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Statistically improbable?

gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
edited October 31 in Brags, Beats and Variance
I’ll start by saying: This isn’t a moan, by any means.
I regularly enter the £3 all-in sats for the sheriff and the Sunday main.
Has anyone else got a worse record than this, for a zero skill game; 148 entries, 3 wins?
Currently on a 75 game losing streak 🫨🫨

Would love to hear if anyone can beat this 😎😎
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183

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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,636

    'Moaned it in' B)

    UKOPS 03 £15k B/Hunter Semi All-in (9.35pm)

    gogogadget 21000 1 UKOPS 03 £15k Bounty Hunter Semi
    __IRE__ 0 2 £1.20
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
    MAXALLY said:


    'Moaned it in' B)

    UKOPS 03 £15k B/Hunter Semi All-in (9.35pm)

    gogogadget 21000 1 UKOPS 03 £15k Bounty Hunter Semi
    __IRE__ 0 2 £1.20

    I wasn’t even watching it lols!
    Anyway, my post is specifically about the £3 entry games, I do fair far better in the lower entry all-ins funnily enough.

    Anyway, out of that sat I qualified for in about 3 hands ^^^^
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
    edited November 1
    There is one player who plays a lot of these £3 ones, approaching 2000, and his worst streak is 58.
    Not fair to post his name and stats without permission though.
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  • mumsiemumsie Member Posts: 8,104
    gogogadget said:

    There is one player who plays a lot of these, approaching 2000, and his worst streak is 58.
    Not fair to post his name and stats without permission though.

    Its a male then, that narrows it down a bit, is the first letter of their name in the lower or upper half of the alphabet?
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
    mumsie said:

    gogogadget said:

    There is one player who plays a lot of these, approaching 2000, and his worst streak is 58.
    Not fair to post his name and stats without permission though.

    Its a male then, that narrows it down a bit, is the first letter of their name in the lower or upper half of the alphabet?
    Has a male avatar, that may be a red herring though?
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 170,984
    gogogadget said:

    mumsie said:

    gogogadget said:

    There is one player who plays a lot of these, approaching 2000, and his worst streak is 58.
    Not fair to post his name and stats without permission though.

    Its a male then, that narrows it down a bit, is the first letter of their name in the lower or upper half of the alphabet?
    Has a male avatar, that may be a red herring though?

    @gogogadget

    So could be a fish?

    I like this guessing game.

    Another clue please.

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  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,343
    I know a FISH who plays loads of the All-ins ...... probably plays more than 58 a night

    .... and he defo WINS more than the % to justify it :)

    WELL DONE Leo B)
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,636
    Ha.

    I play too many of these TBH. However, I always play them with the intention of playing the target MTT.

    What you could do is what two or three of the REGS are doing every night. Reg for the target MTT......play all the all in sats.......the software then uses new AI technology to allow you win at least 1/2 all ins. You then dereg the target MTT, whinge about them not running, but take the cash regardless. Winner winner B)

    Joking apart.....while you are going through a 'bad run', limit yourself to only 1 or 2 of these until the tide turns.
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
    edited November 1
    Tikay10 said:

    gogogadget said:

    mumsie said:

    gogogadget said:

    There is one player who plays a lot of these, approaching 2000, and his worst streak is 58.
    Not fair to post his name and stats without permission though.

    Its a male then, that narrows it down a bit, is the first letter of their name in the lower or upper half of the alphabet?
    Has a male avatar, that may be a red herring though?

    @gogogadget

    So could be a fish?

    I like this guessing game.

    Another clue please.

    Fish by name but not by nature…
    I’ve said too much already, not like me

    Anyway, can anyone beat this run?
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  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 2,183
    so for the £3 games of these you have a difference to the lower stake ones. For starters most of the lower stake games aim to award a seat to 1 in 20. where as the £3 ones to the sunday major aim to award a seat to 1 in 40.

    Now I use those terms because that is the min number the site needs to fully collect the rake and meet the gaurantea sometimes the games have more then 20 at the lower stakes and more then 40 at the £3 ones to the major.
    Sometimes this goes the other way and games have less occasionly to the extent that its actually profitible in terms of expected value for each player in these.

    now then if your playing the sats to the sheriff its 1 in 20 if the major 1 in 40 assuming it meets exactly the target.

    So I will go with these numbers for 1 in 20 we have
    (19/20)^75= approx 2.13%
    however if 40 we have (39/40)^75=approx 14.97%

    so yes it appears you have been unlucky, but nothing that stands out as anything incredible. Note if you mix a combination of sherif sats and major sats you will be somewhere between these two figures depending on in which proportions.

    Further note the numbers of entrants will vary and this will affect the odds.
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  • gogogadgetgogogadget Member Posts: 183
    @Doubleme ; most are for the sheriff where there are usually between 15 - 18 I would say.
    Are the maths for that as simple as I would expect to win between 1 in 15 - 18 times?
    Genuinely interested in the maths behind this, 1996 since I did my statistics GCSE…
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  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 2,183
    gogogadget said:

    @Doubleme ; most are for the sheriff where there are usually between 15 - 18 I would say.
    Are the maths for that as simple as I would expect to win between 1 in 15 - 18 times?
    Genuinely interested in the maths behind this, 1996 since I did my statistics GCSE…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0tr8Iw0tjA

    this guy was brilliant for teaching and explaining the A level maths stuff and many students still refer back to him today. This stuff was on As level statistics but was the more basic stuff there so probably would have been closer to GCSE higher level statistics, I never saw statistics on my Math GCSE.

    if you look at roughly 4 minutes in the maths of this stuff is shown. you will notice that xCx will always equal one. by x I mean any integer number if the number before the C is the same as the number after the C since multiplying any number by 1 just returns your original number we can eliminate the C stuff from the equation. Also note any number to the power zero also equals one. so again the last bit of the equation can be eliminated.

    hence in the example I gave you would have 0.95 or (19/20) in the brackets in the example they give in this video your just left with (0.9)^20.

    if your saying between 15 and 18 then I will just say 17 to keep it simple your math would then be the odds of not winning which would be 16 out of 17 so would then be (16/17)^75= approx 1.06%

    if you watch all this guys videos on binomial distribution it should be easy enough to follow through and understand the maths yourself.


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