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Selective Memories
Donut64
Member Posts: 2,666
As I have put elsewere in the Forum to many people that moan about bad beats and blame Sky Poker seem to have selective memories they dont seen to remember all the times their good hands hold up or when they beat the odds all they seem to remember is the hands they lose with.
Yes the big stack will dish out more bad beats to the small stack because they can call with a much wider range of hands without to much risk to thier stack but for those with less selective memories we will also realise they double up off the big stack more often too! I know this because I have often been the big stack and failed to cash in the end let alone win. So the theory that the big stack always wins the hand is just total paranoia or I would have won many more MTT than I have!
Also remember even if you are 80% fav to win a hand the other play is only 4/1 to beat you, but if you only remember your bad beats it will always seem like it happens more.
So open your minds because if you always fear the bad beats it will ruin your game and will spoil your fun of the game!
Yes the big stack will dish out more bad beats to the small stack because they can call with a much wider range of hands without to much risk to thier stack but for those with less selective memories we will also realise they double up off the big stack more often too! I know this because I have often been the big stack and failed to cash in the end let alone win. So the theory that the big stack always wins the hand is just total paranoia or I would have won many more MTT than I have!
Also remember even if you are 80% fav to win a hand the other play is only 4/1 to beat you, but if you only remember your bad beats it will always seem like it happens more.
So open your minds because if you always fear the bad beats it will ruin your game and will spoil your fun of the game!
Comments
I prefer to be the big stack for that reason. I think i took two people out once with 78 suited in the space of three hands, they had aces both times, but wasnt even a dent on my stack to see a flop if i can hit straight/flush etc.
thing is its not always going to go by the book but thats the fun of poker! happens everywhere as the cards are random so people just relax a bit because essentially you let it get to you then you wont be playing your normal game and you will start losing more
I got a few bad beats yesterday in 2 tourneys but as we know it happens deal with it
"I'm not moaning, but...................."
timeless classic :0)
CLUBS ;O)
Fair point donut but lets look at a some examples,
AA v Q9 on 974 flop, 88% equity
KK v AQ on Q74 flop, 81% equity
QQ v QJ on J53 flop, 91% equity
3 hands I played this weekend, all were all in on flop, turns were, 9, A and J
several more occurred between Sat pm and Monday pm
one more example
77 v k4 on k74 flop, 91% equity
all in on flop, river a k – Monday pm
I also sucked out with KK v AA with an K on the turn and QJ on a QQ4x board v 44 with a J on the river during the same period, both after all the money went in, I do notice when I benefit too. In addition I saw several other players losing with very similar high equity hands post all in.
If I'm honest with 90% equity all in on the flop or turn I have little confidence in winning 90% of the time, why is this? How confident are players all in pre AK v AJ, are you 75% confident?
The need is for greater transparency for players and the answer is for Sky Poker to support Holdem Manager and/or Poker Tracker because these programs provide data on how a player is running verses expected value. This would end “selective memory” because the data would be available in black and white, if your running bad these programmes tell you you are and they always remember when your hand holds up.
Another issue is the random card generator. Who verifies it? Who supplies it? Where can poker players find the data to validate it is indeed 100% random? Is this confirmed by an independent body? How many people avoid on line poker because they have nagging doubts about it? I know a few who do.
One other point, I have read on another forum that the generator continues to shuffle the cards whilst the hand is in play to ensure greater randomisation, if this is accurate it it is at odds with the true game. How would live players react to a dealer shuffling the pack as players make their decisions after the flop, and turn?
I agree short term variance is very likely responsible for a lack of confidence in the expected outcome, but if Sky supported tracking software on the site and the industry commissioned an independent body to validate the random card generator and then published its findings this would certainly help to build greater confidence in the validity of the game. Who knows it may end the “online poker is rigged” debate once and for all.
Here
Information on the verification of the RNG used by Sky Poker is here.
"Shuffling" the cards after the flop does not ensure greater randomisation. The randomisation for both methods are equivalent. It makes no difference if it mimics "live" poker or not - no online poker site uses "burn" cards as far as I know and, similarly, this does not affect the randomisation of the cards.
For what it's worth, Sky Poker does not operate in that manner. There is only one site that I am aware of that does act in that manner and I suspect that it is not actually a very good description of the technical implementation anyway.