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So how exactly do you play this? am I a moron for playing this way?
Doubleme
Member Posts: 2,071
in Poker Chat
busted sunday million sated in etc.
99 flop is 976 with two hearts against a very strong player. 67 are hearts and I have the 9 of hearts in my hand. This leaves
2h 3h 4h 5h 8h Th Jh Qh Kh Ah=10
then any 5 4 3 8 or T but counting non hearts as already counted the hearts so that is 15
some may say J is a scare card but not really because unless they have 8 T J does nothing and that is the nuts on the flop anyway.
so non heart J changes nothing.
any A K Q J or 2 which is not a heart is good so that gives 15
6 7 or 9 gives me quads or a full house so that=7
so out of 47 cards 25 are scare cards and 22 are okay. but it gets worse because any Q on the turn and now J and K are additional scare cards, whilst before T8 exactly has us beat with Q on the turn a K on the river leaves us losing to TJ K on the turn means Q on the river loses to TJ.
and J on the turn means we could now also lose to KT with a Q on the river or to QT with K on the river.
so 22 out of 47 cards are relatively safe but
for Q means we can take K and J so six of our save outs away
for K means we can take Q or J so six of our save outs away
for J means we can take K or Q so six of our save outs away.
so basically 22 out of 47 times which equates to 46.8% of the time we feel relatively save on the turn.
however of that 46.8% of the time
7 out of 22 of the time we have hit quads or a full house.
6 out of 22 we have hit a turn that does not add any danger any ace or 2.
9 out of 22 of the time we have hit a card that adds additional danger eg K Q or J
so breaking this down
of the times scare card on the turn we improve to full house or quads on the river 7 out of 46 times
hence
scare on turn and no improvement on the river (25/47)*(40/46)=46.25%
they scare on turn full house or quads on river. (25/47)*(6/46)=6.94%
now 7 of 47 times we lock for quads or full house so (7/47)=14.89%
now 6 out of 47 times we hit a non heart Ace or 2 on the turn, which gives the following noting ace or hearts which pairs board on river is non scare card.
no scare turn we dont improve and scare card on the river(6/47)*(24/46)=6.66%
no scare turn and no scare river (6/47)*(22/46)=6.11%
now 9 of 47 times we hit a non scare turn which adds more scare cards to river so J Q or K now I will assume now I will assume river pairing the board is good so if Q on the turn I will assume Q on river good or etc. which means KQ or J on the turn are effectively the same scenario scare scenario needs non pairing board heart or straight completing which means
no scare turn but scare on river (9/47)*(30/46)=12.49%
no scare turn no scare river (9/47)*(16/46)=6.66%
so 6.94%+14.89%+6.11%+6.66%=34.6% we have a safe run out
46.25%+6.66%+12.49%=65.4% we have a very scary board
Now I know strong players will know dangerous boards and put players to the test, @bigfatfish did just this to me in the sunday major last week in a similar spot putting me all in when he missed the flush by the river. I dont remember the exact hand but it was very very similar except I had set of 5s and the river run out was 4 to a straight and I called of feeling how often does he have the case 6 I think it was?
so I will ask @bigfatfish had you of had the straight draw and missed it but the flush hit by the river then you still shove?
So at 100 blinds deep what am I supposed to do here I mean flop in the millions was he called out of big donked flop I potted flop he called turn was heart that did not add any straight stuff he bet half pot I called river made no difference to anything no further straight cards or flush cards he shoves river I call and he turns up 105 of hearts. I bust.
Now I can hate myself for this call this week and love myself for the call last week when it was a bluff but that doesn't really seem like a good way of developing as a player.
now I tagged bigfatfish because he is a strong player I was in a very similiar spot against so thought it relevant to ask him if he would have bluffed all in on a missed straight draw when the flush completes.
I am aware that I could hit quads or a full house and they could hit straight flush though with my nine of hearts I am blocking quite a few of those scenarios and if I have a full house or quads and bust to straight flush its a cooler not much to think about. I am also aware he could of had 8T all along but if he has nuts its vs top set on that flop that feels like a cooler too. So whilst I am aware that these are possibilities I am not really counting these as I dont think this should affect my play.
