What are the odds????

MAXALLY

I could of posted this in area51 the way I am feeling at the moment but can someone tell me the odds on this please........this is all geniune because I could not make this up!

THE FACTS

3 diff MTT's in the last few days.

Dealt AA. Forget position and chip stacks for a moment because it matters not in these situations.

One way or another, the chips go all in. Nothing strange so far you might say......

Up against KK everytime.......AND EVERYTIME AA LOSES TO KK!! (?????!!!!!!?????)

So, odds please on this? I know AA can be beaten. I know about variance. I even Know about downswings and 'running bad' (even though there are different veiws on this!!!, depends on who you are and what your BR is I gather, lol)


Rant over.....I hope I get a answer before thread will obv be moved!

spornybol

In Response to What are the odds????:

I could of posted this in area51 the way I am feeling at the moment but can someone tell me the odds on this please........this is all geniune because I could not make this up! THE FACTS 3 diff MTT's in the last few days. Dealt AA. Forget position and chip stacks for a moment because it matters not in these situations. One way or another, the chips go all in. Nothing strange so far you might say...... Up against KK everytime ....... AND EVERYTIME AA LOSES TO KK!! (?????!!!!!!?????) So, odds please on this? I know AA can be beaten. I know about variance. I even Know about downswings and 'running bad' (even though there are different veiws on this!!!, depends on who you are and what your BR is I gather, lol) Rant over.....I hope I get a answer before thread will obv be moved!
Posted by MAXALLY

I KNOW HOW U FEEL ALL IN WITH Q Q LOSE TO TRIP 2s AND THEY HIT THERE 2 ON RIVER, I KNOW THATS POKER BUT IT`S ALSO TAKING ( NO COMMENT) IT`S HAPPENING TO OFTEN NOW WELL IN FRONT PUSHIN AND CALLER GOES IN WITH KNOWT AND HITTING ON RIVER??

MAXALLY

SO, WHY HAS THIS THREAD BEEN MOVED THEN?????

A GENIUINE QUESTION ABOUT A GENIUNE POKER SCENARIO!!!

SKY RICH?.....ANYONE?......care to comment?

This could be the straw that broke the camals back!!!!!!

DOHHHHHHH

I wish alot of you forum regulars, who are good players, like yourself Alan, would just play cash solidly for 1 month! - Maybe the occasional MTT/STT for  laugh - but cash cash cashhhhhh !!!

1 month!!! - bankroll cash challenge or something, bet theres thousands of pounds to be made out there by you MTT - non-believers!!

I dunno about the odds, but I challenge Merenovice to figure it out using only pen and paper, no spreadsheets or calculators!

Sky_Rich

Apologies about this Alan. Just a slight misunderstanding i think.

I Hope you have a great bank holiday.

Rich

elsadog

Outrageous draws have taken their toll on me for quite some time. It seems every time I go in ahead someone calls and get the very card they need. The killer for me was last week when, at the river, the only card that could save my opponent was the 5 hearts. Imagine my surprise ( *intense sarcasm here ) when it arrived in the nick of time. The effect is that my game on here has gone to pieces as I am waiting for ''the trap'' to spring. I've moved away and just play an occasional game here now in the hope that it will somehow improve over time. I dare not play regularly as it really is affecting my game.

ps. I played three mtts elsewhere last week. I plopped early on in one but cashed in the other two. They both had over 4,000 runners and I came 24th and 17th. In the three I played on Sky I plopped in typical fashion.

Take a break and play somewhere else for a time Alan. If not it will affect your game and make it even worse. You need confidence to win at this game. Come back refreshed and hopefully start winning a few races.

Root_Kunal

In Response to Re: What are the odds????:

Outrageous draws have taken their toll on me for quite some time. It seems every time I go in ahead someone calls and get the very card they need. The killer for me was last week when, at the river, the only card that could save my opponent was the 5 hearts. Imagine my surprise ( *intense sarcasm here ) when it arrived in the nick of time. The effect is that my game on here has gone to pieces as I am waiting for ''the trap'' to spring. I've moved away and just play an occasional game here now in the hope that it will somehow improve over time. I dare not play regularly as it really is affecting my game. ps. I played three mtts elsewhere last week. I plopped early on in one but cashed in the other two. They both had over 4,000 runners and I came 24th and 17th. In the three I played on Sky I plopped in typical fashion. Take a break and play somewhere else for a time Alan. If not it will affect your game and make it even worse. You need confidence to win at this game. Come back refreshed and hopefully start winning a few races.
Posted by elsadog

I have not played proper on tis site in over amonth. When i choose to play on hear I just stick £20 and see how far I can run it up on the 15p/30p table if i get to say 50 60 then i cash it all out. I find if i play bingo i make some money if i try and play poker i dnt.....so i just stick to bingo aqnd win and happy daysz im up from 20 to around 50 nice

GaryQQQ

KK only has about 20% chance against AA when all-in pre-flop.

So the chances of the KK winning 3 in a row is 20% x 20% x 20% = 0.8%. Though if the KK has already won once the chances of it happening the next 2 times is 4%.

It's soul destroying to get 3 of these beats in a row, but remember that you are certain to win in this situation 4/5 times in the long run, it has absolutely massive +ev for you. For some reason the 1/5 beats linger in the memory for a long time, whereas the 4/5 times the rockets hold up are almost instantly forgotten. It could be that your aces held up on the previous 12 occasions, so these 3 beats only brought you back in line with the expected average, ie 12/15.

Bad luck never lasts forever, try not to tilt too bad, you'll soon be back on form if you're not already.