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explain this call? right to call?

waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,072
edited February 2011 in The Poker Clinic
this is from tonights 2k bounty hunter, we are on the final table with 3 left, the villain makes a standard raise to which i shove, now i'm not one to moan but this call and beat cost me a nice ladder up and a good chance of taking down the tourney, personally i would be laying down QJ to the shove but would that be too tight of me and is his call right? i had been playing a tight game so the villain had no reason to think i was shoving with junk, just want to know how many of you would have called in his spot, am i just too much of a nit to think he should have layed his hand down?
i'm keen to know as i have been folding these kind of hands in the villains spot and wonder if i have been too tight
 Small blind  6000.00 6000.00 184796.50
waller02 Big blind  12000.00 18000.00 153819.50
  Your hole cards
  • 9
  • A
     
_sqwuiza_ Fold     
 Raise  30000.00 48000.00 154796.50
waller02 All-in  153819.50 201819.50 0.00
 Call  129819.50 331639.00 24977.00
 Show
  • Q
  • J
   
waller02 Show
  • 9
  • A
   
Flop
   
  • Q
  • Q
  • 9
     
Turn
   
  • J
     
River
   
  • 5
     
 Win Full House, Queens and Jacks 331639.00  356616.00

Comments

  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ Member Posts: 6,804
    edited February 2011
    Well done on yet another deep run Waller. It's good to know my crystal ball is still in full working order!

    I think his call is standard, raise/folding would have been worse.

    You two are playing for only 12.5BB effective stacks (ie your stack size). Any competent player will only raise 2.5BB here if he's fully prepared to call a shove. He has to put in 130K to win a 202K pot, take your bounty and get HU to win the tournament, that's around 1.55/1, good odds if he has 2 live cards. If your range is fairly tight, say any ace, any pair and any 2 broadway cards he has 41.6% equity in the pot, enough to call. Here's the maths;

    41.6% of the time he wins 202K chips 41.6% x 202,000 = +84,032
    58.4% of the time he loses 130K chips 58.4% x -130,000 = -75,920

    +84,032 - 75,920 = +8,112

    So on average a call will make a profit of 8,112 chips and 41.6% of the value of your bounty in cash. It's a good call. If he folds he makes a loss of 30,000 chips and gets 0% of your bounty. I'm sure it's now clear why calling is far preferable to folding.

    If you told him your hole cards before he made his decision then it becomes even more profitable to call, his equity against your actual cards was 43.3%.
  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop Member Posts: 3,795
    edited February 2011
    Nice numbers Gary!

    You should of applied for the job on countdown when Carol Vorderman left ;)


  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8 Member Posts: 6,228
    edited February 2011
    In villains spot I'd make a smaller raise, no need for 3x at this level. Then when you shove I'd fold but tbh he's probably better open shoving.
  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ Member Posts: 6,804
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: explain this call? right to call?:
    Nice numbers Gary! You should of applied for the job on countdown when Carol Vorderman left ;)
    Posted by donkeyplop
    I considered it, but I didn't think I'd look as good as her in the outfits.

    FWIW I shove pre if I'm the villain and let Waller know he has to put his tournament life on the line to call. As played I shove too if I'm Waller, with an ace I'm prepared to get my stack in the middle and I suppose it's possible you might get an occasional fold from a weak opponent.
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,072
    edited February 2011
    cheers for the input guys, great answer gary and it def does explain his call, with the added value of my bounty on top of that i suppose the call was right, still not a call i would have made but i am a nit after all!
    i also agree if the villain was never folding then he should have open shoved.
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