Looking for help from the successful mtt players here, but all opinions welcome.
I think my mtt has come on loads lately, having studied videos online - I'm confident in most situations, confident understanding of shove/calling ranges, in relation to stack sizes and player tendencies, also the bubble and laddering dynamics.
Im looking for advice on how the optimal strategy for all of the above, changes when playing against a weaker field. If I believe I have a significant edge on the field, how do I adapt?
For example.....
1) Turning down coin flips when mathematically I sould call?
Background - Just burst the bubble of a £10 mtt, I'm top 5 in chips, but it's close at the top end. The table I am on is very soft, the players are bad, often opening for 3/4xbb and folding to a re raise out of 15 big blind stacks. I'm one of the best players left in the tournament, can confidently say that.
I have 30k at 500/1k, and Im UTG with QKs. I open 2.3k or something like that, and the big blind has a perfect re-shoving sack with 15k, and of course, he jams. However he exposes pocket 4's before he shoves.....
Is there ever a situation where you would decline this kind of flip? even though I should call? If so - what %age of my stack does he have to be shoving, for me to decline this obviously +ev spot, given the nature of the tourny?
2) I call, and lose....I'm left with 14xbb at 500/1000, still mid-field in the tourny.
How should my shoving range and shoving stack size change playing against weaker players? I feel that their 3 betting range from late position steals is going to be very narrow. Does this mean opening and folding to a 3 bet is going to be a viable option? Rather than open jamming?
I have A8s on the button unopened, this is normally an easy open shove for me w/14 bigs, but again given the standard of the field, is raise folding a better option?
Should I stick to shoving 10xbb and less rather than 12+xbb's against weaker players?
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Comments
reasons are each situation is different, so in order to win you must play optimal poker by playing the correct moves. if you continue to not take them down like myself and getting in ahead then you must run bad
As for the 2 hands described, i fold KQ utg maybe even open fold depending after shove defo folding but considering they had 88 thats not really too bad a call
2nd one is insta-shove
2nd hand is an interesting one, some may argue differently but for me 14 BB's is pretty massive and I would most likely just fold pre as the money in the middle doesnt amount to a large enough percentage of my own stack to need it that badly, if I had closer to 10 BB's I would of course have a different mind set and shove but 14 is just on the cusp for me.
As for playing weaker players maybe you should bluff less early on etc but at this late stage I can't see how you can play it that differently if you have a less than 75-100 BB's stack.
KQs v 44 (the 4s are different suits to the K and Q) the KQs is 50.186/49.814 favourite.
KQs v 44 (with one of the 4s the same suit as the K and the Q) makes it 49.836/50.164
PokerStove is your friend, but either way the dead money already in the pot easily makes it a clear +ev call. For simplicity let's say its exactly 50/50, here's the maths;
50% of the time DOHHHHHHH's 12.7 BB call wins a 30BB pot, that's a profit of 17.3BB.
50% of the time he loses, that's a loss of 12.7BB.
50%x17.3BB + 50%x-12.7BB works out at an average profit of 2.3 BB per call, that's 2300 chips in this case. This call has a +ev of 2.3K chips, it doesn't matter whether it's Tom Dwan or the village idiot with the pocket 4s, you should still make the call.
However, when the stacks are all getting short, say the average is 20BB, tournament poker is no longer like cash poker, it becomes a more mathmatical game. At this stage making correct shove/3-bet reshove/fold decisions according to ranges and stack sizes while taking into account bubbles and pay jumps is pretty much unexploitable, it will give you an edge over anybody who isn't playing optimally. So in the late stages of a tournament I think you should always be playing the same game no matter who's at at your table.