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WHATS THE ODDS?

BADBOY985BADBOY985 Member Posts: 1,957
edited July 2009 in Poker Chat

ME AGAIN JUST BEEN PLAYING DEEPSTACK MTT. 2.5HRS IN I GET THIS HAND JH 9H.
FLOP 9C 6D 9D TURN 8D RIVER JS. AFTER RAISES AND RERAISES AFTER RIVER I GET ALL MY CHIPS IN AGAINST CHIP LEADER DECIDE WHICH OF MY VICTORY DANCES TO DO!!
WHEN MY OPPONENT TURNS OVER 7D 10D.
I KNOW I POSSIBLY SHOULD MAYBE HAVE PUSHED EARLIER BUT THE GUY HAS 4 TIMES MY STACK AND WOULD PROBABLY CALLED AS IM 4 OF 4 AND GETTING ME OUT GUARNTEES HIM A MONEY FINISH.
SO BACK TO MY ORRIGINAL QUESTIONS CAN ANY OF YOU CLEVER PEOPLE TELL ME THE ODDS TO 1 OF HIM HITTING THE ONLY2 CARDS IN THE PACK TO BEAT ME?

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Comments

  • STEPHEN66STEPHEN66 Member Posts: 8
    edited July 2009
    Only read your post once but I think you`re saying after the flop he had to hit to specific cards to beat you?

    If so he needs one of 2 out of 47 cards on the turn. Roughly 24/1

    Then 1 out of 46 cards on the river. 45/1.

    24 x 45 = 1080/1.

    Bad beat.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,251
    edited July 2009

    Hi BADBOY,

    If I understand you properly, your Opponent never needed to hit two Cards - he only needed 1 card, (the 8d) with 2 Cards to come. In fact, he Turned it with a Card to spare, but that's irrelevant. 

    At that stage, you were well behind (drawing dead, in fact) & it was a little unlucky that you Rivered your House, which led you to think your hand was good. It was a "cooler".

    He had a LOT of Outs on that Flop - he had all the Flush Outs, Straight Outs, & Straight Flush Out, too.

    Still, you were a little unlucky, but that's the sheer beauty of the game, as it works equally both for & against us.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,251
    edited July 2009

    PS - Badboy, I just checked - you were "only" a 2/1 favourite on that Flop. (65.86% v 34.14%). 2/1 is big, but not huge, by any means.
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  • STEPHEN66STEPHEN66 Member Posts: 8
    edited July 2009

    Apologies, if I didn`t bother reading your post properly. Thought you were saying he needed runner,runner not 1 out on the turn OR river.

    Stick with listening to Tony, he`s been playing a lot longer than me.

    I only started in the late 50`s.

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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,251
    edited July 2009
    In Response to Re: WHATS THE ODDS?:
    Only read your post once but I think you`re saying after the flop he had to hit to specific cards to beat you? If so he needs one of 2 out of 47 cards on the turn. Roughly 24/1 Then 1 out of 46 cards on the river. 45/1. 24 x 45 = 1080/1. Bad beat.
    Posted by STEPHEN66
    Yes, he said that, but it's incorrect - he said "after the Flop", when in fact, he never hit his House until the River, by which time he was already drawing dead.

    To beat the (yet-to-be Rivered) House, he had 1 Out, with 2 Cards to come, = 4%, or 25/1. BUT, at that stage, Post-Flop, Pre-Turn, ANY Flushing or straighting (Minus the Boat Outs) out would be good. That's a wholly different thing!
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,251
    edited July 2009
    In Response to Re: WHATS THE ODDS?:
    Apologies, if I didn`t bother reading your post properly. Thought you were saying he needed runner,runner not 1 out on the turn OR river. Stick with listening to Tony, he`s been playing a lot longer than me. I only started in the late 50`s.
    Posted by STEPHEN66
    Sigh, behave you.....
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  • BADBOY985BADBOY985 Member Posts: 1,957
    edited July 2009
    SORRY SHOULD HAVE SAID HOLDING NOT HITTING THE 2 CARDS.
    MANY THANKS TO ALL WHO HAVE REPLIED TO BOTH MY POSTS TODAY.
    IVE ONLY BEEN PLAYING 3 YEARS AND IVE LEARNED MORE I COUPLE OF WEEKS IN THIS COMUNITY THAN IN PREVIOUS 3 YEARS.
    IM NOT A GREAT LOVER OF READING BOOKS, THE LAST ON I READ WAS NO HELP AT ALL, THAT JANET AND JOHN KNOW CHUFF ALL ABOUT POKER!! 
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