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ASKING TK - Making a set from a pocket pair.
Phrank
Member Posts: 33
Hi TK,
I played an interesting hand yesterday. I had AA and was All-In against QQ & JJ. The set from a pair is 8.25/1 and therefore I think we are all equal at 2.75/1 the set on the flop and 1.65/1 on the board. The flop gave up a J and AA & QQ were eliminated.
I understand that AA was fav but mainly if no-one hit a set. What are the odds in AA's favour under these circumstances? Quite marginal, I think.
Best regards, Frank - "PHRANK."
I played an interesting hand yesterday. I had AA and was All-In against QQ & JJ. The set from a pair is 8.25/1 and therefore I think we are all equal at 2.75/1 the set on the flop and 1.65/1 on the board. The flop gave up a J and AA & QQ were eliminated.
I understand that AA was fav but mainly if no-one hit a set. What are the odds in AA's favour under these circumstances? Quite marginal, I think.
Best regards, Frank - "PHRANK."
Comments
Hi Phrank,
Pre-Flop, A-A v Q-Q v J-J, all-in pre-flop is......(rounded up or down to nearest whole %)
A-A 67%
Q-Q 18%
J-J 14%
This assumes an even distribution of suits.
It is 0.34% for a chop.
I think your point is this, really. An overpair is 80-20 (approx) v an underpair, but those odds change if there are TWO underpairs.
Take that a stage further, then.
It's a 6 handed Table on Sky Poker, & every PP from A-A down to 9-9 is out. The odds now are.....
A-A 37%
K-K 19%
Q-Q 14%
J-J 11%
T-T 10%
9-9 9%
And so comes the most oft-asked trivia question in poker.
It's the very FIRST HAND of the WSOP, & 8 players go all-in before you, & it's you now to act - & you have A-A. What do you do?
The clues are.....
1) Your hand is favourite to beat ANY other single hand.
2) Your hand is an UNDERDOG to the entire table, as a whole. A-A in that spot is only a 26% shot.
The clues are.....
1) Your hand is favourite to beat ANY other single hand.
2) Your hand is an UNDERDOG to the entire table, as a whole. A-A in that spot is only a 26% shot.
Wow this is an interesting one. I've heard it plenty of times before and always said to myself "Don't be silly, of course this is a snap fold."
But I didn't investigate the odds or consider it properly until now. 26% to 9x u first hand? I'm snap calling, high fiving the dealer, and 3/4 times, going home having spent $10,000 on 1 minute of actiion.
I think it's a real shame this is almost certainly never going to be anything more than a theoretical question lol.
Cash game is instacall
Rebuy tournament is instacall
Big buyin freezeout tournament is instafold.
I have no intention of risking everything preflop first hand when no better than 3 to 1 dog to win.But better spots will be available with much worse hands later
You are not alone Colin - I fold there, too. And I've been lambasted & mocked for nearly 10 years on every poker Forum in the UK for holding such a ridiculous view, too.
I don't get so much stick about it these days though, perhaps because most of those who stuck it in my eye have long gone busto.....;)
Seriously, it's a great question, & proves that poker is a game of opinions.
As it happens, I have never played the WSOP Main. And if I ever do, I'll savour every second. And I'll be at the Table a goodly while, too. I want value for my $10,000, &, realistically, I'm not gonna win it, so I'll trundle along quietly, enjoy myself, & more likely than not, make a minor Cash.
If i went out in this situation i would have the knowledge of going in a big fave and i think i can live with that.You cant wait until you have the hand locked down to get your chips in and this is as good a spot as any you will ever see.
1 Bubble of an important sat
2 Final table bubble
3 Vs TIKAY
dav
To your WSOP question.
Now myself, i have the view i would fold, however if the situation ever arose, could i fold, i guess i probably couldnt. Even though i know in my head im drawing to an Ace, im getting 8-1 on my money with AA.
However i remember my Dad told me a story about a hand he had on another site while he was watching me play a Scary Bounty Hunter MTT. I had AK with a raise and re-raise followed by shove infront of me. I made the call. As the hand was being delt he told me, ive folding KK in a very similar situation. He said There where 3 raises infront and 2 allins behind them, i just didnt feel comfortable against that many holdings knowing my stack wouldnt get any other raisers off their hands.
P.S. I lost the AK hand. lol