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Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?

aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
edited May 2010 in Poker Chat


Certainly Poker is primarily a game of skill.  But rather than it being a game of luck, isn't it better that it's seen as a game of chance?


Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?  It seems to be a "half empty, half full" type of question where the answer might depend upon how positive you are.











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  • ALIVEHAT60ALIVEHAT60 Member Posts: 125
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    Certainly Poker is primarily a game of skill.   But rather than it being a game of luck , isn't it better that it's seen as a game of chance ? Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?  It seems to be a "half empty, half full" type of question where the answer might depend upon how positive you are.
    Posted by aussie09
    There is no 'Certainly' in poker..!!!, and I dispute the 'skill' in poker. Poker is about knowledge of the game,(and there is more to that than meets the eye) and of your opponents if possible,and then it is down to the 'LUCK' of the draw. All this cliche rubbish 'poker gods','thats poker' it's simply the coin flip or turn of the cards,playing cards that is.                                                                                                                   Kind regards
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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3 Member Posts: 2,418
    edited May 2010
    Ya its all skill long term. And there is no 'luck' it's better to see it as chance.
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  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ Member Posts: 6,804
    edited May 2010
    The words 'luck', 'chance' and 'skill' can all be used to describe individual poker hands.

    However, in my opinion 'skill' is only one of those three words that can be used to explain long-term results. The luck & chance even out over many thousands of hands, leaving skill alone to account for gains or losses.
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  • MrWh1teMrWh1te Member Posts: 963
    edited May 2010
    Skill and Variance.

    Luck is just the word fish use that actually means variance.
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  • penguin7penguin7 Member Posts: 1,095
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    The words 'luck', 'chance' and 'skill' can all be used to describe individual poker hands. However, in my opinion 'skill' is only one of those three words that can be used to explain long-term results. The luck & chance even out over many thousands of hands, leaving skill alone to account for gains or losses.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    Spot on Gary !
    But players do tend to moan more about "luck" than "chance". And when they moan long term it becomes evident perhaps they should be focusing on "skill" rather than either of the other two .

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited May 2010

    Other way round.

    Variance is just the word that snobby, over-rated big headed  pro's use that actually means luck.
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  • MrWh1teMrWh1te Member Posts: 963
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    Other way round. Variance is just the word that snobby, over-rated big headed  pro's use that actually means luck.
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Two different things.

    Variance is more about odds over a long period of time.
    Luck is about something that is random.
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  • penguin7penguin7 Member Posts: 1,095
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance? : Two different things. Variance is more about odds over a long period of time. Luck is about something that is random.
    Posted by MrWh1te
    What? So variance is only long term ?

    I think I am with Dohhh on this one !

    Variance is also a word used by average poker players to justify a lack of skill.
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  • MrWh1teMrWh1te Member Posts: 963
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance? : What? So variance is only long term ?
    Posted by penguin7
    ok I will rephrase.

    variance is about odds and percentages that is best measured over a long period of time.
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  • oynutteroynutter Member Posts: 4,773
    edited May 2010
     Every single time I have ever won a tournament it was pure skill, but every time I got knocked out of one it was bad luck, or some chancer having too much luck
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  • Buster69Buster69 Member Posts: 135
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
     Every single time I have ever won a tournament it was pure skill, but every time I got knocked out of one it was bad luck, or some chancer having too much luck
    Posted by oynutter
    nice answer lol
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  • larry1959larry1959 Member Posts: 170
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    Certainly Poker is primarily a game of skill.   But rather than it being a game of luck , isn't it better that it's seen as a game of chance ? Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?  It seems to be a "half empty, half full" type of question where the answer might depend upon how positive you are.
    Posted by aussie09
    I think that Clint Eastwood could some this all up as 'Dirty Harry'..... ''you feel lucky punk???...well do ya??''
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  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited May 2010



    great responses.  

    i was proposing two things.

    the most successful players are those who are most skillful
    there is a correlation between the least successful players and those players who talk of luck.




