is this hero call profitable over time?

phil12uk

You can't analyse this if you're not the player involved as these spots are history based which you know nothing  about so unless you get villain posting you can't know.
A profitable call is pretty simple, you have to work out do you think you're good enough in certain spots to make the call worth while. if villain thinks there is more than a 3-1 chance this is a bluff it's the correct call cause he's calling £230 to win £690. think this is right anyways

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: is this hero call profitable over time?:

I never understand this poker saying "right play/call over time" - because every single time is different? Say u make this call everytime - and its right 80% of the time and wrong 20% of the time - Does that mean its the right call everytime? If its possible to make the call 80% of the time, and every time u make it it's right, and fold it the 20% of the time when iyou are behind, then surely you should be aiming for this - rather than making the same play everytime and being right the majority of times.... Am I making sense? lol Tikay says it alot on the shows and I never understand it.... Who cares if its right over time, your playing this particular hand, right now, and its wether its right or wrong now is all that matters? With all the varieables and situations you get in poker, I hate it when people use that term. The play from player A does look a tad desperate though, havin check called all the way, why's he shoving all in on the end if he's willing to risk his whole 250bb stack to win the hand - surely its best to do it on the earlier streets when he has 2 chances?
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

If it was possible then you would obviously aim to make the right play every time. But if you dont know what the right play is and the same exact situation (i know they are all slightly different but you do get similiar situations occurring) arises 100 times, if you know a call will be right 80% of the time and a fold will be right 20% of the time then you should always call because 80% of the time you are right, so if you call every time then the call is right every time...

for example, say you have KK and the villain open shoves 100BBs preflop, assume for some reason you are certain he only does this with AA, KK, QQ and JJ. You have no way of knowing which of these hands he has though when it is your decision to call or fold. Against this range KK will win about 60% of the time, so therefore you should call every time, sometimes you will be up against AA and it will have been a 'bad' call but the rest of the time you will be crushing QQ and JJ or chopping with KK... you have no way of knowing when the villain has AA so you should always call because instead of looking at every situation (for example he has QQ this time and you are 80% favourite and pat yourself on the back) then you should see it in the long run as you are always 60% favourite to win the hand before the cards are flipped... so you are getting it in as 60% favourite and are certain of this, therefore it is always the right call and you should never fold. It's just like when you get your money in good on the flop, you dont know what the turn and river will do but you know you got your money in ahead, my example situation is the same... you dont know his exact hand, but you know what he could possibly have and are therefore getting your money in good against his range.

phil12uk

This hand arose last night. I wasn't in the hand and am actually glad as I don't know if I could have called on the river - even with my hand.  Question is - 'The call on the end was correct but is it really right over time as I don't believe I'd be making it?' 

Both players were playing pretty laggy in the time I'd been there.

Player A	Small blind		£1.00	£1.00	£491.71
phil12uk	Big blind		£2.00	£3.00	£225.40
	Your hole cards	A 6
Hero	Raise		£12.00	£15.00	£333.15
ajs4385	Fold
al873killl	Fold
RemyMartin	Fold
Player A	Call		£11.00	£26.00	£480.71
phil12uk	Fold
Flop
		5 4 3
Player A	Check
Hero	Bet		£26.00	£52.00	£307.15
Player A	Call		£26.00	£78.00	£454.71
Turn
		7
Player A	Check
Hero	Bet		£78.00	£156.00	£229.15
Player A	Call		£78.00	£234.00	£376.71
River
		5
Player A	Bet		£234.00	£468.00	£142.71
Hero	All-in		£229.15	£697.15	£0.00
Player A	Unmatched bet		£4.85	£692.30	£147.56
Player A	Show	Q K
Hero	Show	7 3
Hero	Win	Two Pairs, 7s and 5s	£690.50		£690.50

DOHHHHHHH

I never understand this poker saying "right play/call over time" - because every single time is different?

Say u make this call everytime - and its right 80% of the time and wrong 20% of the time - Does that mean its the right call everytime?

If its possible to make the call 80% of the time, and every time u make it it's right, and fold it the 20% of the time when iyou are behind, then surely you should be aiming for this - rather than making the same play everytime and being right the majority of times....

Am I making sense? lol

Tikay says it alot on the shows and I never understand it....

Who cares if its right over time, your playing this particular hand, right now, and its wether its right or wrong now is all that matters?

With all the varieables and situations you get in poker, I hate it when people use that term.

The play from player A does look a tad desperate though, havin check called all the way, why's he shoving all in on the end if he's willing to risk his whole 250bb stack to win the hand - surely its best to do it on the earlier streets when he has 2 chances?

beaneh

this isn't profitable over time

doh said 

"Who cares if its right over time, your playing this particular hand, right now, and its wether its right or wrong now is all that matters?"

My response to that is DOH! :-0

You have to look at every situation in the long run, otherwise you just become results orientated.

DOHHHHHHH

If its possible to make the right decision every single time, then that's what i'll aim to do

Especially when the hand is played out as above, and u have so much information to make a decision...

PF shoves from an unknown player - yea, I guess the "over time thing" applies.

beaneh

In Response to Re: is this hero call profitable over time?:

If its possible to make the right decision every single time, then that's what i'll aim to do Especially when the hand is played out as above, and u have so much information to make a decision... PF shoves from an unknown player - yea, I guess the "over time thing" applies.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Wait so what's the correct move, if the guy will call pre and c/c flop and turn and lead the river regardless of texture, 80% of the time he has a value hand, 20% of the time he has nothing. Are you saying you play so good as to just call to the river and call the river the correct 20% of the time?

Poker is not that simple, hence you have to think about ranges rather than the specific hand they have one time.

DOHHHHHHH

Well thats why theres terrible poker players, bad players, average players, good players, very good players, and world class players I guess.

As with anything - theres always players that are gonna be better at the game than others.

And before anyone has a pop, Im not classing myself as any of the above, but obviously I aim to be at the higher end of that spectrum....

The guys who get the marginal/hard decisions right more often than not are the best players.

I guess the guys who make "the right decisions over time" are gonna be winning players...

But urely ur always trying to improve as a poker player...

Long term, is just a series of loads of short terms.

(Obv the decisions are easier at different levels - which may explain the naivety of my comments)

DOHH

beaneh

In Response to Re: is this hero call profitable over time?:

Well thats why theres terrible poker players, bad players, average players, good players, very good players, and world class players I guess. As with anything - theres always players that are gonna be better at the game than others. And before anyone has a pop, Im not classing myself as any of the above, but obviously I aim to be at the higher end of that spectrum.... The guys who get the marginal/hard decisions right more often than not are the best players. I guess the guys who make "the right decisions over time" are gonna be winning players... But urely ur always trying to improve as a poker player... Long term, is just a series of loads of short terms. (Obv the decisions are easier at different levels - which may explain the naivety of my comments) DOHH
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

I think what i'm getting at more is that if you call and are wrong, doesn't meant your play was bad in the long run just in the short term, sometimes  you call and expect to win most of the time but are also totally aware that you could just run into the top of your opponents range and be beaten.

Just as with winning allin with the worst of it doesn't validate getting it in bad, neither does calling and losing mean you made a bad play.

OMahonyO

dohh, i reckon its like the kk vs aa debate.  You know ur gonna run ur kk into aa on occasions but thats ok because it is still profitable long term to never fold pre flop