I cant just commit to folding 65.4% of the time with top set, or bottom set against @bigfastfish I dont think I can just open shove 95 bigs on the flop, I certainly cant just flat call and folding is absurd so the pot sized raise on the flop seems correct.
Now If I shove the turn I am likely only getting called by a made hand or a really strong draw, I cant really 3 bet none all in on the turn as that is commiting stack so might as well just shove if I do that. I dont think I can just fold turn and so river call feels logically right but also like I am a fish and bad player for calling of river.
99 flop is 976 with two hearts against a very strong player. 67 are hearts and I have the 9 of hearts in my hand. This leaves
2h 3h 4h 5h 8h Th Jh Qh Kh Ah=10
then any 5 4 3 8 or T but counting non hearts as already counted the hearts so that is 15
some may say J is a scare card but not really because unless they have 8 T J does nothing and that is the nuts on the flop anyway.
so non heart J changes nothing.
any A K Q J or 2 which is not a heart is good so that gives 15
6 7 or 9 gives me quads or a full house so that=7
so out of 47 cards 25 are scare cards and 22 are okay. but it gets worse because any Q on the turn and now J and K are additional scare cards, whilst before T8 exactly has us beat with Q on the turn a K on the river leaves us losing to TJ K on the turn means Q on the river loses to TJ.
and J on the turn means we could now also lose to KT with a Q on the river or to QT with K on the river.
so 22 out of 47 cards are relatively safe but
for Q means we can take K and J so six of our save outs away
for K means we can take Q or J so six of our save outs away
for J means we can take K or Q so six of our save outs away.
so basically 22 out of 47 times which equates to 46.8% of the time we feel relatively save on the turn.
however of that 46.8% of the time
7 out of 22 of the time we have hit quads or a full house.
6 out of 22 we have hit a turn that does not add any danger any ace or 2.
9 out of 22 of the time we have hit a card that adds additional danger eg K Q or J
so breaking this down
of the times scare card on the turn we improve to full house or quads on the river 7 out of 46 times
hence
scare on turn and no improvement on the river (25/47)*(40/46)=46.25%
they scare on turn full house or quads on river. (25/47)*(6/46)=6.94%
now 7 of 47 times we lock for quads or full house so (7/47)=14.89%
now 6 out of 47 times we hit a non heart Ace or 2 on the turn, which gives the following noting ace or hearts which pairs board on river is non scare card.
no scare turn we dont improve and scare card on the river(6/47)*(24/46)=6.66%
no scare turn and no scare river (6/47)*(22/46)=6.11%
now 9 of 47 times we hit a non scare turn which adds more scare cards to river so J Q or K now I will assume now I will assume river pairing the board is good so if Q on the turn I will assume Q on river good or etc. which means KQ or J on the turn are effectively the same scenario scare scenario needs non pairing board heart or straight completing which means
no scare turn but scare on river (9/47)*(30/46)=12.49%
no scare turn no scare river (9/47)*(16/46)=6.66%
so 6.94%+14.89%+6.11%+6.66%=34.6% we have a safe run out
46.25%+6.66%+12.49%=65.4% we have a very scary board
Now I know strong players will know dangerous boards and put players to the test, @bigfatfish did just this to me in the sunday major last week in a similar spot putting me all in when he missed the flush by the river. I dont remember the exact hand but it was very very similar except I had set of 5s and the river run out was 4 to a straight and I called of feeling how often does he have the case 6 I think it was?
so I will ask @bigfatfish had you of had the straight draw and missed it but the flush hit by the river then you still shove?
So at 100 blinds deep what am I supposed to do here I mean flop in the millions was he called out of big donked flop I potted flop he called turn was heart that did not add any straight stuff he bet half pot I called river made no difference to anything no further straight cards or flush cards he shoves river I call and he turns up 105 of hearts. I bust.
Now I can hate myself for this call this week and love myself for the call last week when it was a bluff but that doesn't really seem like a good way of developing as a player.
now I tagged bigfatfish because he is a strong player I was in a very similiar spot against so thought it relevant to ask him if he would have bluffed all in on a missed straight draw when the flush completes.
