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Cant shake off the river

BlueyFTiRBlueyFTiR Member Posts: 6
edited July 2010 in The Poker Clinic
Ok guys so suppose this is going to be another bad play/bad beat story.  Managed to get my bankroll down to 0 and without exagerating 11 out of the last 12 SnG's I busted out by the river card.
Im not here to shout cheat etc...Just a friendly goodbye from me.  I guess online poker isn't my thing.
What did make me grin was even some of the players on the tables continually mentioned "Only on Sky"  And I have to say almost all the guys I played against were great, nice bit of banter (obviously there was a few idiots along the way too).
I set myself a target to be able to withdraw £50 so my deposits were even.
So upon parting I want to say thanks for putting up some great topics in the forums and thanks to all those I met along the way.
Its really confidence crushing when a fairly new player like me seems to have made the correct play and lose to runner runner or just river 90% of the time.
-One last whinge, banroll management - Done me no good as this has ran 3 days like this for me, will hold my hands up to some bad play the 1st day, but after dropping a level, I tightened up a bit and ...well, not much else I can say.Not sure what to do with my poins either but bye all - and again thanks.
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Comments

  • goodylad21goodylad21 Member Posts: 693
    edited July 2010
    You can run really baaaaaaad for weeks, never mind 3 days !!

    Chin up fella & keep plugging the luck evens out eventually :)
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  • dav1964dav1964 Member Posts: 2,526
    edited July 2010
    Not much i can really say tbh you sound a decent chap thats just had a bit of a bad run.If it helps all of us suffer these beats at some time and all you can do is keep playing your game until it turns.I hope you change your mind and maybe a short break is all you need.All the best m8 whatever you decide.dav
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited July 2010
    I think ive played against a few of those "only on sky" guys your talking about. Infact i had one when a lad went out with KK to 88 when AA was also beating him earler.

    It happens, however i think if you consistantly get your money in ahead, eventually you will get the run when everything holds up. As im a TD live i can assure you it does happen live aswell. I could name one last week. BB checks with K7 flop comes K95 2 spades one heart. SB bets BB re-raise SB calls. 7 of hearts on turn. SB goes all in BB call. SB shows 25 hearts, heart on river.
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  • dylan12dylan12 Member Posts: 2,343
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Cant shake off the river:
    Ok guys so suppose this is going to be another bad play/bad beat story.  Managed to get my bankroll down to 0 and without exagerating 11 out of the last 12 SnG's I busted out by the river card. Im not here to shout cheat etc...Just a friendly goodbye from me.  I guess online poker isn't my thing. What did make me grin was even some of the players on the tables continually mentioned "Only on Sky"  And I have to say almost all the guys I played against were great, nice bit of banter (obviously there was a few idiots along the way too). I set myself a target to be able to withdraw £50 so my deposits were even. So upon parting I want to say thanks for putting up some great topics in the forums and thanks to all those I met along the way. Its really confidence crushing when a fairly new player like me seems to have made the correct play and lose to runner runner or just river 90% of the time. -One last whinge, banroll management - Done me no good as this has ran 3 days like this for me, will hold my hands up to some bad play the 1st day, but after dropping a level, I tightened up a bit and ...well, not much else I can say.Not sure what to do with my poins either but bye all - and again thanks.
    Posted by BlueyFTiR
    Sorry to hear about your bad run, Im currently on a 4 month bad run at the moment and been rivered so many times I know what your on about - take a break and hopefully you will run better - things will change so just think positively!! Gl to you m8!!
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  • stoneface1stoneface1 Member Posts: 92
    edited July 2010
    its happened to me tonight in ways that are mathematically improbable to say the least: evry tournie and every table throws them up constantly. statistically speaking the more you play and see the less it should happen because the best hands should run with the odds eventually. thats why the best poker players are the best! but they couldn't do it on here!! its not a question of cheating but can you imagine what would happen if the best players and the best hands carried without odd defying beats on a regular basis? the novices,gamblers and fish would get beat up on a regular basis and in short order and would disappear as quick their bankrolls would allow. its pointless carping on about personal losses( it happens both ways ) but it is definitely not what you see live, either watching or playing. there are several internet threads on the subject and the arguments that suggest the possibility of jerrymandering are quite interesting and plausible! this site is a money making enterprises for SKY and i for one think that is the 1st and foremost consideration at all times! people will always say 'it happens' or 'luck evens itself out', other cliche's abound but the truth is poker is defined by odds and every deck and hand is a statistical and mathematical probability! if those odds and statistics are regularly displaced it can only mean one thing: metaphorically speaking blueyFTir; if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, its because it is a duck!! :))
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited July 2010

    When 2 drunken clowns collide.

