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TALKING TRADING PART 2 THE PLAN FOR IT ALL.
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,686
When I decided to really try trading about 3 weeks ago rather than just play at it, I stuck £100 on a well known exchange with the intention of making 20 x £5 trades taking small 15 - 25 % profits whilst limiting both liability and exposure to a minimum. Now having just had one break even session on Monday followed by a losing session on Tuesday my account still shows a profit of 20% which shows me that, a, the strategies I employ work and, b, thinking that you have it cracked is a quick way to losses and a diminishing trading balance.
I have a staking plan which is as follows.
When the balance reaches £180 the trades will rise to £6, when it reaches £280 trades will be £7 each, £400 will be £8 and so on. Scaling up works because what succeeds at £5 succeeds at £10 or £20
This should ensure that there is always a healthy reserve for those losing streaks and that I'm never increasing entry amounts to chase losses.
Ok so at what point do I start taking winnings out for those little luxuries? When and how much. Well I would like to build the balance to £3,000 at which point trades would be at £25. From here on in after each trading period although what that will be I don't yet know but probably each month. I will take 40% of that months profit and leave the rest to build the balance. I expect that to be at least 3 years away if not longer, but it's not really relevant right now.
The one thing I don't have is a time scale and that's the way I like it, yes I would like to have a bank of £200 in time for the 24/25 season but it's no biggie if I don't.
The other beauty of this is there's no chance of getting the account restricted or gubbed. The exchange get their commission from the winning trades so they don't care who is successful or who loses.
What other sports are available I hear you cry. Well actually Tennis probably has more money traded than any other sport. Many traders like it because of the volatility. However, more traders go broke trading tennis than ever do trading football. Horses for courses I suppose and yes there are plenty of opportunities to trade the racing markets both equine and canine.
In reality, if a kid in Indonesia throws a rock at a tree there's probably 2 traders somewhere making a market.
So why football. Well firstly I understand the game, I have watched probably in excess of 5,000 matches and as anybody with that amount of experience watching, the little nuances and dynamics stand out along with the knowledge of how they affect the game and ultimately the markets.
In conclusion, I got sick of all the BS surrounding football trading. All the "No Loss" strategies, all the rehashed strategies repackaged and presented as the new great thing. Yes I will admit that XG prediction software will be a game changer for serious traders staking £1,000s at a time, but aiming it at recreational traders is like giving a day trader a desk at Citibank and telling him to make money. So I decided to use simple strategies, small stakes and see just where a little understanding can take me.
What's the Holy Grail ? A 90% strike rate, apparently, although many "successful" you tube traders who claim that number are trying to sell you a course or a strategy . If I can bounce along at between 75 and 80% I will be one happy chappy.
Anyhow I just thought I'd provide a little background to the TALKING TRADING thread I started and apologies for not putting this in that thread as a preamble.
Any questions, hints, tips or advice feel free to post them. It's a community after all.
I have a staking plan which is as follows.
When the balance reaches £180 the trades will rise to £6, when it reaches £280 trades will be £7 each, £400 will be £8 and so on. Scaling up works because what succeeds at £5 succeeds at £10 or £20
This should ensure that there is always a healthy reserve for those losing streaks and that I'm never increasing entry amounts to chase losses.
Ok so at what point do I start taking winnings out for those little luxuries? When and how much. Well I would like to build the balance to £3,000 at which point trades would be at £25. From here on in after each trading period although what that will be I don't yet know but probably each month. I will take 40% of that months profit and leave the rest to build the balance. I expect that to be at least 3 years away if not longer, but it's not really relevant right now.
The one thing I don't have is a time scale and that's the way I like it, yes I would like to have a bank of £200 in time for the 24/25 season but it's no biggie if I don't.
The other beauty of this is there's no chance of getting the account restricted or gubbed. The exchange get their commission from the winning trades so they don't care who is successful or who loses.
What other sports are available I hear you cry. Well actually Tennis probably has more money traded than any other sport. Many traders like it because of the volatility. However, more traders go broke trading tennis than ever do trading football. Horses for courses I suppose and yes there are plenty of opportunities to trade the racing markets both equine and canine.
In reality, if a kid in Indonesia throws a rock at a tree there's probably 2 traders somewhere making a market.
So why football. Well firstly I understand the game, I have watched probably in excess of 5,000 matches and as anybody with that amount of experience watching, the little nuances and dynamics stand out along with the knowledge of how they affect the game and ultimately the markets.
