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Prisoners early release predictions
Starting in the next day or two, certain categories of prisoners will be released after serving 40% of their sentence. Ordinarily, its 50%. This has to be done as there are now more prisoners than prison cells available.
Some of those released will re-offend immediately. A % of ALL prisoners released re-offend, so that's no surprise.
What happens then is fun.
The Media report these re-offenders as being due to the early release programme, & they blame the new Labour Government.
The Labour Government blame the Tories for allowing the problem to arise, due, mainly, to not building enough prisons whilst in power.
The Tories blame the Labour Government. That's the Government that's been in power just a few months.
And so it goes on.
It's gets really interesting though when, amongst those who re-offend, there are Asians &/or Muslims. We all know who will highlight those crimes, both in the Media (well hello Daily Mail) & on here.
Racism is such a shameful trait.
Comments
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-and-the-law/policing/number-of-arrests/latest/#by-ethnicity-over-time
I am not taking a position currently as I do not know what the numbers are but this is highly relevant.
Eg if the percentage of those released and those released that re offend happens to be very high for asians and muslims etc then that would support the daily mail position. #
If however the numbers are in perfect proportion to their representation of the population or lower then that position holds no weight in this argument.
its about numbers we need to follow the numbers
When this country has mass homeless they will resort to camps and of course we know which group they will round up first....
You. You know this. Which is why you infest this forum. Because your views will be banned pretty much everywhere else.
There are simple reasons why certain races are more likely to offend in the UK. Which, contrary to your beliefs have little to do with race.
The starting point is always money and family. It has always been the case that 90% of the Prison population comes from the poorest 10% of the population. Whole variety of reasons-from lack of family role models, poor education, no jobs, high crime rate where live etc. So, typically, inner city dwellers. Far more of which will be Black compared to the rest of the Country than any other race.
I first studied this in detail 40 years ago. And nothing has changed. The only possible conclusions are that people tend to be bad because they are poor. Or poor because they are bad. And all the data points overwhelmingly to the former.
This does not mean that all people born poor will be Criminals. Just that a far larger minority go down that path.
It is highly misleading to merely compare "White" with "Black". Try comparing "White and Black from deprived backgrounds" or "White and Black from affluent suburbs"-there is little or no difference.
Then there are massive differences between outcomes from Arrest to Conviction and Conviction to Custodial Sentence. Between Middle Class and Poor. Plenty of Studies try to portray this as conscious or unconscious race bias from overwhelmingly White Police, Magistrates and Judges. But it is more complex than that. The middle class offender has a job offer before sentencing via a family connection, or the Career that persuades Police or a Judge to give a 2nd chance via a Caution or Non-Custodial sentence. Whereas the Poor person does not. Because money gives access to Legal Advice and strategies to lessen the risk of imprisonment.
There are lots of articles freely available for those genuinely interested. Here are a couple:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-report-of-the-commission-on-race-and-ethnic-disparities-supporting-research/understanding-ethnic-disparities-in-involvement-in-crime-a-limited-scope-rapid-evidence-review-by-professor-clifford-stott-et-al
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/world/europe/uk-prosecutions-racial-disparity.html
There are those that can literally get away with anything, and people spin stuff for their own narrative. If the numbers came out as very high for Islamic/Asian the so called woke left would argue it shows they are persercuted, whilst the so called far right would argue that this vindicates their whole position.
Conversely if the numbers were were very low The so called woke Left would argue that this proofs their point whilst the daily mail crowd would argue it shows the police never prosercute that group and two tier policing system.
I think when alleging that immigrants are bad etc its more their background that may or may not influence there behaviour not their ethinicity.
I dont think much good will come of attributing crimminal traits to genetic ethnicity, and never meant to imply that. I did not wake up long ago.
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The average rate of offending for Asian people is lower than for White people. But you tend to find some people only want to point at any race that suits their narrative.
The reason is exactly as I said. Most immigrant populations start off disadvantaged. And, consequently, are more likely to commit crime. That could be said for lots of Races-for example, Jewish, Irish etc. But, once the group competes on an equal footing, and people move to a wide spread of areas, Crime goes down. Just as true for the Asian community.
And @goldon I have heard lots of people say exactly what you say about Prison. And they all have the same thing in common. They have never been in one.
Grim. Unimaginably grim.
So the only way, having not been in prison to know what goes on in there, is to listen to people that have.
The six pack came from fat work mate who we all thought was on sick leave came back looking like
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My Posts are.........
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13830071/Germany-EU-border-controls-Islamic-extremism.html