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Football betting on accumulators.
coo1-um
Member Posts: 2,947
During my just for fun thread (i call in that when i'm losing) whilst posting yesterdays win treble @spartathen mentioned a couple of things that got me thinking more about it. tbh i bet for fun and go on how i feel and only if i have an amount in my account that i am comfortable to be able to lose and still play some poker.
here is my 12 month betting graph without any win/loss figures.
Anyway i divulge.
i was interested how others approach this, and what their thoughts are on a good approach to adopt. and looking forward to having a better understanding for all for the start of next season I have added my personal early thoughts on this.
Should we be looking at the last x games, if so what is this figure? 4, 5, 6+. 5
If a team playing at home should home form only count. Combination of all and home or away.
what should take precedence form or points gained last x games. if looking at last 5 games min of 9 pts for a team to win and max for for a team to lose.
Should goals scored or conceded in recents games be considered. this should be considered in some context
How much does current injury issues at clubs pay into our decision. not sure i would consider this although if a key player is returning maybe it should.
Does head v head info count for anything. again this would not be a consideration for me.
Are there any other questions that need to be considered, is looking at trading a better option @TheEdge949 seems to have a grasp on this but i would have no clue where to start, i guess it starts using some of the questions asked above.
here is my 12 month betting graph without any win/loss figures.
Anyway i divulge.
i was interested how others approach this, and what their thoughts are on a good approach to adopt. and looking forward to having a better understanding for all for the start of next season I have added my personal early thoughts on this.
Should we be looking at the last x games, if so what is this figure? 4, 5, 6+. 5
If a team playing at home should home form only count. Combination of all and home or away.
what should take precedence form or points gained last x games. if looking at last 5 games min of 9 pts for a team to win and max for for a team to lose.
Should goals scored or conceded in recents games be considered. this should be considered in some context
How much does current injury issues at clubs pay into our decision. not sure i would consider this although if a key player is returning maybe it should.
Does head v head info count for anything. again this would not be a consideration for me.
Are there any other questions that need to be considered, is looking at trading a better option @TheEdge949 seems to have a grasp on this but i would have no clue where to start, i guess it starts using some of the questions asked above.
Comments
All of the recent form and every other parameter you can think of will be run through algorithms, and sometimes quantum algorithms, by sharp punters and books, and a price is formulated. This makes markets very very efficient.
Tom, **** or Harry looking at the last few games is never going to win against quantum computing and the worlds sharpest bettors.
There are small edges to be had in smaller leagues and sports by those who are literal experts in that area.
The only other edges are by finding soft odds in soft books.
However they are also for me irresistible that is I regularly place them and frequently lose or at least don’t get my money back.
Football no different from racing you have to look for value!
But value is built around what, recent form,goals scored,wether a team has anything to play for esp this time of year. The list goes on.
However there is much more choice nowadays to build a acca on other events rather than home win draw away win.
Correct score for example can be put together for a very modest sum to win a huge amount,although I am yet to win huge.
Btts and result btts can increase the odds but are still difficult to land but offer the compensation of a win result outside of 1-x-2
Best advice I can give is stick to singles and combine selections in a small stake acca.
Good luck.
Was never planning on making a living from it (otherwise i would have put a little effort into poker study over the years), just a double or win treble, from smallish stakes whilst trying to use a little knowledge.
@kapowblamz definitely has a point regarding not just going with the form of the last 4 or 5 games, but surely a little research is better than going with the odds.
wycombe v sheff wed today would be a good example of this.
BTTS, 1+ corners each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team @5/2
should be a better bet than the draw at 23/10
How many times do you watch a game and are able to predict the flow, or that a goal is imminent or that the underdog are looking good. That's why being able to watch the games where you have open positions in is a must.
Trading the basic strategies is straightforward, although that doesn't mean risk free.
Ben Michaels has several short vids on you tube see sportstradinglife. These are easy to follow and jargon free and cover all the fundamental strategies.
I know I started with a miniscule bank of £30 but its now at £48 which is a 62.5% profit net of commission so far. The thing is that profit % is the same regardless of stake size so if I'm staking £200 0r £250 per trade the profit would still be 62.5%.
Even if you don't trade using the exchanges for betting gives so much more value as the book works to 99.8% - 100.2%.
The only drawback is that you can't have accas or RABs on the exchanges.
Suppose you have £10 on a 7-fold ACCA, like above. And assume the odds were all Evens.
So-Match 1-£20. All £20 goes on to
Match 2-£40. All £40 goes on to
Match 3-£80. All £80 goes on to
Match 4-£160. All £160 goes on to
Match 5-£320. All £320 goes on to
Match 6-£640. All £640 goes on to
Match 7-£0. Might get your £10 back if you are lucky.
You have given all control to the Bookies. Who amongst us isn't going to consider keeping half the money before Matches 5, 6 or 7?
Another caveat for value betting and accas is that, after those 5 or 6 come in, you then cash out, handing any value, or expected value, you had, straight back to the house.
If i could answer al that i,d be a very good punter.
It all depends how much time you have and how seriously you want to take it. Personally i,ve used subsciption sites for tipping to save time but these were from ppl i,d used for a long time before they started charging. And its often hard to get on their prices so you have to adapt your bets a bit.
Although i punt for a bit of fun and a hobbie i very rarely do accas. Now and again i,ll do a goalscorer acca on a saturday afternoon if i,m watching the results.
Only advice i would give on that is use the tool on oddschecker where it calculates which site will give you the best odds on all selections.
Only other advice would be something a lot of ppl don,t do and its not hard. Use comparison sites like oddschecker or oddmonkey and always check against exchanges to make sure your getting the best price for wahtever you bet on.
Its not all about what you think the outcome will be. Its about - is it overpriced or underpriced.
Another little tip which i don,t follow can apply to poker as well. Stick to the same markets as the prices will become 2nd nature , bit like poker sticking to one format of the game.
GL
However if your really able to consistently make a profit at sports betting it may be an obvious idea not to discuss this on betting site forum where site staff could see and be more inclined to restrict your account.
A lot of poker sites do not care if your winning or losing at poker because the site makes the money regardless. If your winning at sports betting though few if any sites will be happy with that because your only making money of the site. The site does not want to lose money.
I bet on basketball games sometimes to have something to cheer for when watching the game it makes it more exciting. I am very unlikely to be profitable at sports betting on basketball games.
All that been said you should still try to get the best price and sadly Sky often do not offer the best price.
@Doubleme
Just wanted to reassure you that Sky Bet do not have a little man monitoring the Sky Poker Community 24/7. Account restrictions are generally based on data sorting by software programmes.
Right now there are no normal UK books I can get bets on. I have to work through all the different offshore and crypto books which has it's own pitfalls due to no regulation, but you always end up getting paid in the end. Fwiw a lot of the crypto books are very very soft and take big bets.
Wrt to Sky I've never placed any value bets here, because there aren't any.