In conclusion, I got sick of all the BS surrounding football trading. All the "No Loss" strategies, all the rehashed strategies repackaged and presented as the new great thing. Yes I will admit that XG prediction software will be a game changer for serious traders staking £1,000s at a time, but aiming it at recreational traders is like giving a day trader a desk at Citibank and telling him to make money. So I decided to use simple strategies, small stakes and see just where a little understanding can take me.
What's the Holy Grail ? A 90% strike rate, apparently, although many "successful" you tube traders who claim that number are trying to sell you a course or a strategy . If I can bounce along at between 75 and 80% I will be one happy chappy.
Anyhow I just thought I'd provide a little background to the TALKING TRADING thread I started and apologies for not putting this in that thread as a preamble.
Any questions, hints, tips or advice feel free to post them. It's a community after all.
Comments
The FAV has to be quite strong in the betting at the start, ideally you want the FAV to get a quick break in the 2nd set and cash out for a profit.
It's not a set and forget, and you are wanting the first set to be quite tight, so you should be watching it or have the game stats to hand.
It's an easy trade to do and for me it's been profitable.
Thanks for that Rab. So I'm guessing a pre match odds on fav, with the 1st set going at 6 - 4 to the underdog and then trading out when the fav goes a break up in the 2nd set would be the ideal scenario here.
What would be the typical liability for a trade such as this and is this a lay the leader strategy that works through the slams and down into the challenger level matches or are we sticking to the main tour.
I've got some of Ben's Football PDF's and they are not bad although he does tend to skew the results of his demos in his videos. Also some of his "live" trade examples are not really indicative of low level trading.
He often uses £100 and £200 stakes and then portrays £20 - £70 profits as the norm whereas most people trading those sort of figures have a £10,000 - £20,000 bankroll which is not unusual but as the videos are aimed at newbies its a bit unrealistic.
The percentages are the same that is true but I feel that these figures encourage people to scale up without either the bank or the skill set to be profitable.
James at Trading The Market TTM has a much better approach, only ever using typical £10 trades and unlike Ben at Sports Trading Life all TTM's resources, software and courses are entirely free. Also he talks proper Yorkshire like.
There are a few others that put out content. Caan Berry mainly uses the exchanges to find where sports books are giving up value and unfortunately he takes this approach into trading. He has though had more boom and bust than is healthy through combining trading and betting.
Peter at Bet Angel does some watchable stuff and it's quite similar to Bens at STL. He also has some automated sports trading software which looks cool. He avoids jargon and has an easy way of delivering his message.
Finally there is Betfair Trading Community, they put out all the usual stuff but it's all a pitch to get you to sign up for courses etc. It's difficult to tell whether they are successful traders or simply good salesmen.
Other people who put out good stuff include Nick Smith, Kie Millet and a channel called First Hand Finances who cover sports trading as part of their bigger remit.
Part of the problem a newbie has is sorting out the channels who make money through actually trading and those who make money through "teaching you how to trade".
Oh I tried some dummy runs trading tennis today. I'll be sticking with the football for the time being I think. Tennis for me, is too boring to watch and every time I got distracted I lost a trade.
The trouble is you are trying to beat machine learnt big data based algorithms etc etc who are far better than you and I at figuring out any small edges in just about any liquid event. They only need to snipe 1 or 2 ticks here and there because there is very little tiny investment as it's all done by a, perfectly legal and authorised, bot.
If anyone who comes up with a system and says it works proceed cautiously. Anybody with a working system is doing one thing and that's making money. They are absolutely and utterly not telling everyone else how to do it and throwing away their path to riches.
However, if you are convinced you are onto something then i suggest looking into Betangel and automating your system so you don't actually have to sit there all day.
I also enjoy the research into finding suitable matches to trade
The bot can react and adjust very quickly to fluctuations in the markets that is true. However it cannot preempt such movements by what it's seeing on screen.
Also the markets I trade are exclusively in football where the fast tick movement of racing and greyhounds isn't rally a problem. I'll leave scalping 20p a time to those who enjoy that sort of thing.
All I am doing here is seeing how a small starting bank of £100 can be grown with just a few strategies. So far I'm happy with the progress.
The next milestone will be when the bank reaches £180 and the trades will increase to £6, £3 and £1.50 from the current £5, £2.50, £1.25
In the meantime I'm just having fun.