I am aware that I could hit quads or a full house and they could hit straight flush though with my nine of hearts I am blocking quite a few of those scenarios and if I have a full house or quads and bust to straight flush its a cooler not much to think about. I am also aware he could of had 8T all along but if he has nuts its vs top set on that flop that feels like a cooler too. So whilst I am aware that these are possibilities I am not really counting these as I dont think this should affect my play.
I cant just commit to folding 65.4% of the time with top set, or bottom set against @bigfastfish I dont think I can just open shove 95 bigs on the flop, I certainly cant just flat call and folding is absurd so the pot sized raise on the flop seems correct.
Now If I shove the turn I am likely only getting called by a made hand or a really strong draw, I cant really 3 bet none all in on the turn as that is commiting stack so might as well just shove if I do that. I dont think I can just fold turn and so river call feels logically right but also like I am a fish and bad player for calling of river.
Comments
2) If i hit trips on the flop i would shove and let them worry about me
3) You can't work out all the above until AFTER the hand
4) Do not worry about other players if you have the goods.
In relation to 2) above, the only reason I might not shove is I don't want to scare off all those drawing hands-ideally, I want them to pay more than they should to see a card.
In relation to 3), need to spend more time concentrating on your hand, and less worrying about stuff
4) is key here. Obviously, you need to take other players' hands and range into account, but there comes a stage when you have to play knowing that all your chips are going in at some stage.
The most important thing is to recognise that sometimes you go out even when you play cards optimally.
The only question mark I have here is did you bet sufficiently preflop and on flop to deter 10 5hh to be in the hand, while accepting that sometimes he will be there anyway...
There were antees in place and the big blind has good odds to call so I dont hate the call with 105 suited its not dominated by much of my range and whilst an under dog out of position hits flops I miss so I think thats fair.
my brother showed me a solver showing its mostly a fold on the river. well text me screen shots via whats app how do you even do that? I suck with tech. it shows I should call 15% of the time there but my brother argues that villain wont have all the bluffs solvers have I disagree with that point a lot of players bluff heavily in this spot and it makes sense as to why.
Its very hard for my range to hit that flop and its very easy for villains range to have hit strong.
The generic take away is maybe I should not have put the big raise in on the flop. I know I am likely facing a tough decision by the river so why build the pot?
if I flat call pot is now 13/14ish bb he can half pot or pot turn betting twice pot wouldn't be terrible in this spot I guess on the turn but then your capping my range to the very strongest of hands I can have and whilst not a lot I do have bigger flushes here in my range here plus villain likely wants to get paid if they have it.
so turn comes and he bets pot say 14bb. I call pot is now 42 bb. I started the hand with 110bb betting 90ish into 42 again rare but then that gives me more chance to get away.
its a tough spot for sure and regardless of what the right decision is I cant hate myself for getting it wrong if I did, its one thing If I call of with J high because for some reason I put villain on a bluff or call with off weak top pair but this I feel was a genuine tough spot.
I just think if more then half the run outs are going to involve me been put in a lot of pressure in a tough spot with a hand that shouldnt just be open folding and is meant to be strong pot control makes sense rather then bloating the pot and I think looking back on this that was my fundamental mistake.
I dont know if people agree or disagree with that?
Your question about pushing small equity advantages is a good one. It's been a good few years since I studied tournament strat but IIRC, the journey was still out on early game play. If you are deep and have a skill edge on the field, many pros used to recommend playing conservatively in the early stages. Other cash game players would work on the basis of chipEV, on the assumption that ICM isn't a big deal in the first few levels and the have future game benefits from an early double up in a 55/45 spot. Somewhere in the middle is probably right, dependent upon the spot and tournament structure.
PS: a lot of people are still making mistakes with preflop and postflop sizing. Solvers have proved that the old "must charge the draws" by betting big and often can often be false postflop.
What I do know is usually online once you go 50+ for £ $ euro etc you generally have a lot of pros in the field, and pokerstars is one of the toughest sites out there for standard. So on those premises I would probably assume I do not have an edge on the field.
