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miscalculating odds on draws
N1CK
Member Posts: 1,453
The most common mistake that even the best players make is working out the incorrect odds they have for a draw. Many players will look up and remember the odds of completing such draws like flushes and straights by the final river card. Whilst these figures may be correct, it will not be profitable to use these odds when you are calling a bet on the flop to try and complete your draw by the turn.
As already mentioned, many odds charts will give you the likelihood of completing a draw by the river, for example the chance of completing a flush draw after the turn and river have been dealt is roughly 2:1. However, if we are only using these odds to compare whether we should call a bet on the flop to try and make our hand by the turn, we are neglecting the fact that we may well face another bet on the turn to see the river.
When looking up the odds on draws, use the odds for the next card only when on the flop. Do not use the odds for completing your draw by the final card.
A bet on turn is not unlikely, and so our pot odds will be worsened by the fact that we will have to have called two sizeable bets instead of one on the flop. Therefore instead of using the odds to complete draws by the river, we should be using the odds to complete draws by the next card instead. Typically for flush draws, the odds of completion by the next card will be 4:1. So when on the flop:
- Odds of completing a flush by the turn: 4:1
- Odds of completing a flush by the river: 2:1