coping with variance???

donkeyplop

over the last 3/4 days i can't win a race!

im still only raising and folding pre so no limping.

none of my ak aq aj kq type hands are hitting.

should i properly nit up and wait for hands like aa kk qq jj etc??

or is that just too predictable?

DOHHHHHHH

Ive not had a winning session for ages plopper.

I think I figured out why this morning, when I realised I hadn't had a shave for 2 and a half weeks, which is the amount of time Ive gone breaking even/losing.

So now thats fixed I should be okay tonight......

If that doesn't work.....try playing tournys.......Its more frustrating when u get deep and then the "run bad" catches up with you, but at least you can manage your losses. 

I wouldn't reccomend trying to change a style on the cash tables that has previously worked for you though. That cud mess things up long term.

Try mtt's and have a shave wud be my advice. GL.

shaun09

i was playing last night, and eveyr time i had decent hand i would do a 3x or 4x raise, with a10+ pocket pairs and every time im getting beaten, flopped flush, but other guy had flopped higherflush, i have 1010 on 86 board after 5x raise he holds 86, i have kk they have aa ect ect, i lost alot last night, whilst i wasnt hittinh any cards (cash), but they say if you play every day take  few days break, Or just carry on through as it will even out. im not playing untill thursday now in the 8k BH

donkeyplop

ok i will try that dohhhhhh!

going to have a shave and a kitkat.....................

and shaun thats what seems to be happening to me!!!!!

i tried playing a dym for a change and ran my qq into kk lol.

beaneh

Just assume that anything that you've experienced so far is just a 1/10'000th of what 'could' happen worst case scenario wise.

take a break/move down/move up whatever you need to do. 

gl.

yb

lol at shaving to beat the variance!

Just think of every hand as an independent event so each time in the same situation you will still have the exact same odds of getting lucky/sucked out on etc.

Like if you lose 10 flips in a row you're still 50/50 to win the next one and vice versa.

shaun09

i know the feeling donkey, i seem to be making profit in tounrys (well only 2 tounrys) and then blow a bit by bit of it on cash lol. I either bust out befor the break, or make good money in the tounry, but cash was dreadfull,

this finished it of for me last night donkey, Dreadfull end to a dreadfull night

shaun09	Small blind		£0.15	£0.15	£8.73
katoch	Big blind		£0.30	£0.45	£5.51
	Your hole cards	K A
IRNBRU99P	Fold
swanseaoio	Raise		£0.60	£1.05	£11.85
westslay23	Call		£0.60	£1.65	£86.91
Trials	Fold
shaun09	Raise		£1.35	£3.00	£7.38
katoch	All-in		£5.51	£8.51	£0.00
swanseaoio	Call		£5.21	£13.72	£6.64
westslay23	Fold
shaun09	Call		£4.31	£18.03	£3.07
Flop
		8 5 9
shaun09	All-in		£3.07	£21.10	£0.00
swanseaoio	Call		£3.07	£24.17	£3.57
shaun09	Show	K A
katoch	Show	K J
swanseaoio	Show	4 K
Turn
		7
River
		3
swanseaoio	Win	Flush to the King	£22.97		£26.54

sorry if im hijacking topic i dont mean to

rawhand

In Response to coping with variance???:

over the last 3/4 days i can't win a race! im still only raising and folding pre so no limping. none of my ak aq aj kq type hands are hitting. should i properly nit up and wait for hands like aa kk qq jj etc?? or is that just too predictable?
Posted by donkeyplop

DITO m8ty i have tried changing the way i play but that was worse, so went back to DYM low stakes sitting tighter than a ducks Ar** won four in a row, not much but a win is a win good luck

rawhand (Rob)

pryce6

i'd say move to tournaments for a couple of days. 

Obv as a run bad expert I can advise you on keeping calm etc but don't change your game, just make sure you are making the right decisions and not letting the variance get to you or change what you are doing.

kirstii

I think a mistake a lot of people make is changing for the sake of changing and due to tilt(my main 1) like knowing you are getting it in with the best of it but losing then changing what is and has been a winning play in the hope of outplaying varience, been there, done that, donked the cash off.

walesboy

the advice I've been given for this has been:

If it is not tilting you - change from cash to tournies/dyms,etc

If tilting - take a complete break for as long as necessary.

On the first one at present

YOUNG_GUN

whos variance? does he leave wet towells for you to pick up? ;o)

BlackFish3

Doh pre-shave:

beaneh

Here is a graph of the same person. Over 10k hands. He is a winning player, but varaince plays a part 

http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_2.00_sd_80.00_nruns_15_nhands_10000_True_LRSbfz.png

One line he runs good one line he runs bad, both lines are the same player and the same sets of hands all in vs the same sets of hands etc tis just what variance they experience.

sikas

Just contact customer support and ask them to turn off your Doomswitch, always works for me

donkeyplop

lol i know someone here who called customer services as they had lost with aces 12/15 times lol.

not sure what cs were meant to do about that??????

pryce6

In Response to Re: coping with variance???:

lol i know someone here who called customer services as they had lost with aces 12/15 times lol. not sure what cs were meant to do about that??????
Posted by donkeyplop

I contact customer services when my aces hold.

Dudeskin8

I recently had this sort of spell in deepstacks, hadn't cashed in a month, but previously had a week or two where I couldn't stop cashing and winning multiple tournies. In the month I continued to play my same game but everytime I had the double up situation with AK vs A rag I never won, one of them holding and I'd cash/win but it never happened. Amazingly a few says ago i finished 3rd not great but even in that sum1 limps i shove AQ they call K10 and win frustrates me but I know I'm playing right and its just a matter of time before I win when in a dominating position/have the better hand  .

beaneh

dudeskin a month is nothing.

theneons

In Response to Re: coping with variance???:

i'd say move to tournaments for a couple of days.  Obv as a run bad expert I can advise you on keeping calm etc but don't change your game, just make sure you are making the right decisions and not letting the variance get to you or change what you are doing.
Posted by pryce6

+1

i made this decision for 3 reasons when i wasnt running goooot:

1. you stand to lose less is you get sucked out

2. you still can make decent profit if you do actually rungoot.

3. all of the above.

DOHHHHHHH

How can that picture STILL not have been approved