variance?

sim75

hi hope you all can help me here im really struggling at the mo i cant win a scooby snack not alone a tourny so far have managed to lose my £100 br playing the 5% so u can see how bad this run has gone i put the cash on last night for the 8pm tourny i lasted 3 hands twice had full house only to be busted by 4 of a kind thought that was unreal to be busted twice like that when i thought i was so ahead ask boonicon he was the player that killed me big style so then i thought i would pay and enter the 8pm tourny tonight only to get busted on the nut flush with a killer full house on the river then when having 900 chips left getting k 10 i raise to 200 trying to steal the blinds get 2 callers flop comes k 10 9 i move all in get two instant calls one shows a set of 9s other guy shows j q how can i play against this people call it variance but how does it get worked out ???????
on shark scope im showing 71 on tornys but only 54 on sit and goes  such a massive differance is that normall?
please help me get over this as ive invested so much in skys bank i wouldnt mind taking some back lol

agboy

hello mate,

i find that my sharkscope rating is also higher for mtts than sngs, but when i find variance is being unkind, i tend to play some dyms just to ride out the bad run.  this might not work for everyone but it works for me! might be worth giving it a go.  good luck!

sim75

i only play dym sit and goes thats how bad my run has been

BlackFish3

Drop down the stakes sim!!! the money will hurt a lot less.

beaneh

Variance is unimaginable. Just imagine getting kicked in the nuts constantly, that's bad variance.  Occasionally not getting kicked in the nuts is running good!!!

Remember if you are 80% to win preflop, and you win, you have run good. Lose with 20% and you are not surprised but your also technically running bad because you would expect 20% of the pot not zero.

Using a 5% bankroll management strategy has an inherent possibility of you going bust. That is what people would have been taking into account when they gave this basic figure.

elsadog

Sky is fantasy poker for some. Any donk that calls me with junk draws the winning hand where I'm concerned. I've had weeks of it and it's not much fun, so either ride it out or go somewhere else or stop for a while. I lost with AKs vs A2os, QQ vs 94os and TT vs 22 twice, all in one mtt tonight. That's about the norm at the moment on here.

There are a lot of poor players who think they are God's gift to poker on Sky. The problem is they keep hitting those one and two outers, game after game after game. Not too damaging in a cash game but in a tournament it's deadly.

sim75

i play to the 5% rule so i should be playing the correct levels

sim75

this is what i mean on a bh just few secs ago

erry1nick	Small blind		15.00	15.00	1850.00
Bza3swords	Big blind		30.00	45.00	4585.00
	Your hole cards	A A
magralad	Raise		180.00	225.00	1745.00
sim75	Raise		780.00	1005.00	3900.00
dandare67	Fold
gingerlama	Fold
ferry1nick	Fold
Bza3swords	Fold
magralad	All-in		1745.00	2750.00	0.00
sim75	Call		1145.00	3895.00	2755.00
magralad	Show	A 10
sim75	Show	A A
Flop
		J K Q
Turn
		6
River
		6
magralad	Win	Straight to the Ace	3895.00		3895.00

beaneh

In Response to Re: variance?:

i play to the 5% rule so i should be playing the correct levels
Posted by sim75

what is the 5% rule? Why is it applicable to you in the games you play?

bigflop1

you would never go bust if you only put 5% of your roll on!!

even if you were down to £1.. 5% = 5p

so on and so on

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: variance?:

Sky is fantasy poker for some. Any donk that calls me with junk draws the winning hand where I'm concerned. I've had weeks of it and it's not much fun, so either ride it out or go somewhere else or stop for a while. I lost with AKs vs A2os, QQ vs 94os and TT vs 22 twice, all in one mtt tonight. That's about the norm at the moment on here. There are a lot of poor players who think they are God's gift to poker on Sky. The problem is they keep hitting those one and two outers, game after game after game. Not too damaging in a cash game but in a tournament it's deadly.
Posted by elsadog

and also ran really deep in the freeroll tonight...

beaneh

In Response to Re: variance?:

you would never go bust if you only put 5% of your roll on!! even if you were down to £1.. 5% = 5p so on and so on
Posted by daz231023

So long as there were limits low enough to accommodate you.

I was merely getting at the fact that the initial 5% number was come to because the idea of losing all 20 of your 'buyins' if you are playing well is mathematically 'unlikely', however 1 outers are 'unlikely' and they do happen, so if that happens a few times you can easily do in a 20 buyin roll if you are not also continually moving down as the roll changes size.

