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is it really a 50\50 race
thejudge10
Member Posts: 465
When ace king against a pocket pair,what are the correct odds for the A K to win,on a 6 max table,when its 1 on 1.
could you please explain the mathematics in your answer.
The way i see it the A K has 6 outs,there are 40 cards left in the deck in wich 3 are dead cards.
so 37 divided by 6 gives you a 1\6 chance to hit your out,which eqautes to about16%,now u have 5 cards to hit,so threfore is it 5 x 16, which would give 80%,surely this cant
or do we count as such.
only count the cards in our hand,so could poss be
50 cards to come - your outs then cards after the river =45 - 6
would rouhgly eqaute to 45\50 x 39\45 which roughly is .9 x .8 =.72 which means 28% for the ACE KING to win.
The reason im asking this is mid to late on in a tourny when in a late position,if i jamm with a pocket pair,what would be my odds,if i ran into AK,
could you please explain the mathematics in your answer.
The way i see it the A K has 6 outs,there are 40 cards left in the deck in wich 3 are dead cards.
so 37 divided by 6 gives you a 1\6 chance to hit your out,which eqautes to about16%,now u have 5 cards to hit,so threfore is it 5 x 16, which would give 80%,surely this cant
or do we count as such.
only count the cards in our hand,so could poss be
50 cards to come - your outs then cards after the river =45 - 6
would rouhgly eqaute to 45\50 x 39\45 which roughly is .9 x .8 =.72 which means 28% for the ACE KING to win.
The reason im asking this is mid to late on in a tourny when in a late position,if i jamm with a pocket pair,what would be my odds,if i ran into AK,
Comments
dont think it showed my calculations
Firstly though, around 48/52 in favour of the pp is correct, preflop- QQ/JJ/TT I think are slightly bigger favourites due to stealing straight possibilities, and less chance of counterfeiting- 22 is of course the lowest odds because of the amount of 2 pair possibilities.
When you work out the odds of a 1v1 hand, the only cards you take into account are yours and your opponents- the other cards are all unknown. So it's taken from 48 cards, of which 6 cards are good.
Odds of hitting are;
6/48*42/47*41/46*40/45*39/44 which is 0.0784, or 7.8%. That's the odds of the first card hitting, and the other 4 not. Multiply that by 5 (so you're working out odds of hitting on each street) and you get 39.2%. That's solely the odds of hitting your pair card. This doesn't take into account all the 2 pair, trips, house, quads, straight, flush combos, nor does it take into account the possibility of hitting, but your opponent also hitting.
Because of all that, it's much easier to simply accept that overcards against a pp is *roughly* 50/50, with a slight edge to the pp. There might be an easier way to work it out (OTHER than pokerstove :P) but I certainly don't know it- I think working out every variable would be quite laborious, much easier to memorise the basic odds and accept them.