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  • ALIVEHAT60ALIVEHAT60 Member Posts: 125
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    great responses.   i was proposing two things. the most successful players are those who are most skillful there is a correlation between the least successful players and those players who talk of luck.
    Posted by aussie09
    All you supposedly good players...???,how many times has your supposedly skilful play...??? helped you on the RIVER...!!!,the RIVER can be,and often is,the killer of all this supposedly skilful play...!!!. All the pats on the back,good play dude etc etc, is nothing more than one player having more 'LUCK' than the other,nothing whatsoever to do with skill,it's the RIVER of 'LUCK' or the RIVER of 'MUCK'.                  Kind regards
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  • namesb0ndnamesb0nd Member Posts: 402
    edited May 2010
    poker is almost all luck in my opinion.Sure there is some skill involved but the only reason the big pros are where they are is because they are in the top say 0.5% of people luck wise.



    ....just my opinion of course :)
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  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 7,831
    edited May 2010
    lets say i played say dantb over a million hands who would you think would come out on top,dan would of cause because hes more skillful at the game than i am by a long shot too,so skill very much comes into it,tho you still need the luck element to win
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  • dav1964dav1964 Member Posts: 2,526
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    lets say i played say dantb over a million hands who would you think would come out on top,dan would of cause because hes more skillful at the game than i am by a long shot too,so skill very much comes into it,tho you still need the luck element to win
    Posted by stokefc
    That only applies to h/u play on a six seater table over a million hands it WOULD be more luck than skill.gl dav
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance? : That only applies to h/u play on a six seater table over a million hands it WOULD be more luck than skill.gl dav
    Posted by dav1964
    That really depends on the difference in skill levels.
    Over 1 million hands I would expect any significant skill advantage to certainly be evident.
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  • elsadogelsadog Member Posts: 5,677
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance? : All you supposedly good players...???,how many times has your supposedly skilful play...??? helped you on the RIVER...!!!,the RIVER can be,and often is,the killer of all this supposedly skilful play...!!!. All the pats on the back,good play dude etc etc, is nothing more than one player having more 'LUCK' than the other,nothing whatsoever to do with skill,it's the RIVER of 'LUCK' or the RIVER of 'MUCK'.                  Kind regards
    Posted by ALIVEHAT60
    Luck does of course play a part in poker. However, luck is equal to all players in the long run. Luck may play a part over a short period but between two players it will even out over time, just as tossing a coin will even out over time. If a player wins a tournament with a field of 500 players he will need to have some luck to achieve that. Being lucky against all those players however is unlikely but as in bingo it can and does happen that by pure chance one player prevails against all others. If that same player again plays the same 500 man tournament and wins it then the chances of it being pure luck diminish. If that same player continues on and over a period wins 20, or 30 or 50 tournaments of 500 players then the luck factor goes out of the window. Similarly for a cash player who over an extended period shows a profit. It cannot be down to luck.

    If it were just down to luck then the tournament player who has defied odds of 500/1 on 50 occasions has achieved odds 25,000/1 and the number of individual hands he has won through luck would be astronomical. Luck affects all players but it's the skill factor that separates them into winners and losers. 

    I've won a few tournaments in my time but at the moment I can't win a hand......... does that make me lucky or unlucky?
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance?:
    In Response to Re: Skill and Luck or Skill and Chance? : Luck does of course play a part in poker. However, luck is equal to all players in the long run. Luck may play a part over a short period but between two players it will even out over time, just as tossing a coin will even out over time. If a player wins a tournament with a field of 500 players he will need to have some luck to achieve that. Being lucky against all those players however is unlikely but as in bingo it can and does happen that by pure chance one player prevails against all others. If that same player again plays the same 500 man tournament and wins it then the chances of it being pure luck diminish. If that same player continues on and over a period wins 20, or 30 or 50 tournaments of 500 players then the luck factor goes out of the window. Similarly for a cash player who over an extended period shows a profit. It cannot be down to luck. If it were just down to luck then the tournament player who has defied odds of 500/1 on 50 occasions has achieved odds 25,000/1 and the number of individual hands he has won through luck would be astronomical. Luck affects all players but it's the skill factor that separates them into winners and losers.  I've won a few tournaments in my time but at the moment I can't win a hand......... does that make me lucky or unlucky?
    Posted by elsadog
    To be strictly accurate, the results from tossing a coin are likely to even out over time - there is no law that says that they will.

    The odds of defying 500/1 on 50 occasions are much larger than 25,000/1 which, in fact, would be the odds of doing it twice (approximately).
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