5toneFace

Bankroll rules are different from cash to sit and gos/tournaments. Looks like your playing tournaments so 5% rule doesnt work. Variance is much bigger in tournaments/sngs so you should adjust your games accordingly. A 1% or 0.5% rule is better for them

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to variance?:

hi hope you all can help me here im really struggling at the mo i cant win a scooby snack not alone a tourny so far have managed to lose my £100 br playing the 5% so u can see how bad this run has gone i put the cash on last night for the 8pm tourny i lasted 3 hands twice had full house only to be busted by 4 of a kind thought that was unreal to be busted twice like that when i thought i was so ahead ask boonicon he was the player that killed me big style so then i thought i would pay and enter the 8pm tourny tonight only to get busted on the nut flush with a killer full house on the river then when having 900 chips left getting k 10 i raise to 200 trying to steal the blinds get 2 callers flop comes k 10 9 i move all in get two instant calls one shows a set of 9s other guy shows j q how can i play against this people call it variance but how does it get worked out ??????? on shark scope im showing 71 on tornys but only 54 on sit and goes  such a massive differance is that normall? please help me get over this as ive invested so much in skys bank i wouldnt mind taking some back lol
Posted by sim75

...Join the club....

sim75

lol dohh had boonicon been smashing you as well im still reeling from that hand i posted earlier as this hand is the prime example as to whats going on i know most of you will say well 99 times out of 100 i win well this hand has been my poker **** for about 2 weeks now im seriously discussing leaving and going to another site my bf played on here for a week he plays party poker mostly and does very well on there i talked him into playing on here after losing over 400 in 1 week he swears blinde this site is the worst for beats and losing streaks ive told him i will carry on here as the peeps on the forum are the best but gotta agree at the mo i just expect to lose every hand that i play

beaneh

In Response to Re: variance?:

lol dohh had boonicon been smashing you as well im still reeling from that hand i posted earlier as this hand is the prime example as to whats going on i know most of you will say well 99 times out of 100 i win well this hand has been my poker **** for about 2 weeks now im seriously discussing leaving and going to another site my bf played on here for a week he plays party poker mostly and does very well on there i talked him into playing on here after losing over 400 in 1 week he swears blinde this site is the worst for beats and losing streaks ive told him i will carry on here as the peeps on the forum are the best but gotta agree at the mo i just expect to lose every hand that i play
Posted by sim75

You're not meant to win every time your all in, Aces don't always hold and nor will your hand. Tis all part of the complex tapestry that is pokerz.

sim75

ok i understand about not winning all the time but would like to hold on when in front like this

MADPATDOTC	Small blind		10.00	10.00	1710.00
sim75	Big blind		20.00	30.00	1850.00
	Your hole cards	A 6
goldie01	Call		20.00	50.00	2680.00
GELDY	Fold
1ufc4eva	Fold
Fza	Fold
MADPATDOTC	Fold
sim75	Raise		60.00	110.00	1790.00
goldie01	Call		60.00	170.00	2620.00
Flop
		6 5 A
sim75	Bet		170.00	340.00	1620.00
goldie01	Raise		340.00	680.00	2280.00
sim75	All-in		1620.00	2300.00	0.00
goldie01	All-in		2280.00	4580.00	0.00
goldie01	Unmatched bet		830.00	3750.00	830.00
sim75	Show	A 6
goldie01	Show	A 5
Turn
		Q
River
		Q
goldie01	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and Queens	1875.00		2705.00
sim75	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and Queens	1875.00		1875.00

acebarry10

Hi sim

I have been like that for the last 4-5 weeks, Im getting close to taking a break again which is what is would suggest you do too

beaneh

In Response to Re: variance?:

Hi sim I have been like that for the last 4-5 weeks, Im getting close to taking a break again which is what is would suggest you do too
Posted by acebarry10

Meh 2pr vs 2pr, neither of you is folding, you didn't lose! 

Why did you raise pre flop though as you're going to be out of position with a small ace? 

MereNovice

In Response to Re: variance?:

Sky is fantasy poker for some. Any donk that calls me with junk draws the winning hand where I'm concerned. I've had weeks of it and it's not much fun, so either ride it out or go somewhere else or stop for a while. I lost with AKs vs A2os, QQ vs 94os and TT vs 22 twice, all in one mtt tonight. That's about the norm at the moment on here. There are a lot of poor players who think they are God's gift to poker on Sky. The problem is they keep hitting those one and two outers, game after game after game. Not too damaging in a cash game but in a tournament it's deadly.
Posted by elsadog

Er, sure.
So what would you consider calling a pf 4bb raise with 89 and cracking QQ with two pairs?
"Variance" or "luck" as it is more accurately termed works both ways.

oynutter

yeh elsadog!--you, you raise calling errmmm ermm ermmm caller of raises you!!!