can anyone work out these odds

prefabman · June 2022

Just been beaten by quads twice in the space of about 12 hands, first has AJ suited against 55 and player hit quads, then AK suited against 22 and same player hit quads within a dozen hands. Cant do the maths

tai-gar · June 2022

2 x 2 x poker x 2 x 2 = poker

I think that's how you do it anyway.

Essexphil · June 2022

Hand 1. you were a slight dog but, for ease of Maths, let's call it 50/50. 2nd hand is genuinely 50/50.

So-odds are about 1 in 4. Or 3/1, if you prefer.

Really doesn't matter how much you lost by. Still the same result.

Essexphil · June 2022

If you really want to know the odds, you need to be precise in the question.

The simple answer is that the chance of getting quads is (assuming see all hands) about 1 in 595.

If the question was that Exactly Hand 1 and exactly Hand 13 must both have the same player getting quads, then that would be 1in (595 squared). A massive number.

Whereas, if you only start counting from the first quads, it is 1 in 595 again. Within the first 12 hands? 1 in 50 (595/12).

Things that sound next to impossible can happen way more than people think.

Essexphil · June 2022

Just 1 more point. to show that statistical improbabilities happen.

In the 2 hands you mentioned, you had AJs and AKs. I don't know what suits they were, but let us (for this example) assume that they are Ah Jh, and As Ks.

The odds of you getting those 2 hands is actually way higher than the 2 sets of quads. It is 1 in (1326 squared).

But that happened too.

Every time we receive 2 hole cards, a 1325/1 chance has happened.

prefabman · June 2022

It just seems that hands like quads and straight flushes happen way too often, the other day I had my first royal flush, six hands later another guy on the table gets a straight flush.

rabdeniro · June 2022

Saw it comin.

Tikay10 · June 2022

prefabman said:
It just seems that hands like quads and straight flushes happen way too often, the other day I had my first royal flush, six hands later another guy on the table gets a straight flush.

Hi prefabman

Welcome to the Forum & congrats on your first Royal Flush. Roughly how long have you been with Sky poker? 9 years or so I believe?

dragon1964 · June 2022

Tikay10 said:

prefabman said:
It just seems that hands like quads and straight flushes happen way too often, the other day I had my first royal flush, six hands later another guy on the table gets a straight flush.
Hi prefabman

Welcome to the Forum & congrats on your first Royal Flush. Roughly how long have you been with Sky poker? 9 years or so I believe?

Ouch!
Subtly done. WP.

UncleNafe · October 2022

Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
UncleNafe	Small blind		100.00	100.00	5320.00
bludspudda	Big blind		200.00	300.00	1275.00
	Your hole cards	A A
FINGERS417	Raise		700.00	1000.00	11155.00
scousestar	Fold
Wardy1654	All-in		3365.00	4365.00	0.00
Tweaks7	Fold
UncleNafe	All-in		5320.00	9685.00	0.00
bludspudda	Fold
FINGERS417	Fold
UncleNafe	Unmatched bet		2055.00	7630.00	2055.00
UncleNafe	Show	A A
Wardy1654	Show	J A
Flop
		4 9 6
Turn
		J
River
		J
Wardy1654	Win	Three Jacks	7630.00		7630.00

Enut · October 2022

UncleNafe said:
Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
UncleNafe Small blind 100.00 100.00 5320.00
bludspudda Big blind 200.00 300.00 1275.00
Your hole cards
A
A
FINGERS417 Raise 700.00 1000.00 11155.00
scousestar Fold
Wardy1654 All-in 3365.00 4365.00 0.00
Tweaks7 Fold
UncleNafe All-in 5320.00 9685.00 0.00
bludspudda Fold
FINGERS417 Fold
UncleNafe Unmatched bet 2055.00 7630.00 2055.00
UncleNafe Show
A
A
Wardy1654 Show
J
A
Flop
4
9
6
Turn
J
River
J
Wardy1654 Win Three Jacks 7630.00 7630.00

That's about as bad as it gets, very unlucky.

