Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?

Strat91

Villain is a good regular at 50NL. He plays something like 18/15 over a 500 hand sample. He's somewhat aggressive, probably a reasonable hand reader.

How do you guys feel about bluffing here? Both the flush and straight draw hit, and he has hands that are stronger than mine in his range that will fold to a certain betsize (hands like sets, overpairs, two pair). But probably every once in a while he's check/calling with a ten, or planning to c/r a flush.

What amount are you betting if you do choose to bluff?

Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $40.45
SB: $48.05
BB: $36.80
UTG: $63.85
MP: $98.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Js Ac
UTG raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) Jd 8d 9s (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 5h (2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.75) 7d (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero should bluff?

philmenow

In Response to Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?:

Villain is a good regular at 50NL. He plays something like 18/15 over a 500 hand sample. He's somewhat aggressive, probably a reasonable hand reader. How do you guys feel about bluffing here? Both the flush and straight draw hit, and he has hands that are stronger than mine in his range that will fold to a certain betsize (hands like sets, overpairs, two pair). But probably every once in a while he's check/calling with a ten, or planning to c/r a flush. What amount are you betting if you do choose to bluff? Hero (CO): $50.00 BTN: $40.45 SB: $48.05 BB: $36.80 UTG: $63.85 MP: $98.75 Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Js Ac UTG raises to $1.50 , 1 fold , Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds Flop: ($3.75) Jd 8d 9s (2 players) UTG bets $2.50 , Hero calls $2.50 Turn: ($8.75) 5h (2 players) UTG bets $6 , Hero calls $6 River: ($20.75) 7d (2 players) UTG checks, Hero should bluff?
Posted by Strat91

no bluff....

Strat91

In Response to Re: Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?:

In Response to Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff? : no bluff....
Posted by philmenow

It would be helpful if you justified that.

philmenow

In Response to Re: Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?:

In Response to Re: Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff? : It would be helpful if you justified that.
Posted by Strat91

hmm,well if u had hit ,say ur flush ud most likely want him to call ur bet,so it wouldnt be massif,say $7-$10..but him betting all streets and then checking river means hes scared of the board or hes hit(and wants you to bet),if you then bet that small hes likely to come over the top(possibly even if he hasnt hit str8 or flush) and then what?and obviously if you bet bigger and hes hit then ur giving it away(or he folds and you still win $20)..id take the $20 pot and be happy that i won that...thats if ur top pair top kikka is winning

philmenow

think u should have raised post flop,find out where you were..or at least on turn..

lynx3ffect

whats his view of you? has he seen how you play draws? assuming he has as much of a read on u as u do of him (i/e not much) he cant really call a bet on the river

unless he has TT i think you can rule out a T in his range and he most likely bet folds the river with a T anyway

bet 13-16 and he folds QQ-AA , 18/15 most likely not firing 2 barrels with less than that and he doesnt beat anything on that river

Strat91

In Response to Re: Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?:

whats his view of you? has he seen how you play draws? assuming he has as much of a read on u as u do of him (i/e not much) he cant really call a bet on the river unless he has TT i think you can rule out a T in his range and he most likely bet folds the river with a T anyway bet 13-16 and he folds QQ-AA , 18/15 most likely not firing 2 barrels with less than that and he doesnt beat anything on that river
Posted by lynx3ffect

Thank you for an intelligent post.

CLIOKID

In Response to Re: Turn top pair top kicker into a bluff?:

whats his view of you? has he seen how you play draws? assuming he has as much of a read on u as u do of him (i/e not much) he cant really call a bet on the river unless he has TT i think you can rule out a T in his range and he most likely bet folds the river with a T anyway bet 13-16 and he folds QQ-AA , 18/15 most likely not firing 2 barrels with less than that and he doesnt beat anything on that river
Posted by lynx3ffect

Don't ever rule out the spite call though.