    Does this class as a bad beat??? haha
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    Red_King Small blind  £0.05 £0.05 £11.58
    del9 Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £2.25
      Your hole cards
    • K
    • 7
    		     
    theresa1 Fold     
    Eagle26 Raise  £0.40 £0.55 £23.95
    DOHHHHHHH Call  £0.40 £0.95 £51.28
    Red_King Fold     
    del9 Fold     
    Flop
       
    • 5
    • 9
    • 3
    		     
    Eagle26 Bet  £0.71 £1.66 £23.24
    DOHHHHHHH Raise  £2.00 £3.66 £49.28
    Eagle26 Raise  £5.00 £8.66 £18.24
    DOHHHHHHH Raise  £16.08 £24.74 £33.20
    Eagle26 All-in  £18.24 £42.98 £0.00
    DOHHHHHHH Call  £5.87 £48.85 £27.33
    Eagle26 Show
    • J
    • Q
    		   
    DOHHHHHHH Show
    • K
    • 7
    		   
    Turn
       
    • 3
    		     
    River
       
    • A
    		     
    Eagle26 Win Flush to the Ace £47.45  £47.45
    BUT I GOT IT IN GOOOD!!!!! - I THINK? POKER CALCULATRICE ANYONE????
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited July 2010
    You were a 46.5% dog.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited July 2010

    No wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy I remember it going in on the turn - If I can see his cards, is it a winning play over time?

    **** Eagle and his bare queen high flush draws.

    The sooner someone fixes his laptop so the fold button works, the better !!!
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited July 2010
    On the turn you were 68% so, if the money went in then, you would have been ahead.
    Given his hand it would obviously be a winning play over time.

    However, he's not always going to have that hand, is he?
    If he had AsKc (or similar), you'd have been drawing a bit thin, wouldn't you?
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Cant shake off the river:
    On the turn you were 68% so, if the money went in then, you would have been ahead. Given his hand it would obviously be a winning play over time. However, he's not always going to have that hand, is he? If he had AsKc (or similar), you'd have been drawing a bit thin, wouldn't you?
    Posted by MereNovice

    If he had a set of nines, I'd have been drawing dead!

    ...But he didn't....

                           .......and I wasn't .....

                                                              ;):):)
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited July 2010
    Yes, but we've already established that your memory is faulty and that you were, in fact, a dog even to his hand when the money went in.

    ;-))) :-)))
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  • JingleMaJingleMa Member Posts: 1,319
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Cant shake off the river:
    In Response to Re: Cant shake off the river : If he had a set of nines, I'd have been drawing dead! ...But he didn't....                        .......and I wasn't .....                                                           ;):):)
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Hi Doh, hand history shows money went in on the flop but I guess there was a bit of "history" behind this hand! 8- />

    Also, Stoneface - the best players on this site make thousands per month, every month so it can be done on here, just like anywhere else. A good poker player is a winning poker player, so try focusing on improving your game and you will reap the results.*

    *NB - Its not easy, you really have to work hard at your game if you want to improve and make money - this is how all the top pros have done it and will continue to do it in the future. Doyle Brunson has been a top earning pro for decades but he contstantly works on his game to keep up with new trends which happen all the time in poker, just like they do in other games/sports.

    I have been playing mtt's and stt's on sky for over two years, and although I am up overall, I have never made a consistent profit, just a few big wins here and there. I then tried to build up a consistent profit from DYM's, but this didn't work either. So I finally took the advice which Doh has been consistently preaching in the forum and took up cash recently. Almost immediately, I have seen my game improve and take on a new dimension.

    But my journey has only just begun. To quote an ancient Chinese proverb - "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."

    Anyway, I hope some of these ramblings have made sense and I wish you and everyone else all the best on your own poker journies.
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  • stoneface1stoneface1 Member Posts: 92
    edited July 2010
    @jinglema,
    i accept almost entirely what you are saying but i wasn't actually referring to the cash format to be fair. i know how people make regular money on the cash tables and your novice cash player gets hammered if they don't know what happens. multi-tabling waiting for premium hands against single table players and average players or gamblers is the way i know and it works! i've had a little dabble on the cash tables but really dont like the nature of the beast but, and this is important, when ive been sat at the tables they dont throw up the same number of combinated hands, bad beats and river beats. from casual and limited observance that is hardly scientific but noted on my part.
    trying to improve 1's game and mental approach is something i have been working on for 12 months now and will continue to do so as long as i play, but i will always do it from a mathematical perspective. its boring mentioning the beats that occur both for and against but where tournies are concerned improbable events happen far too frequently in my opinion. right down to being 4 and 3 handed when the software seems to fail further by not recognising the change in statistical odds for less players.
    its my choice to play online poker with whichever provider and as such i am the creator of my own frustrations but i am not a mug or a fool(as some on here seem to imply) and will leave you with this little odds defying table play: quads to the table 3x in 5 hands with runner,runner twice needed by the s.stack to stay in and 4x in 7 hands in total??? i wont bore you with other notes of mine recent and old but somebody do the math on that 1 for me please.  :))
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  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Cant shake off the river:
    @jinglema, i accept almost entirely what you are saying but i wasn't actually referring to the cash format to be fair. i know how people make regular money on the cash tables and your novice cash player gets hammered if they don't know what happens. multi-tabling waiting for premium hands against single table players and average players or gamblers is the way i know and it works! i've had a little dabble on the cash tables but really dont like the nature of the beast but, and this is important, when ive been sat at the tables they dont throw up the same number of combinated hands, bad beats and river beats. from casual and limited observance that is hardly scientific but noted on my part. trying to improve 1's game and mental approach is something i have been working on for 12 months now and will continue to do so as long as i play, but i will always do it from a mathematical perspective. its boring mentioning the beats that occur both for and against but where tournies are concerned improbable events happen far too frequently in my opinion. right down to being 4 and 3 handed when the software seems to fail further by not recognising the change in statistical odds for less players. its my choice to play online poker with whichever provider and as such i am the creator of my own frustrations but i am not a mug or a fool(as some on here seem to imply) and will leave you with this little odds defying table play: quads to the table 3x in 5 hands with runner,runner twice needed by the s.stack to stay in and 4x in 7 hands in total??? i wont bore you with other notes of mine recent and old but somebody do the math on that 1 for me please.  :))
    Posted by stoneface1