Essexphil · October 2022

UncleNafe said:
Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
UncleNafe Small blind 100.00 100.00 5320.00
bludspudda Big blind 200.00 300.00 1275.00
Your hole cards
A
A
FINGERS417 Raise 700.00 1000.00 11155.00
scousestar Fold
Wardy1654 All-in 3365.00 4365.00 0.00
Tweaks7 Fold
UncleNafe All-in 5320.00 9685.00 0.00
bludspudda Fold
FINGERS417 Fold
UncleNafe Unmatched bet 2055.00 7630.00 2055.00
UncleNafe Show
A
A
Wardy1654 Show
J
A
Flop
4
9
6
Turn
J
River
J
Wardy1654 Win Three Jacks 7630.00 7630.00

Maths can say lots of different things. You need to be careful about how you use Maths in poker (and, for that matter, real life).

Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.

No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.

Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.

You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness

Good luck

TheWaddy · October 2022

Essexphil said:
If you really want to know the odds, you need to be precise in the question.

The simple answer is that the chance of getting quads is (assuming see all hands) about 1 in 595.

If the question was that Exactly Hand 1 and exactly Hand 13 must both have the same player getting quads, then that would be 1in (595 squared). A massive number.

Whereas, if you only start counting from the first quads, it is 1 in 595 again. Within the first 12 hands? 1 in 50 (595/12).

Things that sound next to impossible can happen way more than people think.

He forgot to mention 'online' it can happen way more than people think.... or indeed explain....

Essexphil · October 2022

TheWaddy said:

Essexphil said:
If you really want to know the odds, you need to be precise in the question.

The simple answer is that the chance of getting quads is (assuming see all hands) about 1 in 595.

If the question was that Exactly Hand 1 and exactly Hand 13 must both have the same player getting quads, then that would be 1in (595 squared). A massive number.

Whereas, if you only start counting from the first quads, it is 1 in 595 again. Within the first 12 hands? 1 in 50 (595/12).

Things that sound next to impossible can happen way more than people think.
He forgot to mention 'online' it can happen way more than people think.... or indeed explain....

It happens exactly as often. No more and no less.

And anyone who thinks differently should not be playing online. Nor should they be allowed to.

TheWaddy · October 2022

Essexphil said:

UncleNafe said:
Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
UncleNafe Small blind 100.00 100.00 5320.00
bludspudda Big blind 200.00 300.00 1275.00
Your hole cards
A
A
FINGERS417 Raise 700.00 1000.00 11155.00
scousestar Fold
Wardy1654 All-in 3365.00 4365.00 0.00
Tweaks7 Fold
UncleNafe All-in 5320.00 9685.00 0.00
bludspudda Fold
FINGERS417 Fold
UncleNafe Unmatched bet 2055.00 7630.00 2055.00
UncleNafe Show
A
A
Wardy1654 Show
J
A
Flop
4
9
6
Turn
J
River
J
Wardy1654 Win Three Jacks 7630.00 7630.00
Maths can say lots of different things. You need to be careful about how you use Maths in poker (and, for that matter, real life).

Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.

No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.

Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.

You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness

Good luck

He did, of course, forget to mention the 99.9% chance of you winning the hand after the flop..... and having to be specifically those two black jacks to lose.... but thats the 'beauty' of the online game... i mean the game......

MISTY4ME · October 2022

TheWaddy said:

Essexphil said:

UncleNafe said:
Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
UncleNafe Small blind 100.00 100.00 5320.00
bludspudda Big blind 200.00 300.00 1275.00
Your hole cards
A
A
FINGERS417 Raise 700.00 1000.00 11155.00
scousestar Fold
Wardy1654 All-in 3365.00 4365.00 0.00
Tweaks7 Fold
UncleNafe All-in 5320.00 9685.00 0.00
bludspudda Fold
FINGERS417 Fold
UncleNafe Unmatched bet 2055.00 7630.00 2055.00
UncleNafe Show
A
A
Wardy1654 Show
J
A
Flop
4
9
6
Turn
J
River
J
Wardy1654 Win Three Jacks 7630.00 7630.00
Maths can say lots of different things. You need to be careful about how you use Maths in poker (and, for that matter, real life).

Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.

No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.

Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.

You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness

Good luck
He did, of course, forget to mention the 99.9% chance of you winning the hand after the flop..... and having to be specifically those two black jacks to lose.... but thats the 'beauty' of the online game... i mean the game......

Pretty sure your Maths (and percentages) are wrong @TheWaddy ..... not by much, but WRONG all the same

TheWaddy · October 2022

MISTY4ME said:

TheWaddy said:

Essexphil said:

UncleNafe said:
Hi All

Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths

I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
UncleNafe Small blind 100.00 100.00 5320.00
bludspudda Big blind 200.00 300.00 1275.00
Your hole cards
A
A
FINGERS417 Raise 700.00 1000.00 11155.00
scousestar Fold
Wardy1654 All-in 3365.00 4365.00 0.00
Tweaks7 Fold
UncleNafe All-in 5320.00 9685.00 0.00
bludspudda Fold
FINGERS417 Fold
UncleNafe Unmatched bet 2055.00 7630.00 2055.00
UncleNafe Show
A
A
Wardy1654 Show
J
A
Flop
4
9
6
Turn
J
River
J
Wardy1654 Win Three Jacks 7630.00 7630.00
Maths can say lots of different things. You need to be careful about how you use Maths in poker (and, for that matter, real life).

Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.

No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.

Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.

You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness

Good luck
He did, of course, forget to mention the 99.9% chance of you winning the hand after the flop..... and having to be specifically those two black jacks to lose.... but thats the 'beauty' of the online game... i mean the game......
Pretty sure your Maths (and percentages) are wrong @TheWaddy ..... not by much, but WRONG all the same

What you think now?

TheWaddy · October 2022

Essexphil said:

TheWaddy said:

Essexphil said:
If you really want to know the odds, you need to be precise in the question.

The simple answer is that the chance of getting quads is (assuming see all hands) about 1 in 595.

If the question was that Exactly Hand 1 and exactly Hand 13 must both have the same player getting quads, then that would be 1in (595 squared). A massive number.

Whereas, if you only start counting from the first quads, it is 1 in 595 again. Within the first 12 hands? 1 in 50 (595/12).

Things that sound next to impossible can happen way more than people think.
He forgot to mention 'online' it can happen way more than people think.... or indeed explain....
It happens exactly as often. No more and no less.

And anyone who thinks differently should not be playing online. Nor should they be allowed to.

Please explain why you think this.

I have deposited £20 first time i joined, none since. I have withdrawn large amounts a few times. I am clearly not losing more than i can afford. I play an online form of gambling, of which there are many... i could choose any.... of which the vast majority are not random and they tell you this, with a return to player percentage.

Why do i have to believe in this particular one, (when the maths tell me not to)... in order to play, when i dont have to believe in any other form of gambling, that what im seeing is a random occurence... eg slots, bingo, roulette...etc etc People play these games knowing they are not random, so why cant i play mine?

All other forms of online gambling are geared to being set up for the house to win and are not random. But people play them, despite knowing they can not win long term. Yet you think im the one with some kind of problem? Bizarre claim.

goldnballz · October 2022

^^^

what an utter clown you are....

I am amazed they still let you spout your nonsense, day in, day out on here.

TheWaddy · October 2022

I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

MISTY4ME · October 2022

I can't see where the calculation of % is on your piccy..........but 2 cards out of 45 and then 1/44, according to my maths thats a 1% chance of winning. Very small..... but 10 times more than a 0.1% chance of winning I believe

can anyone work out these odds

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