5.7m to win 28m, only needs 20% equity. BB shoving range is QQ+, AK and maybe some combos of A5s (debatable). UTG calling range is KK, AA and AKs/QQ sometimes (AKo is a clear fold) JJ likely to have between 17 and 22% equity being genrous.. that's before ICM.
5.7m to win 28m, only needs 20% equity. BB shoving range is QQ+, AK and maybe some combos of A5s (debatable). UTG calling range is KK, AA and AKs/QQ sometimes (AKo is a clear fold) JJ likely to have between 17 and 22% equity being genrous.. that's before ICM.
So yeah, a very good, disciplined fold.
I did not make myself sufficiently clear.
It is his 3-bet sizing that seems off to me. It needed to be either larger or smaller. As played, he has left himself with (without seeing cards) roughly 20% equity on a 5/1 shove or fold.
Any other 3-bet sizing gives him a better option than 5/1
I expect his thought process was call to 1 shove, fold to 2. Interesting spot to be in, though
He has asked a question and got a definative answer. He is either an even money shot or 2/13 dog if the other guy has a bigger pair than Jacks. Easy fold in that spot in a big comp.in my opinion
1 Chris Brewer United States $5,293,556 2 Artur Martirosian Russia $3,271,666 3 Martin Kabrhel Czech Republic $2,279,038 4 Alex Kulev Bulgaria $1,632,005 5 Chance Kornuth United States $1,202,318 6 Dan Smith United States $912,022
5.7m to win 28m, only needs 20% equity. BB shoving range is QQ+, AK and maybe some combos of A5s (debatable). UTG calling range is KK, AA and AKs/QQ sometimes (AKo is a clear fold) JJ likely to have between 17 and 22% equity being genrous.. that's before ICM.
So yeah, a very good, disciplined fold.
I did not make myself sufficiently clear.
It is his 3-bet sizing that seems off to me. It needed to be either larger or smaller. As played, he has left himself with (without seeing cards) roughly 20% equity on a 5/1 shove or fold.
Any other 3-bet sizing gives him a better option than 5/1
I expect his thought process was call to 1 shove, fold to 2. Interesting spot to be in, though
I don't think a bigger 3b makes sense because you don't want to pot commit yourself in a cooler situation. The idea with the 3b is to be able to get away vs 2 shoves which you can still do despite getting good pot odds (due to ICM + actual equity)
So, why not go smaller? Well probably because he doesn't want UTG to flat. He probably has 2 3b sizes in this spot. One - a smaller size with hands that don't mind so much if UTG flats or jams (AA-QQ, AKs for value - bluffs - KQs, KJs, A5s) and a bigger size with hands that want to pot commit or bluffs that can still fold (JJ-TT, sometimes QQ, AKo) KQo or AQo might be the bluffs that are folding.
Comments
He had 9.3 million chips. He 3-bets to 3.6 million from a 9.3 million stack & then folds??
So yeah, a very good, disciplined fold.
It is his 3-bet sizing that seems off to me. It needed to be either larger or smaller. As played, he has left himself with (without seeing cards) roughly 20% equity on a 5/1 shove or fold.
Any other 3-bet sizing gives him a better option than 5/1
I expect his thought process was call to 1 shove, fold to 2. Interesting spot to be in, though
2 Artur Martirosian Russia $3,271,666
3 Martin Kabrhel Czech Republic $2,279,038
4 Alex Kulev Bulgaria $1,632,005
5 Chance Kornuth United States $1,202,318
6 Dan Smith United States $912,022
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop/2023-wsop/event-40-250-000-super-high-roller/
Excellent thread, more like this please.
A7 v AK. K95r flop. Turn 8. River 6!
Hits a 1.92% runner-runner for the extra $2 million.
That must have hurt...
Mixture of a large amount of skill and winning the flips
So, why not go smaller? Well probably because he doesn't want UTG to flat. He probably has 2 3b sizes in this spot. One - a smaller size with hands that don't mind so much if UTG flats or jams (AA-QQ, AKs for value - bluffs - KQs, KJs, A5s) and a bigger size with hands that want to pot commit or bluffs that can still fold (JJ-TT, sometimes QQ, AKo) KQo or AQo might be the bluffs that are folding.
These hands benefit more from the fold equity.