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Goal Difference and Betting
Essexphil
Member Posts: 8,845
It is always difficult looking for an edge v the bookies.
One thing that I have noticed is that bookmakers tend to underestimate the importance of Goal Difference as a guide as to how a club may fare in the 2nd half of the season.
Take the Premier League as an example.
For the Top 4, the table says 1. Arsenal 2. Man City 3. Newcastle 4. Man Utd 5. Spurs 6. Liverpool
Oddschecker says 1. Man City 2. Arsenal 3. Man Utd 4. Liverpool 5. Newcastle 6. Spurs
Goal Difference suggests otherwise:- 1. Man City (+29) 2. Arsenal (+26) 3. Newcastle (+21) 4. Liverpool (+12) 5. Spurs (+12, played a game more) 6= Man Utd/Brighton (+7)
Newcastle are 11/10 to be Top 4. Looks like value. To a lesser extent, Spurs look attractive at 11/4. Odds against, but not 11/4.
Whereas Liverpool at Evens, and particularly Man Utd at 4/6 represent (IMO) poor odds.
An outside punt? Chelsea look large at 7/1 to be Top 4-they are only 3 points behind Liverpool, who are Evens.
One thing that I have noticed is that bookmakers tend to underestimate the importance of Goal Difference as a guide as to how a club may fare in the 2nd half of the season.
Take the Premier League as an example.
For the Top 4, the table says 1. Arsenal 2. Man City 3. Newcastle 4. Man Utd 5. Spurs 6. Liverpool
Oddschecker says 1. Man City 2. Arsenal 3. Man Utd 4. Liverpool 5. Newcastle 6. Spurs
Goal Difference suggests otherwise:- 1. Man City (+29) 2. Arsenal (+26) 3. Newcastle (+21) 4. Liverpool (+12) 5. Spurs (+12, played a game more) 6= Man Utd/Brighton (+7)
Newcastle are 11/10 to be Top 4. Looks like value. To a lesser extent, Spurs look attractive at 11/4. Odds against, but not 11/4.
Whereas Liverpool at Evens, and particularly Man Utd at 4/6 represent (IMO) poor odds.
An outside punt? Chelsea look large at 7/1 to be Top 4-they are only 3 points behind Liverpool, who are Evens.
Comments
@Essexphil
Interesting post Phil, I love chewing the cud on this sort of stuff.
Don't disagree with much of your post, but my concern with Chelsea would be Goal; Difference, theirs is only +1. Which means, to my way of thinking, they are effectively a point WORSE off than the table suggests, as all the other main contenders have significantly better GD.
1. No way they're not going to sign a new striker this month-the ones they have look ill-suited to the Prem, or past it
2. Their next 6 games-Liverpool away looks tough. But Fulham-Home & Away, Palace (H), West Ham (A) & Southampton (H). Suspect they will be rather shorter odds after those 6.
They look 4/1 to me.
The next couple of games could really alter league positions especially Arsenal who have spurs and city to come.
Newcastle have perhaps the easier fixtures leicester Fulham at home they are in prime spot to finish top 4 although long way to go.
Can’t see my lot lfc getting near top 4 unless Utd Arsenal or Newcastle fail spectaculary.
Arsenal may well fade. But they have the points on the board. Be most surprised if they do not finish top 4. Suspect they may be 2nd, comfortably clear of a bunch between 3rd-6th. Still, you never know-more Spursy than Spurs
Newcastle? Never been in this position before. Think the key may well be who they sign this month, as the squad looks thin.
Man Utd? They look better than in the last 3-4 years. But that is still 1 fragile looking team.
If Newcastle, or more likely Man Utd falter, then Liverpool & Spurs are the likeliest. In my view, about equally likely-Spurs have more points, but Liverpool (for all the recent negativity) have a better team.
The next 4 games are pivotal for Spurs-Arsenal at home, then Fulham sandwiching Man City away and home. 6+ points from those 4 games, and we are in with a great shout. Because we have a run of (relatively ) easy fixtures between 11th Feb and 22nd April (with just 4 games left then)
An outside punt? Chelsea look large at 7/1 to be Top 4-they are only 3 points behind Liverpool, who are Evens.
Interesting post Phil ........I don't really bet on footy but CHELSEA aren't scoring at present, and I think they'll continue to struggle even if they do manage to sign a decent striker ........ I would much rather back Potter's Old side, BRIGHTON (who are scoring for fun) to sneak into 4th ......gotta be good odds (20/1 Best price)
I like Joao Felix as well who's just signed on loan and you can be sure they,ll be spending in the window.
I can see Spurs slipping up ( A lot of unhappy fans atm, with the way there playing)
And it still amazes me how Sean Longstaff starts for Newcastle. Can,t see them keeping up with top 4
Still a gamble for Chelsea but what a squad and when Potter does figure out his best team they will move forward again (if he gets the time)
Interesting post Phil ........I don't really bet on footy but CHELSEA aren't scoring at present, and I think they'll continue to struggle even if they do manage to sign a decent striker ........ I would much rather back Potter's Old side, BRIGHTON (who are scoring for fun) to sneak into 4th ......gotta be good odds (20/1 Best price)
Brighton need to stop losing players. Looks like Trossard might be next
Brighton need to stop losing players. Looks like Trossard might be next
I know what you mean.
But they seem to have a happy knack of getting big fees for players who looked a lot better at Brighton than they do now. The last 3 being Bissouma, Cucurella and Maupay. Trossard is clearly not wanted by their Manager.
Chelsea won't give their Manager time. They never do.
Nathan Jones is 8/1 to be the next PL Manager to get the tin tack, & Southampton are at home to Manchester City tonight. That price won't last if they get a pasting tonight.
A big game for both managers
Can't say I've ever seen it before. It usually goes 20/1, 22/1, 25/1, 33/1.
@lucy4
Good spot, I can certainly think of worse bets. Has to be done before the weekend though, as you suggest.
Football, eh?
You need to squeeze 28/1 in there