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WORLD CUP 2022 EARLY EXCHANGE MARKETS SHOW LITTLE VALUE IN BACKING ENGLAND
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,686
Quite why Brazil at 6.2 are the favourites is beyond me, especially as they have been as short as 2.32 which is ridiculous although a drift is now occuring as traders start to take advantage of the bettors.
France currently second favourites at 7.6 represent slightly better value as what the market is actually saying is that if we ran this comp 6 and a half times France would win it once. Can't really argue with that.
England are the markets 3rd favourites at 8.2. Really on what evidence is this price value ? This might attract money from traders looking to back to lay but on the evidence of the Nations League performances 11 - 12.5 would surely be more accurate.
Next come
Argentina @ 8.6
Spain @ 9.6
Germany @ 11.5
Netherlands @ 16
Portugal @ 17
Belgium @ 18
Denmark @ 34
That rounds out the current top 10 and for me any of the 10 with the exception of Denmark is better value than England, and Germany and the Netherlands both look attractive at those odds, especially if they can avoid each other until the latter stages.
Brazil, France, Argentina, Spain, Germany have all won the world cup since England last lifted it and Holland have made 2 finals.
With £555,000 already matched in this market there is enough liquidity to say that these are prices that are not going to shift too dramatically unless something unusual happens or there are injuries to key players etc.
Do I want to see England win it ? Yes of course I do and if they did and you are on them I would be made up for you but for me betting is about taking value and I fail to see it here. However, trading requires market volatility and I see areas here that offer potential for that especially during the group stages.
Do you see any value here ? Let me know.
France currently second favourites at 7.6 represent slightly better value as what the market is actually saying is that if we ran this comp 6 and a half times France would win it once. Can't really argue with that.
England are the markets 3rd favourites at 8.2. Really on what evidence is this price value ? This might attract money from traders looking to back to lay but on the evidence of the Nations League performances 11 - 12.5 would surely be more accurate.
Next come
Argentina @ 8.6
Spain @ 9.6
Germany @ 11.5
Netherlands @ 16
Portugal @ 17
Belgium @ 18
Denmark @ 34
That rounds out the current top 10 and for me any of the 10 with the exception of Denmark is better value than England, and Germany and the Netherlands both look attractive at those odds, especially if they can avoid each other until the latter stages.
Brazil, France, Argentina, Spain, Germany have all won the world cup since England last lifted it and Holland have made 2 finals.
With £555,000 already matched in this market there is enough liquidity to say that these are prices that are not going to shift too dramatically unless something unusual happens or there are injuries to key players etc.
Do I want to see England win it ? Yes of course I do and if they did and you are on them I would be made up for you but for me betting is about taking value and I fail to see it here. However, trading requires market volatility and I see areas here that offer potential for that especially during the group stages.
Do you see any value here ? Let me know.
Comments
For me, the Northern European sides represent poor value for money. Not sure Brazil should be that short, either. Argentina for me, followed by Spain & France.