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What are the odds?

MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
in Poker Chat
3 consecutive hands in the 6.00pm Freeroll tonight. I think I know why there is site maintenance later.....;)
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
russD123Small blind15.0015.003335.00
jeffreya17Big blind30.0045.001970.00
Your hole cards
  • 7
  • 7
MAXALLYRaise60.00105.001940.00
pegasuso10Call60.00165.002785.00
chickdog13Call60.00225.001790.00
telboy111Fold
russD123Fold
jeffreya17Call30.00255.001940.00
Flop
  • 3
  • 5
  • K
jeffreya17Check
MAXALLYCheck
pegasuso10Check
chickdog13Bet255.00510.001535.00
jeffreya17Fold
MAXALLYFold
pegasuso10Fold
chickdog13Muck
chickdog13Win255.001790.00
chickdog13Return255.000.002045.00
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Comments

  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    jeffreya17Small blind25.0025.001915.00
    MAXALLYBig blind50.0075.001890.00
    Your hole cards
    • 7
    • 7
    pegasuso10Fold
    chickdog13Raise175.00250.001870.00
    telboy111Fold
    russD123Fold
    jeffreya17All-in1915.002165.000.00
    MAXALLYFold
    chickdog13Call1765.003930.00105.00
    jeffreya17Show
    • A
    • A
    chickdog13Show
    • 2
    • 2
    Flop
    • 4
    • Q
    • 8
    Turn
    • 6
    River
    • 4
    jeffreya17WinTwo Pairs, Aces and 4s3930.003930.00
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    MAXALLYSmall blind25.0025.001865.00
    pegasuso10Big blind50.0075.002735.00
    Your hole cards
    • 7
    • 7
    chickdog13Fold
    telboy111Fold
    russD123Call50.00125.003285.00
    jeffreya17Fold
    MAXALLYCall25.00150.001840.00
    pegasuso10Check
    Flop
    • 9
    • 6
    • Q
    MAXALLYCheck
    pegasuso10Check
    russD123Check
    Turn
    • 3
    MAXALLYCheck
    pegasuso10Check
    russD123Check
    River
    • 7
    MAXALLYBet100.00250.001740.00
    pegasuso10Raise450.00700.002285.00
    russD123Fold
    MAXALLYCall350.001050.001390.00
    pegasuso10Show
    • 10
    • 8
    MAXALLYShow
    • 7
    • 7
    pegasuso10WinStraight to the 101050.003335.00
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  • green_beergreen_beer Member Posts: 1,936
    is the answer 10,648,000/1?

    220 x 220 x 220.

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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    green_beer said:

    is the answer 10,648,000/1?

    220 x 220 x 220.

    Haven't a clue what the answer is. That is why I asked the question for all the poker math boffins to come up with the solution. I like your attempt though, thank you.
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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,852
    The odds are a lot lower.

    It would be 10,648,000/1 to have 77 3 times in a row. But that is misleading. All we have is 3 similar starting hands. In reality, the 1st hand is any 2 cards. It is just the 2nd & 3rd that are similar to the 1st.

    So it is 220/1 x 220/1. 48,400/1. Still a big number. But much smaller.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    Essexphil said:

    The odds are a lot lower.

    It would be 10,648,000/1 to have 77 3 times in a row. But that is misleading. All we have is 3 similar starting hands. In reality, the 1st hand is any 2 cards. It is just the 2nd & 3rd that are similar to the 1st.

    So it is 220/1 x 220/1. 48,400/1. Still a big number. But much smaller.

    Even if the SAME two cards 3 times on the trot Phil?
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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,852
    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    The odds are a lot lower.

    It would be 10,648,000/1 to have 77 3 times in a row. But that is misleading. All we have is 3 similar starting hands. In reality, the 1st hand is any 2 cards. It is just the 2nd & 3rd that are similar to the 1st.

    So it is 220/1 x 220/1. 48,400/1. Still a big number. But much smaller.

    Even if the SAME two cards 3 times on the trot Phil?
    Makes the number bigger. But not as much as you might think. Because the 2 7s can (and do) come out in different orders.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,547
    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    The odds are a lot lower.

    It would be 10,648,000/1 to have 77 3 times in a row. But that is misleading. All we have is 3 similar starting hands. In reality, the 1st hand is any 2 cards. It is just the 2nd & 3rd that are similar to the 1st.

    So it is 220/1 x 220/1. 48,400/1. Still a big number. But much smaller.

    Even if the SAME two cards 3 times on the trot Phil?
    @MAXALLY

    Were the three hands consecutive, or were there other hands between them? Makes a monsta difference to the odds.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,547

    Strike that, the answer is in the OP, my bad.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    The odds are a lot lower.

    It would be 10,648,000/1 to have 77 3 times in a row. But that is misleading. All we have is 3 similar starting hands. In reality, the 1st hand is any 2 cards. It is just the 2nd & 3rd that are similar to the 1st.

    So it is 220/1 x 220/1. 48,400/1. Still a big number. But much smaller.

    Even if the SAME two cards 3 times on the trot Phil?
    Makes the number bigger. But not as much as you might think. Because the 2 7s can (and do) come out in different orders.
    1st two exact same order and the 3rd just other way round, but same two. And yes @Tikay10 they were consecutive. Look at highlighted player in each frame and chip stack values.

    I thought the odds would be higher than Phil's stab in the dark ;)

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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,852
    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    Essexphil said:

    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.

    Righto. So....roughly the same odds as Spurs winning the League then? ;)
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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,852
    edited February 2023
    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.

    Righto. So....roughly the same odds as Spurs winning the League then? ;)
    Bigger than that.

    You winning the Sunday Major :)
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.

    Righto. So....roughly the same odds as Spurs winning the League then? ;)
    Bigger than that.

    You winning the Sunday Major :)
    Which I have done since the last time Spurs won the League. YW. ;)
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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,852
    edited February 2023
    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.

    Righto. So....roughly the same odds as Spurs winning the League then? ;)
    Bigger than that.

    You winning the Sunday Major :)
    Which I have done since the last time Spurs won the League. YW. ;)
    Last time we won the League there wasn't just no internet poker. There was no internet :)

    And Stanley Matthews was playing for Stoke...
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,637
    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    A poker player believes that 7 of clubs followed by 7 of hearts is the same hand as 7 hearts followed by 7 of clubs for statistical purposes.

    A statistician finds that amusing.

    The odds of your superficially similar hands is about 250,000/1.

    Righto. So....roughly the same odds as Spurs winning the League then? ;)
    Bigger than that.

    You winning the Sunday Major :)
    Which I have done since the last time Spurs won the League. YW. ;)
    Last time we won the League there wasn't just no internet poker. There was no internet :)

    And Stanley Matthews was playing for Stoke...
    Yes.....you and Tikay must remember him from your school days together.

    Nice to have some banter back on the Forum Phil ;)
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