"That is later then I would have thought and I know Essex Phil said white paper is a just a proposal but I expect this paper to be fully implemented and approved into law within weeks of been published at the latest based on all the pressure for this."
I'll have a max bet on the Overs please.
It is unlikely (though not impossible) that substantive new legislation in this area will be in place before the next election.
Which is due in December 2024.
Is probability not part of a statistics degree?
Actually @Essexphil, the date for the next General Election under the Fixed Term Act is Thursday 2nd May 2024. This is because the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 sets the next date of the general election at five-year interval on the first Thursday of May.
"That is later then I would have thought and I know Essex Phil said white paper is a just a proposal but I expect this paper to be fully implemented and approved into law within weeks of been published at the latest based on all the pressure for this."
I'll have a max bet on the Overs please.
It is unlikely (though not impossible) that substantive new legislation in this area will be in place before the next election.
Which is due in December 2024.
Is probability not part of a statistics degree?
Actually @Essexphil, the date for the next General Election under the Fixed Term Act is Thursday 2nd May 2024. This is because the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 sets the next date of the general election at five-year interval on the first Thursday of May.
Yes probability is part of a statistics degree, however there really is not a clear quantitative way of assigning probability to this. Maybe I am too influenced by media headlines from anti gambling lobbyists which gives me the impression that everyone wants something done about this right now.
I obv wont be taking bets on either side of this.
I cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election I would be very surprised regardless of what bookies say. With the wantem contempt and then with a certain april fools joke they pulled recently, I am like are you serious wtaf. For those that dont know they had an april fools joke where they said people in council tax bands A-D would get a £150 rebate. Well I had already checked my bank balance before I even saw the status so was not fooled by this. (I am council tax band A-D).
I am fortunate enough to have a relationship with several different employers where I if I want or need it I can work an 80 hour week or just take as much time of as I want/need. Its low pay but its work when works for me. (whilst I complete my degree)
Plus I have a hobby that pays me rather then me paying for it (poker)
so I am not on the bread line so to speak, however how would someone who cant afford to pay their rent whom is really struggling think about such an april fools prank? when their policies have been in favour of the rich and screw those at the bottom?
I wont take bets on this despite The fact I think it is good odds as Bookies have tories as a favourite, the reason been i dont like tying my money up for long periods of time.
If the Tories are silly enough to call for an election tomorrow I will be placing bets on labour.
I think this will be game over for gambling though I see labour been socialist implementing all the extreme restrictions on gambling. Tories may or may not do it. Labour definitely will.
Yes probability is part of a statistics degree, however there really is not a clear quantitative way of assigning probability to this. Maybe I am too influenced by media headlines from anti gambling lobbyists which gives me the impression that everyone wants something done about this right now.
I obv wont be taking bets on either side of this.
I cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election I would be very surprised regardless of what bookies say. With the wantem contempt and then with a certain april fools joke they pulled recently, I am like are you serious wtaf. For those that dont know they had an april fools joke where they said people in council tax bands A-D would get a £150 rebate. Well I had already checked my bank balance before I even saw the status so was not fooled by this. (I am council tax band A-D).
I am fortunate enough to have a relationship with several different employers where I if I want or need it I can work an 80 hour week or just take as much time of as I want/need. Its low pay but its work when works for me. (whilst I complete my degree)
Plus I have a hobby that pays me rather then me paying for it (poker)
so I am not on the bread line so to speak, however how would someone who cant afford to pay their rent whom is really struggling think about such an april fools prank? when their policies have been in favour of the rich and screw those at the bottom?
I wont take bets on this despite The fact I think it is good odds as Bookies have tories as a favourite, the reason been i dont like tying my money up for long periods of time.
If the Tories are silly enough to call for an election tomorrow I will be placing bets on labour.
I think this will be game over for gambling though I see labour been socialist implementing all the extreme restrictions on gambling. Tories may or may not do it. Labour definitely will.
Yes probability is part of a statistics degree, however there really is not a clear quantitative way of assigning probability to this. Maybe I am too influenced by media headlines from anti gambling lobbyists which gives me the impression that everyone wants something done about this right now.
I obv wont be taking bets on either side of this.
I cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election I would be very surprised regardless of what bookies say. With the wantem contempt and then with a certain april fools joke they pulled recently, I am like are you serious wtaf. For those that dont know they had an april fools joke where they said people in council tax bands A-D would get a £150 rebate. Well I had already checked my bank balance before I even saw the status so was not fooled by this. (I am council tax band A-D).
I am fortunate enough to have a relationship with several different employers where I if I want or need it I can work an 80 hour week or just take as much time of as I want/need. Its low pay but its work when works for me. (whilst I complete my degree)
Plus I have a hobby that pays me rather then me paying for it (poker)
so I am not on the bread line so to speak, however how would someone who cant afford to pay their rent whom is really struggling think about such an april fools prank? when their policies have been in favour of the rich and screw those at the bottom?
I wont take bets on this despite The fact I think it is good odds as Bookies have tories as a favourite, the reason been i dont like tying my money up for long periods of time.
If the Tories are silly enough to call for an election tomorrow I will be placing bets on labour.
I think this will be game over for gambling though I see labour been socialist implementing all the extreme restrictions on gambling. Tories may or may not do it. Labour definitely will.
The Tories won't call an election tomorrow, that is for sure. But do not underestimate how ruthless the Tories will be in keeping hold of power when the time comes. Either a leadership change and/or a tax giveaway (almost a given within this current parliament).
The swing required for a Labour overall majority will not be easy either plus they have an unerring ability to shoot themselves in the foot by having a manifesto that discusses taxing the better off (those with property, savings, shares etc). They (Labour) always seem to forget that virtually all voters (note, I say voters not adults who can vote) are at heart aspirational and want to know that they can get the very things that Labour will attack.
