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Call or Fold?
Dudeskin8
Member Posts: 6,228
| Penguin09 | Small blind | 15.00 | 15.00 | 5770.00 | |
| Dudeskin8 | Big blind | 30.00 | 45.00 | 5050.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Valis | Fold | ||||
| martoni0 | Fold | ||||
| Dave1989 | Call | 30.00 | 75.00 | 9470.00 | |
| Penguin09 | Call | 15.00 | 90.00 | 5755.00 | |
| Dudeskin8 | Check | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| Penguin09 | Check | ||||
| Dudeskin8 | Bet | 67.50 | 157.50 | 4982.50 | |
| Dave1989 | Call | 67.50 | 225.00 | 9402.50 | |
| Penguin09 | Call | 67.50 | 292.50 | 5687.50 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Penguin09 | Check | ||||
| Dudeskin8 | Bet | 219.38 | 511.88 | 4763.12 | |
| Dave1989 | Call | 219.38 | 731.26 | 9183.12 | |
| Penguin09 | Fold | ||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| Dudeskin8 | Bet | 548.45 | 1279.71 | 4214.67 | |
| Dave1989 | All-in | 9183.12 | 10462.83 | 0.00 | |
Comments
Looking at the hands that potentially have you beaten, we're looking at pocket 4's, 7's, 8's, K's, 5/6 or 2 diamonds. If he's hit a set on the flop with 2 hearts, he's unlikely to call instead of reraise, I think. Same with turn, if he gets his set and nothing happens, he's still dropping it. The river card is where his strategy changes- he's calling until there, and at the end he bets heavily. With pocket K's he's raising pre, or at least on the flop if he's trapping. So I'd rule that out. 5/6 is a possibility- again, he may be trapping on the turn- bad play if so, I think. So I'd go with him sitting on 2 diamonds, probably ace high with a raggy second card- it's cheap pre and post flop to call, he's hit his draw on the turn and on the river he gets the nut flush. I can't see him reraising you all in with nothing, and when he reraises- I'd be confident I'm behind.
Having said all that, trips aren't easy to fold especially early... it's a lot easier to analyse this in hindsight so I dunno, maybe I would call. I think I would normally grudgingly fold that though, with one or two river curses. I think you played the hand pretty well, though the early betting maybe could have been stronger- at least you didn't sit and trap with it, or you would have deserved everything you get.
When he pushed all in I suddenly started thinking how i was beat, any other set he'd surely have raised somewhere else and it probably would have went in earlier, there was also the flush possiblity but that was more of a longshot for me as he would need to have like A8ds K8ds, although wouldn't he raise the flop with that. In the end I don't think I had enough time to think it all through properly and put him on K8 or another two pair where he'd caught up on river and went crazy. Unfortunately he turned over J9 diamonds and I was out.....
I guess I could have bet more on flop to stop someone calling for a GUTSHOT on flop, oh and two overs ofcourse lol. But in the end I should have realised I could have let this one go and remain in the tourney with still plenty of play left.