    The probability of quads doesn't chance regardless of how many times quads has already come about.


    I've been running bad for about 5-6 months now, barely able to win a pot. It happens to everyone, and the thought that everyone wins every month is very very wrong.
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  • Eagle26Eagle26 Member Posts: 431
    edited July 2010

    dohhhhhhh u have just destroyed my tight image posting this! u cant bluff an idiot mate

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  • stoneface1stoneface1 Member Posts: 92
    edited July 2010
    @beaneh,
    mathematical probability is not the easiest of concepts and i do not mean to be patronising when i suggest that most people fail to grasp what actual affect it has in reality. thats why people that play roulette and craps believe they have a reasonable chance of winning when in point of fact the tables are rigged with specific odds in tune with mathematical probability. anomalies will always occur but not so regular that they can deny mathematical probability. only outside factors can change statistical probability on anything other than an irregular basis but once again i must re-iterate i am not 'running bad' as you might say and my fixation with odds and maths helps me to prevent that.
    running bad for 5-6 months beaneh would suggest to me that you may want to think a little about what i am saying with an open mind; some professional players make every play based solely on odds and mathematical probability so what i am saying is not pie in the sky.
    hope your running changes beaneh!!!
    p.s the odds for the quads scenario is massive mate,,like winning the lottery with the same numbers twice in succesion( exagerrating somewhat ).  ;) 
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Cant shake off the river:
    @jinglema, i accept almost entirely what you are saying but i wasn't actually referring to the cash format to be fair. i know how people make regular money on the cash tables and your novice cash player gets hammered if they don't know what happens. multi-tabling waiting for premium hands against single table players and average players or gamblers is the way i know and it works! i've had a little dabble on the cash tables but really dont like the nature of the beast but, and this is important, when ive been sat at the tables they dont throw up the same number of combinated hands, bad beats and river beats. from casual and limited observance that is hardly scientific but noted on my part. trying to improve 1's game and mental approach is something i have been working on for 12 months now and will continue to do so as long as i play, but i will always do it from a mathematical perspective. its boring mentioning the beats that occur both for and against but where tournies are concerned improbable events happen far too frequently in my opinion. right down to being 4 and 3 handed when the software seems to fail further by not recognising the change in statistical odds for less players. its my choice to play online poker with whichever provider and as such i am the creator of my own frustrations but i am not a mug or a fool(as some on here seem to imply) and will leave you with this little odds defying table play: quads to the table 3x in 5 hands with runner,runner twice needed by the s.stack to stay in and 4x in 7 hands in total??? i wont bore you with other notes of mine recent and old but somebody do the math on that 1 for me please.  :))
    Posted by stoneface1
    This is nonsense. The software (in terms of the RNG) doesn't change depending on the number of players sitting at the table. The software does not use statistical odds - it generates a random deck and "deals" the cards from it.
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  • stoneface1stoneface1 Member Posts: 92
    edited July 2010
    @mere novice
    you want to learn to read pal because you put your own twist on what people are saying!! stop trying to interpret what i say for your own commentary. statistically speaking strong hands become stronger and weak hands become weaker as well as the odds changing for a short handed table but this doesn't always appear to happen in my opinion!!!! among other fields you are specialist in, no doubt you have a degree in software engineering also? with so many profound talents you should consider an alternative career other than lauding it over everyone's opinions within this chosen domain. MERE NOVICE for prime minister, in that sphere being full of your own self importance would benefit your crass remarks and ability to misinterpret or twist people's comments or intentions!! xx
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  • stoneface1stoneface1 Member Posts: 92
    edited July 2010
    @diablo pez
    1.what are the chances of you shuffling a deck of cards into suit order??
    2.what are the chances of doing it twice in a row?
    3.what are the chances of doing it 3 in a rowtimes?
    4.have you ever heard of accumalator odds?
    5.having know concept of the laws of probability doesn't justify making comments to prove it!  ;)
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