That been said the big dream for a lot of people in online poker has been win the sunday millions it always been probably the most well known online tourney which means it will attract its fair share of casuals or ambitious dreamers etc so maybe I do have an egde on the field.
I would guess probably not, not sure though. from my time in heads up hypers passing up small plus ev spots enough basically erodes your edge, you can pass up a 55 45 spot in your favour but then if you win 55%+ of the time, your doing well for that structure, and passing up those spots and erodes your edge.
So dont get me wrong I am not desperate to get it in on a 51 49 if I think I have an edge but I am not one to edge pass often. Habits from spin and goes and heads up hypers,
.
I just think if your going to be in a real tough spot over 60% of the time facing large bets but you got top set you probably want to pot control.
Agree that you can't pass up any 55/45 spots on HU hypers. Stack depth, skill edge and tournament structure are important.
You should be happy to get it in here on the flop or build the pot with such high equity. If the turn and river change things then we can adjust accordingly, which is easier in position.
Why because they dont want to get it in here, they have massive bluff equity on the turn and river on the vast majority of run outs.
I dont have a lot of experience of deep stack play I have ran this by a high stakes deep stack cash game player and there idea was they dont mind the raise by me on the flop but they think a flat call would usually be the better option and that I was right to call the turn but should fold the river.
I did not have access to a solver before I will likely in the very near future so will try and see how this plays out on different run outs. So I may be getting stuff wrong here, but I would be curious how the solver advises one to play the hand down if villain bets out turn and shoves river on a non flush board that brings 5 8 or T here? because I know of 3 hearts for sure that is 76 of hearts on the flop and nine of hearts in my hand that leaves 10 hearts potentially in the deck, then we have for 5 8 or 10 , 3 non hearts so 9 more that leaves 19 cards in the deck that screw me twice.
further more lets say the turn is 2 of spades and the river is say J of diamonds which should change nothing for where I am on the flop if villain bets big turn and and shoves river I am obviously not folding but do I feel great about calling of, t8 and 85 are def in villains range.
but say turn and river are 2 spades and J river and I have AA and villain puts me all in by river do I feel great? well villain can have pretty much every combo of two pair nearly every combo of set not sure about 99 or JJ I think your meant to 3 bet that but a lot of weak and a lot of decent players dont 3 bet with these for various reasons, so what do I do with AA vs this?
the basic jist is that I am seeing is that when I raise the flop villain can pretty much put me all in with near 100% of their range and its very hard for me to call.
if I flat there is now 16 bb in the flop with me having 103 blinds behind if he bets 16 blinds into the turn and I call pot is now 48 blinds and I have 87 blinds behind. I mean he can shove 87 blinds into 48 I guess but that makes the whole bluff attack much riskier.
I think I can build a similiar spot where the play might be different eg lets say I have KK with the K of hearts and the flop comes Ks 10h 4h well this is a wet board to like villain can have a lot of flush draws and JQ but its harder for villain to have a lot of straight draws now eg AJ AQ etc, if say we have A Q J or 9 by river and villain wants to put us all in they have a lot less combos that complete maybe a big raise on flop against a donk makes sense here, also I have the AQ AJ QJ etc a lot so I can be the one firing of all the bluffs.
That would be my experience playing online, gl to you if its not yours.....
Okay well any coach I would pay for or listen to if they are going to say stuff I dont get would need to show strong results.
So if your line is give up its rigged, meh I make money playing in my spare time so no reason to quit whilst making money so not listening.
If it the later fine go do it prove your case if your right you can get one of the best if not the best results for online poker and prove everyone wrong.
so Go make 100k this year online which should be really easy to do if your right, otherwise I cant take you serious when you come out with that sort of thing.
so your comment is utterly useless to me so thankyou for that.
We know this is uesless info for all concerned that have commented, that is why you have to post this hand and ask what went wrong.... you know what went wrong, but you are just refusing to accept it...
