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RNG variance and upswing
Doubleme
Member Posts: 2,213
in Poker Chat
So last night I won the main!!!!! before this nice result I had been saying to my girlfriend "looks like this is going to be a bad one I am running really bad today" Of course no matter how good someone is if you win the main you were lucky that night, I am sure better players will win it more often then weaker players and run over a long period of time luck isnt a factor but on any given night the individual had to be lucky that night.
So I guess in the end I was lucky last night. I went to look for the who won what thread and noticed it was for the day prior but noticed Tikay had seem frustrated with constant threads about RNG and people claiming rig so thought I would do a little favour and put a comment out there. (briefly no I am not about to say the site is rigged just the opposite)
The first thing is that few people would actually know how to test for a rig, and if you did it would take a lot of effort to compile the data and calculate the relevant statistics test. However one issue is there are far too many potential ways a site could rig if they really wanted to that its not realistic to ask a site to prove the game is not rigged.
A good analogy would be If the police were to turn up at your door arresting you for committing "some serious crime within the last 3 months" they dont say exactly what crime just that it was some serious crime within the last 3 months in your area and now rather then having to proof you guilty of something you have to prove yourself innocent of everything. Good luck with that there may be a tiny minority who could do that but most of us go down in that situation.
This is why it was utterly ridiculous when someone asked for video proving sky was not rigged, such a video if it was ever made would likely be hundreds if not thousands of hours long, sure they could briefly run of all the statistical tests they did test for varying hypothesis but someone could likely come up with one hypothesis they didnt test or claim the statistics tests were made up so they would likely need to show every single hand in the test been added to the data etc.
I really think though that people who claim rigged need to take a step back and think about exactly why would a site do this? I have heard some claim in the past that the site rigs it against winning players so that the bad players can keep up more and the site can take more rake. I have also heard people claim that the site is rigged in favour of those that play more and earn more points. Which when broken down is literally people claiming a rig for both sides (eg claiming its rigged in favour of the regs and claiming its rigged in favour of the casuals) I have heard other rig theories to but you get the point. Embarrassingly there was a point in my poker life near the beginning where I was a riggy however as soon as I started to test for my rig hypothesis I noticed whatever tests I did showed no evidence of a rig. Eventually I worked on my game and got better, admittedly what I tested for at the time was simple and if a site was to rig it like that they would be easily found out, for a poker site to build a rig which would have very little chance of been found out would require a lot of advanced programming and tech people sworn to secrecy, it would be much more costly then attempting to build an unbiased RNG and would have the difficulty of having to keep large numbers of programmers quite and sworn to secrecy Which when you think about is absurd. these rig theories literally remind me of Mitchel and Webb conspiracy theory clips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5muY64Oyp10
I can as any poker player can run of a list of bad beats which if had not happened I would have been up a lot more or not down on this or that random night. However every single time I have had an MTT day where I was up more then £250 it involved me getting all my chips in behind and sucking out. Am I just going to forget about those and only remember when I was the one who got unlucky. Last night when I won the main I got it all in short stacked earlier on against a very strong reg when I had 76 suited and they had KQ and the flop was 985 had that not happened I would have been out without even min cashing (unless you count bounties). I could mention the time I was chip leader in the £3.30 reload and close to the final table stage I got in a 3 way all in against QT and 55 when I held AA and both hands sucked out on me crippling my stack and eventually leading me to finish with only a small profit in that tourney.
In games of chance you will have strings of luck and strings of bad luck. when You run bad it is easy to forget about the times you ran well or easy to just not notice the good runs at all. there are plenty of occasions I have seen a very weak player build a massive stack and plenty of times I have seen a very strong player bust very early. If I knew nothing or very little about poker on those times I could mistake the strong player for a noob and the weak player for the pro. In a good netflix series I have been watching recently called Cobra Kai one of the kids got beat up in a fight and the villain told him no you didn't lose the fight because the fight is not over until you say it is. A dark message in that context but in life and in poker its not really the individual hand or game but a long series of games.
I am a strong believer in freedom, freedom of choice freedom of speech etc etc. If I had the power to ban people from playing poker for their own good I would very rarely do so, as this would go against my core beliefs of freedom. In truly exceptional cases where I could see they had a major problem I guess even I would put the ban hammer down but these would be exceptional cases. What however I would say to many of the riggies is, it really does not appear that you are enjoying this activity if the game stresses you out that much maybe you would be happier if you quit and left the game behind.
Anyway I am taking my girlfriend to her favourite restaurant to celebrate the nice win, the Japanese place. This is the restaurant that is completely traditional Japanese looking does Japanese food and all the customer facing staff are Japanese (I cant comment on Kitchen staff as cannot see these people). So again I am left wondering am I supposed to leave a tip or not? (in Japan its offensive to leave a tip but over here it is the norm so dont know I did mention this on the forums last time)
So I guess in the end I was lucky last night. I went to look for the who won what thread and noticed it was for the day prior but noticed Tikay had seem frustrated with constant threads about RNG and people claiming rig so thought I would do a little favour and put a comment out there. (briefly no I am not about to say the site is rigged just the opposite)
The first thing is that few people would actually know how to test for a rig, and if you did it would take a lot of effort to compile the data and calculate the relevant statistics test. However one issue is there are far too many potential ways a site could rig if they really wanted to that its not realistic to ask a site to prove the game is not rigged.
A good analogy would be If the police were to turn up at your door arresting you for committing "some serious crime within the last 3 months" they dont say exactly what crime just that it was some serious crime within the last 3 months in your area and now rather then having to proof you guilty of something you have to prove yourself innocent of everything. Good luck with that there may be a tiny minority who could do that but most of us go down in that situation.