That said, there are fires to put out all over the place - NHS waiting lists, higher utilities, higher costs at the pumps, house prices soaring, rent prices soaring but I most certainly wouldn't write off the Tories, with two years to go, just yet. Let's see where we are at the end of 2023.
The Tories won't call an election tomorrow, that is for sure. But do not underestimate how ruthless the Tories will be in keeping hold of power when the time comes. Either a leadership change and/or a tax giveaway (almost a given within this current parliament).
The swing required for a Labour overall majority will not be easy either plus they have an unerring ability to shoot themselves in the foot by having a manifesto that discusses taxing the better off (those with property, savings, shares etc). They (Labour) always seem to forget that virtually all voters (note, I say voters not adults who can vote) are at heart aspirational and want to know that they can get the very things that Labour will attack.
That said, there are fires to put out all over the place - NHS waiting lists, higher utilities, higher costs at the pumps, house prices soaring, rent prices soaring but I most certainly wouldn't write off the Tories, with two years to go, just yet. Let's see where we are at the end of 2023.
Agree with pretty much all of this.
At this stage of an election cycle, Labour should be ahead in the polls by a large margin, not the 2-4% lead at present.
The 1 different factor is likely to be the increased emphasis on utility bills. Traditionally, Mortgages have been much more important than other bills economically. That is no longer the case. It is far easier for the Right/Press to provide scare stories about Mortgages in the future. Than Gas etc right now.
Frankly, I am amazed that Labour are not 15% ahead in the polls. But the fact remains they are not. And bookies don't bet on sentiment.
And don't believe that Labour are any more anti- gambling than the current lot. I genuinely do not understand why wasting money on gambling is necessarily perceived to be worse than drinking, or any other of the countless things people do that are often great in moderation for the vast majority and terrible in excess for a relative few.
On the 24th March 2022 the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act was granted Royal Assent and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed. The PM can again call a General Election whenever they want.
On the 24th March 2022 the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act was granted Royal Assent and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed. The PM can again call a General Election whenever they want.
Which I believe was due to MPs constantly trying to vote against and obstruct brexit.
I wont go into whether Brexit was a good idea or a bad idea or etc as that would rerail this thread and we already have a thread for discussing that. Only that it was not exactly democratic that so many MPS wanted to obstruct brexit when that is what the people voted for.
Comments
I had naively assumed that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act provided for a Fixed Term for the length of a Parliament
The election I mean.
I obv wont be taking bets on either side of this.
I cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election I would be very surprised regardless of what bookies say. With the wantem contempt and then with a certain april fools joke they pulled recently, I am like are you serious wtaf. For those that dont know they had an april fools joke where they said people in council tax bands A-D would get a £150 rebate. Well I had already checked my bank balance before I even saw the status so was not fooled by this. (I am council tax band A-D).
I am fortunate enough to have a relationship with several different employers where I if I want or need it I can work an 80 hour week or just take as much time of as I want/need. Its low pay but its work when works for me. (whilst I complete my degree)
Plus I have a hobby that pays me rather then me paying for it (poker)
so I am not on the bread line so to speak, however how would someone who cant afford to pay their rent whom is really struggling think about such an april fools prank? when their policies have been in favour of the rich and screw those at the bottom?
I wont take bets on this despite The fact I think it is good odds as Bookies have tories as a favourite, the reason been i dont like tying my money up for long periods of time.
If the Tories are silly enough to call for an election tomorrow I will be placing bets on labour.
I think this will be game over for gambling though I see labour been socialist implementing all the extreme restrictions on gambling. Tories may or may not do it. Labour definitely will.
Council Tax rebate;
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/council-tax-rebate-factsheet
When the Government announced the rebate, this had not previously been agreed with local Councils.
Consequently, the actual mechanism for the rebate to be paid had not been worked out, and Council Tax Bills were already being sent out.
There will be a rebate. Although it is worth noting that, if you do not pay be Direct Debit, you will have to apply for the Rebate.
The swing required for a Labour overall majority will not be easy either plus they have an unerring ability to shoot themselves in the foot by having a manifesto that discusses taxing the better off (those with property, savings, shares etc). They (Labour) always seem to forget that virtually all voters (note, I say voters not adults who can vote) are at heart aspirational and want to know that they can get the very things that Labour will attack.
That said, there are fires to put out all over the place - NHS waiting lists, higher utilities, higher costs at the pumps, house prices soaring, rent prices soaring but I most certainly wouldn't write off the Tories, with two years to go, just yet. Let's see where we are at the end of 2023.
At this stage of an election cycle, Labour should be ahead in the polls by a large margin, not the 2-4% lead at present.
The 1 different factor is likely to be the increased emphasis on utility bills. Traditionally, Mortgages have been much more important than other bills economically. That is no longer the case. It is far easier for the Right/Press to provide scare stories about Mortgages in the future. Than Gas etc right now.
Frankly, I am amazed that Labour are not 15% ahead in the polls. But the fact remains they are not. And bookies don't bet on sentiment.
And don't believe that Labour are any more anti- gambling than the current lot. I genuinely do not understand why wasting money on gambling is necessarily perceived to be worse than drinking, or any other of the countless things people do that are often great in moderation for the vast majority and terrible in excess for a relative few.
And decidedly undemocratic...
I wont go into whether Brexit was a good idea or a bad idea or etc as that would rerail this thread and we already have a thread for discussing that. Only that it was not exactly democratic that so many MPS wanted to obstruct brexit when that is what the people voted for.