should jj fold here?

green_beer

player. Action. cards. amount. pot. balance.

3barrels Small blind 1500.00 1500.00 61250.92
green_beer Big blind 3000.00 4500.00 63534.40

Your hole cards J J




gamekeep69 Fold
toosa Fold
bbMike Fold

3barrels All-in 61250.92 65750.92 0.00
green_beer Call 59750.92 125501.84 3783.48

3barrels Show

9
A


green_beer Show

J
J


Flop


5
A
3


Turn


4


River


7


3barrels Win Pair of Aces (**** hahaha)


i pondered folding for 2 secs, obviously losing makes you think - shoulda just folded- but felt so late in the tourney, sure there was 10 ppl left, a call was always correct with a big pair. In my mind I'm thinking you cant win the tourney if all you do is fold.

Just wondering if other people woulda folded to the aggro in that spot?


ps. this is the first time ive ever posted a hand

Asho28

Hi @green_beer

No I'm never folding in this spot. 20BBs is quite a big shove blind vs blind, but they can definitely have worse pocket pairs, Ace X hands etc. that we're in good shape against. Qs, Ks and As shouldn't be open-shoving blind vs blind for that amount anyway. We're almost always ahead.

I note you say that 10 people were left - had we already cashed, and if not, how many were paid? Regardless, I don't envisage a scenario where we are meant to fold Js here.

Very unlucky on losing the hand - got it in ahead and that's sometimes all you can do.

green_beer

thank asho, i can go to bed happy now, I was already in the money.

gogogadget

Agreed, GTO says fold here I reckon, avoid clashing with large stacks, but for me I play for the win rather than the ladder up so the chance with JJ to hit 40bb is too appealing here. Load of hands they could have vs the 3 you don’t want to see. This doesn’t take into account anything you’ve been noting down throughout the game, but even with notes it’s a tough fold.
Obvs open to being put in my place by anyone that thinks different 😎😎
Over the moon to see A9 flipped over

burden09

i dont think wether u was calling or folding u wasnt going too win it anyways coz sky poker has the winners picked already so if u was going too win it would off held so coz it didnt u knew u wasnt going too win it so u shudda just ladddered for better prize money lol

JammyFker

Unless you were both 1 and 2 in stack size with everyone else a distance behind this could be a situation to make an ICM fold, but this is highly unlikely. Most times unless this was a very unique situation where 9th was gtd 1 million for example in the WSOP, it will be a call.

Here’s the thing about pocket jacks: Versus any two random cards they are very, very strong. In fact jacks are a 77% favorite to win against any two randomly selected cards.

If you are considering folding a hand as strong here as JJ (top3-4%) you would be to easily exploited long term. You will only be dealt a better hand about 1.4%. The other reason for this or even considering it maybe you were playing out of your comfort level. At most stakes this should be a very easy call.

For example Here’s a look at the equity of Pocket Jacks – the statistics on how often you’ll win the hand – depending on the number of players at the table:

10 Handed = 19%
9 Handed = 22%
8 Handed = 25%
7 Handed = 29%
6 Handed = 34%
5 Handed = 40%
4 Handed = 49%
3 Handed = 61%
2 Handed = 78%

green_beer

JammyFker said:

Unless you were both 1 and 2 in stack size with everyone else a distance behind this could be a situation to make an ICM fold, but this is highly unlikely. Most times unless this was a very unique situation where 9th was gtd 1 million for example in the WSOP, it will be a call.

Here’s the thing about pocket jacks: Versus any two random cards they are very, very strong. In fact jacks are a 77% favorite to win against any two randomly selected cards.

If you are considering folding a hand as strong here as JJ (top3-4%) you would be to easily exploited long term. You will only be dealt a better hand about 1.4%. The other reason for this or even considering it maybe you were playing out of your comfort level. At most stakes this should be a very easy call.

For example Here’s a look at the equity of Pocket Jacks – the statistics on how often you’ll win the hand – depending on the number of players at the table:

10 Handed = 19%
9 Handed = 22%
8 Handed = 25%
7 Handed = 29%
6 Handed = 34%
5 Handed = 40%
4 Handed = 49%
3 Handed = 61%
2 Handed = 78%

it was an easy call. the thought about folding was fleeting, however in this situation folding woulda sadly been correct. I appreciate your opinion and nodded along while reading your post.

I have been thinking about spots like this for a while, I understand folding would be bad long term, but also think if your AA is constantly being cracked short term it will never translate into long term profit.

IMO lotsa players, including myself, over estimate starting hand values, i'm thinking we should put more emphasis on position plays instead of risking our tourney life on flips because the math says we are a heavy favourite.

sometimes i like to slaver. ha

It always amazes me how many ppl exit tourneys with AA on wet flops verses aggro reraises from multiple opponents.

Humphrey43

Yeah IMO its just an absolute stone cold snap call for 20bbs no matter what the situation is in an MTT open jamming 20bbs would most likely be a marginal hand or like AK maybe, most likely people wont do this with QQ plus because they want to get move value and don't want to scare you out the pot too.

Humphrey43

burden09 said:

i dont think wether u was calling or folding u wasnt going too win it anyways coz sky poker has the winners picked already so if u was going too win it would off held so coz it didnt u knew u wasnt going too win it so u shudda just ladddered for better prize money lol

Also this a quite a funny take

green_beer

burden09 said:

i dont think wether u was calling or folding u wasnt going too win it anyways coz sky poker has the winners picked already so if u was going too win it would off held so coz it didnt u knew u wasnt going too win it so u shudda just ladddered for better prize money lol

the first time i played live poker, a guy shoved, i called with AJ, he turned over A9, flopped the 9.......the 2nd time i played live poker, the exact same thing happened......both times eliminated.