Completely adjust your game to what is correct play and combat it. If it looks like a set up, it nearly always will be.... check call, lose the minimum, you could fold the river, or it might even be cheap enough to call. If its a flop of K 9 2 rainbow, you could probably play it correctly, 9 7h 6h, your already beat if he calls a bet.....
Live you are thinking how can i extract the maximum, online you should be thinking completely differently....
Ignore it, fine.... dissect it, fine.... the answer is far easier than essays on correct poker play, just adjust to what it tells you time and time again.
I would say he just doesnt have a clue about what a good hi lo hand is, plays awfully and hits alot of cards. He will do much, much better online because of this....
He made this play, after a helluver lot of patience, i waited for the mistake and got it finally. The big problem with this, was i was hoping he had a much,much better hand. Once i saw what i was up against (basically nothing at hi lo, which he thinks is big), it was so bad that i knew i couldnt win that game.
Seen it a million times. It was such a huge error, he was on auto win from there on in.
This is the difference online... you just know the hands and what they mean... that win for me meant curtains, i said out aloud 'ffs' when i saw his holding... altho it gave me a 2480 - 520 lead... obviously not a thing that happens in a live situation.
Either you see it, or you dont... even tho its staring you in the face and you are reminded again and again and again....
@TheWaddy
It's time you took a break, at least for the next month.
You’ve done nothing but bleat & whinge, cast aspersions on the online poker industry generally, & specifically Sky Poker. Daily accusations of moody Sky Poker software, but you’ve not once provided a single shred of credible evidence. Find some evidence, then make the accusation. If you repeat these allegations often enough, there will always be some who believe them, so you are damaging the Business with your toxic & untrue comments. You are also trolling non-stop, & trying to encourage others to join with you.
“enhanced hands”, “Promo Decks”, Weekend Decks”, “Friday decks”, “Special Promo decks” "set up hands" & so on. These are all complete & total figments of your imagination. None of them exist. You just make all this stuff up & then come on to the Forum & tables of Sky Poker & state them as facts. And you think it’s fine to use the Sky Poker's own platform to make these completely baseless accusations.
No other site would allow this or be even a fraction as reasonable & patient as we’ve been, but you continue with all this fiction.
It’s even worse at the tables, you whine on about pre-determined outcomes on Sky Poker every game, every day. Every game, every day & we are not exaggerating. And again, you do it on Sky Poker’s platform. It's just relentless one-way traffic & it's not reasonable or acceptable.
So it's time for you to take a 1 month break from the chat functions both on the Community & at the Tables. If & when you decide to return, "balance your ranges" better & quit with the false allegations.
Your chat rights on the Community & at the Tables will be restored on February 24th.
I might make a separate thread about that and post in strategy but not sure if that gets much traction.
Many other sports, lets take football, some players play angry (Roy Keane, Graeme Souness), others play happy-go-lucky... its part of what makes them successful. Thats their personailty, thats who they are... they are not banned from football.
Id rather have the chat taken away than fall foul to what you think is acceptable.
It is a fact that sites have made statements such as 'it would be impossible for opponents to see other players cards'.... it is a fact that GG poker have now admitted this has been a problem. It is a fact that sites have said 'its impossible to rig a card deck' directly to me. but it is a fact that Phil Galfond has owned a poker site and said in an interview that it would be. I could give you many, many, more examples.
Now whilst i appreciate that you feel that i have gone beyond acceptable levels in talking about things like this, i do feel the sites have to take responsibilty in why players may develop mistrust, when they have knowingly made statements that are untrue.
If somebody tells lies to you in life, you are likely to no longer trust that person. No-one would blame you for that whatsoever. Here they do.
Id rather play, take the hits and not be able to comment. This would be best all round i feel. As i say, its like asking Hellmuth to play poker and not comment, in the moment it is unlikely to happen.
I have a reason to comment every game, every day, without exaggeration.... take from that what you will!
I will probably be punished for that, but hey im just quoting......
It was a good note to end on.....
Table chat was turned off earlier today, presumably by CC at Waddy's request, & I've now removed his Community chat rights.
All a bit sad really, it did not have to come to this, but a line had to be drawn eventually.