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100nl ja

zingzing Member Posts: 333
edited October 2010 in The Poker Clinic
this is basically me wanting to double check my math when reviewing the hand below, for those who can do the math to make it a +ev call the info you need is:

he has near all suited connectors in his calling 3bet range but unsooted i don't think so
any2 broadways are in his range too suited or not
i'm pretty sure he always raises a straight on the turn
he wouldn't raise AxXd on the flop
8d6d and Jd10d i think he sometimes will
there's no way in **** he vbets lighter than a straight here esp. w/ sizing
he can turn pairs into bluffs but not very often and not that likely here
if he's at the river here with air i think he bets it near all of the time given river

if i missed anything u need, say.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
---- Small blind   £0.50 £0.50 £242.20
zing Big blind   £1.00 £1.50 £154.00
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • K
     
---- Raise   £2.50 £4.00 £239.70
zing Raise   £10.00 £14.00 £144.00
---- Call   £8.00 £22.00 £231.70
Flop
   
  • 7
  • 9
  • Q
     
zing Bet   £14.00 £36.00 £130.00
---- Call   £14.00 £50.00 £217.70
Turn
   
  • 6
     
zing Bet   £30.00 £80.00 £100.00
---- Call   £30.00 £110.00 £187.70
River
   
  • 5
     
zing Check        
---- Bet   £82.50 £192.50 £105.20

Comments

  • shelskishelski Member Posts: 467
    edited October 2010
    Is this really a maths query ? Would someone be kind enough to direct me to some literature about +ev that makes a would-be call like this profitable. Seriously I'm just a noob. I just go on other stuff but would welcome the opportunity to understand. Oh my word these fluffy-headed loons that don't believe in belt wearing and have poor musical taste leave me befuddled ? Your betting on the turn i guess must be -ev. It's so weak (I'm drawing, i'm not sure, please bluff me on the river ! ) you don't find out . Ugggghhhh. What's going on. Maybe a genius such as Young Gun will prove valuable here. Help. 2prs have u crushed what is this about ? Are there really mathematical formulae that spare you from the inadiquacies of such play ? That Jake Cody and his ilk have a lot to answer for.But in fairness he probabaly will go into his plush coffin having never read Coleridge. Oh well life is strange but nonetheless fair.
  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited October 2010
    Surely if he never vbets less than a straight and will bet all his missed draws and occasionally turn some worse pairs into bluffs then its a call?
  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited October 2010
    In Response to Re: 100nl ja:
    Is this really a maths query ? Would someone be kind enough to direct me to some literature about +ev that makes a would-be call like this profitable. Seriously I'm just a noob. I just go on other stuff but would welcome the opportunity to understand. Oh my word these fluffy-headed loons that don't believe in belt wearing and have poor musical taste leave me befuddled ? Your betting on the turn i guess must be -ev. It's so weak (I'm drawing, i'm not sure, please bluff me on the river ! ) you don't find out . Ugggghhhh. What's going on. Maybe a genius such as Young Gun will prove valuable here. Help. 2prs have u crushed what is this about ? Are there really mathematical formulae that spare you from the inadiquacies of such play ? That Jake Cody and his ilk have a lot to answer for.But in fairness he probabaly will go into his plush coffin having never read Coleridge. Oh well life is strange but nonetheless fair.
    Posted by shelski
    Lol i would be no help i dont do the maths & +ev i just play and go on feel alot of the time

    Although fwiw i would not check call here, if i check i fold to decent bet which this is. if i plan to call would rather you put a stopper bet of £40 which can sieve out the bluff and if they go all in you know your beat
  • zingzing Member Posts: 333
    edited October 2010
    saying he turns pairs into draws is overestimating him tbh i've only seen him do it in smaller pots twice.

    he has AdXd or J10 as i saw it so i wana see if my analysis matches competent people in the no of combos he has vs the % i need to be right so i haven't fudged anything up.
  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE Member Posts: 2,188
    edited October 2010
    we need exactly 30% equity for breakeven i believe.
    if he only is shoving with 8x here for value then its a clear call if you think he bluffs alot at the river

    we lose to 88,89s,68s,78s which is 14 combos if he is raising 68dd on the flop. there are 15 combos alone of JT that he can get to the river with if you think he peels twice
  • zingzing Member Posts: 333
    edited October 2010
    aye i had 50/50 for combos for and against n misused JTs combos so it's actually not very close at all and i really should of been snapping

    fail
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