This is why it was utterly ridiculous when someone asked for video proving sky was not rigged, such a video if it was ever made would likely be hundreds if not thousands of hours long, sure they could briefly run of all the statistical tests they did test for varying hypothesis but someone could likely come up with one hypothesis they didnt test or claim the statistics tests were made up so they would likely need to show every single hand in the test been added to the data etc.
I really think though that people who claim rigged need to take a step back and think about exactly why would a site do this? I have heard some claim in the past that the site rigs it against winning players so that the bad players can keep up more and the site can take more rake. I have also heard people claim that the site is rigged in favour of those that play more and earn more points. Which when broken down is literally people claiming a rig for both sides (eg claiming its rigged in favour of the regs and claiming its rigged in favour of the casuals) I have heard other rig theories to but you get the point. Embarrassingly there was a point in my poker life near the beginning where I was a riggy however as soon as I started to test for my rig hypothesis I noticed whatever tests I did showed no evidence of a rig. Eventually I worked on my game and got better, admittedly what I tested for at the time was simple and if a site was to rig it like that they would be easily found out, for a poker site to build a rig which would have very little chance of been found out would require a lot of advanced programming and tech people sworn to secrecy, it would be much more costly then attempting to build an unbiased RNG and would have the difficulty of having to keep large numbers of programmers quite and sworn to secrecy Which when you think about is absurd. these rig theories literally remind me of Mitchel and Webb conspiracy theory clips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5muY64Oyp10I can as any poker player can run of a list of bad beats which if had not happened I would have been up a lot more or not down on this or that random night. However every single time I have had an MTT day where I was up more then £250 it involved me getting all my chips in behind and sucking out. Am I just going to forget about those and only remember when I was the one who got unlucky. Last night when I won the main I got it all in short stacked earlier on against a very strong reg when I had 76 suited and they had KQ and the flop was 985 had that not happened I would have been out without even min cashing (unless you count bounties). I could mention the time I was chip leader in the £3.30 reload and close to the final table stage I got in a 3 way all in against QT and 55 when I held AA and both hands sucked out on me crippling my stack and eventually leading me to finish with only a small profit in that tourney.
In games of chance you will have strings of luck and strings of bad luck. when You run bad it is easy to forget about the times you ran well or easy to just not notice the good runs at all. there are plenty of occasions I have seen a very weak player build a massive stack and plenty of times I have seen a very strong player bust very early. If I knew nothing or very little about poker on those times I could mistake the strong player for a noob and the weak player for the pro. In a good netflix series I have been watching recently called Cobra Kai one of the kids got beat up in a fight and the villain told him no you didn't lose the fight because the fight is not over until you say it is. A dark message in that context but in life and in poker its not really the individual hand or game but a long series of games.
I am a strong believer in freedom, freedom of choice freedom of speech etc etc. If I had the power to ban people from playing poker for their own good I would very rarely do so, as this would go against my core beliefs of freedom. In truly exceptional cases where I could see they had a major problem I guess even I would put the ban hammer down but these would be exceptional cases. What however I would say to many of the riggies is, it really does not appear that you are enjoying this activity if the game stresses you out that much maybe you would be happier if you quit and left the game behind.
Anyway I am taking my girlfriend to her favourite restaurant to celebrate the nice win, the Japanese place. This is the restaurant that is completely traditional Japanese looking does Japanese food and all the customer facing staff are Japanese (I cant comment on Kitchen staff as cannot see these people). So again I am left wondering am I supposed to leave a tip or not? (in Japan its offensive to leave a tip but over here it is the norm so dont know I did mention this on the forums last time)
Comments
"for a poker site to build a rig which would have very little chance of been found out would require a lot of advanced programming and tech people sworn to secrecy, it would be much more costly then attempting to build an unbiased RNG and would have the difficulty of having to keep large numbers of programmers quite and sworn to secrecy"
Nail on head. The Tim Hat brigade conveniently ignore this every time. Literally hundreds of company staff would have to be in the know, many of whom may have left the Business under a cloud. And yet there has never been a single whistleblower on this or any other site as to a rigged RNG. Sky Poker can't even manage antes or Tourney Tickets, so quite how they'd be able to mess with the RNG such that it would favour certain players is a ridiculous assumption. Best thing to do is ignore those who make these unsubstantiated claims. Which most people do.
@Doubleme
"So I guess in the end I was lucky last night. I went to look for the who won what thread and noticed it was for the day prior"
Today's thread, for last night's results, is not up yet. It's a Lite version today, as I am experimenting with the thread, trying new things, but I will make an exception for last night's Main as I'm so pleased for you.
On the subject of tipping, the short answer is to unobtrusively ask the restaurant. Calmly say would like to tip, don't want to cause any offence, what would they suggest.
PS-well done on the win
Enjoy your winnings and meal.
if I did say 2 £22 games and a £33 game and lost them outright that puts me into the negative, of course if I win the main that puts me massively into the positive.
Sky Mtts is not enough profit for me so I usually play on another site at the same time, I was recently experimenting with double or nothings and whilst my win rate is improving in these I noticed it did lead to me making some key mistakes in MTTS so not sure if it is that works maybe its just adapting and maybe that is the route I go long term but next week I think I want to experiment with spin and goes and sky MTTS.
If I can find a workable way to been able to have an expected value of £175 plus a night then I can throw in all the £22 and £33s etc I am trying to improve my game/multi tabling to the point where I am making more then £200 a day but I am not at this point yet. I think for now I will try to sat into the main every night I am playing and if I make it I play if not then not. Then hopefully depending on how things are progressing I just play my usual but buy directly into the main (sunday major been an exception because quite a bit more then the others) and if things improve further I just play the 22s and 33s.