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NBA Sports betting how close can we get?
Doubleme
Member Posts: 2,067
So me and my girlfriend get a lot of enjoyment and entertainment from sports betting on the NBA and watching to see if bets come in does so and so get enough assists for a bet (an assist is when a player has passed to a player who scores) rebounds (recovering the ball from a shot actually quite important in basketball) or scoring/ 3 pointers etc.
its kind of like Bingo crossing off certain parts of a bet and then when everything in that bet comes off its like when you get a line or a full house etc.
Previously it was like £5 or £10 bet on 1 or two bets a night. without much studying or looking into anything stats wise it didnt go well.
Since then we started making spread sheets and tracking statistics to analyse in theory which are or are not good bets. we dropped the stake down to a £1 or £2 on a bet and having up to ten bets. The challenge is to try and hit enough staked each week for the £5 free bet (£30) we will sometimes go a little over.
Now to be clear I dont think this will lead to us beating the bookies it cant be that easy, I expect to lose money doing this, but the entertainment to be worth it. The challenge isn't to make a profit though that would be nice if we did. The challenge is to get as close to break even as we can.
we ran hot recently but wont count that as that isnt statistically honest picking it when you did well/bad you have to have a starting base of zero when you start recording I will post the bets here and the results. I thought it might be interesting to see how we do.
I wont be counting the £5 free bets when staked these will likely be used for long shot bets.
the way we plan to do this is in theory if a bet appears statistically good according to our data we go with it if it doesnt we dont. Marginals slightly neg or pos are take or leave it. so it may be one week we stake quite a bit more then £30 and some weeks we may not make the £30.
if anyone decides to copy the bets please note we are not professional sports betters we do make mistakes from time to time with data entry into the spread sheet and math.
this is for fun only we expect to lose/spend money doing this. I plan to go from now until the end of the NBA season.
just thought this might be a fun one to share and see how it goes.
its kind of like Bingo crossing off certain parts of a bet and then when everything in that bet comes off its like when you get a line or a full house etc.
Previously it was like £5 or £10 bet on 1 or two bets a night. without much studying or looking into anything stats wise it didnt go well.
Since then we started making spread sheets and tracking statistics to analyse in theory which are or are not good bets. we dropped the stake down to a £1 or £2 on a bet and having up to ten bets. The challenge is to try and hit enough staked each week for the £5 free bet (£30) we will sometimes go a little over.
Now to be clear I dont think this will lead to us beating the bookies it cant be that easy, I expect to lose money doing this, but the entertainment to be worth it. The challenge isn't to make a profit though that would be nice if we did. The challenge is to get as close to break even as we can.
we ran hot recently but wont count that as that isnt statistically honest picking it when you did well/bad you have to have a starting base of zero when you start recording I will post the bets here and the results. I thought it might be interesting to see how we do.
I wont be counting the £5 free bets when staked these will likely be used for long shot bets.
the way we plan to do this is in theory if a bet appears statistically good according to our data we go with it if it doesnt we dont. Marginals slightly neg or pos are take or leave it. so it may be one week we stake quite a bit more then £30 and some weeks we may not make the £30.
if anyone decides to copy the bets please note we are not professional sports betters we do make mistakes from time to time with data entry into the spread sheet and math.
this is for fun only we expect to lose/spend money doing this. I plan to go from now until the end of the NBA season.
just thought this might be a fun one to share and see how it goes.
Comments
Potential Returns: £6.50
Fri
01:00
Giannis Antetokounmpo & Damian Lillard 30+ Pts Each @ 10/3
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1
Chicago Bulls v Milwaukee Bucks
in theory statistics justifies this if we assume that one scoring 30 points is statistically independent from the other scoring 30 points which is obviously not the case because they paly for the same team. but that is first bet down for tonight will edit this post to include later bets.
Stake £2.50
Potential Returns: £5.25
Fri
01:05
Mitchell Robinson & Rudy Gobert 10+ Rebs Each @ 11/10
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1
Stake £1
Potential Returns: £5.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Mitchell Robinson, Rudy Gobert & Evan Mobley 10+ Rebs Each @ 4/1
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1
Very Marginal just qualifies.
£1.00
RequestABet™
@ 3/1
Cash Out is unavailable on this bet.
Find out more
Potential Returns: £4.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Zach LaVine & DeMar DeRozan 20+ Pts Each @ 3/1
Stake £1
potential Returns: £101.00
Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren & LeBron James 2+ Blocks Each, Isaiah Joe, D'Angelo Russell & LeBron James 3+ Threes Made Each @ 100/1
stake £1
Potential Returns: £5.50
St.Curry, Giannis & S.Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Pts Each @ 9/2
Stake £2.50
Potential Returns: £5.00
The Bank Is Open! LeBron 15+ Pts, Giannis & S.Gilgeous-Alexander 20+ Pts Each, Tr.Young 8+ Assts, Giannis 8+ Rebs, St.Curry 4+ 3s @ 1/1
there was another £1 bet but made a mistake and missed a player off calculations which makes it a bad bet so counting that as a void bet.
bets for tonight get posted late because players out voided bets and had to go and find new bets at last minute.
only four bets tonight.
staked £2
Potential Returns: £6.50
K.Durant, N.Jokic & Zion 25+ Pts Each @ 9/4
Staked £3
Potential Returns: £8.63
P.Banchero 12+ Pts, F.Wagner 15+ Pts, K.Irving, B.Ingram, J.Tatum, Zion & T.Maxey 18+ Pts Each, K.Durant 24+ Pts, J.Tatum 5+ Rebs @ 15/8
Staked £2
Potential Returns: £4.50
R.Barrett 14+ Pts, D.Bane 16+ Pts, N.Jokic 21+ Pts, M.Robinson 8+ Rebounds @ 5/4
Staked £2
Potential Returns: £6.00
J.Brown & P.Banchero 12+ Pts Each, F.Wagner 15+ Pts, K.Irving, B.Ingram, J.Tatum, Zion & T.Maxey 18+ Pts Each, K.Durant 24+ Pts, J.Tatum 5+ Rebs @ 2/1
so we have staked £9 tonight hoping for better returns then last night.