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Weekend footy betting (12th/13th)
silentbob
Member Posts: 2,137
For once luck was on my side last weekend with my winner on Sunday but unfortunately the bookies have taken it all back with a little interest 
Hopefully the tide will turn again this weekend & I can get back to winning ways.
Hopefully the tide will turn again this weekend & I can get back to winning ways.Two bets to begin with for me for tomorrow & I've decided to make a couple of changes.
Main Acca:
QPR to beat Palace (H) @ 4/9
Brighton to beat Tranmere (H) @ 2/5
Leyton Orient to beat Oldham (H) @ 8/11
Dundee to beat Queen of the South (H) @ 4/7
Livingston to beat Peterhead (H) @ 3/10
These 5 pay a tasty 6/1 so I've chucked a tenner at it as usual.
I've deliberately avoided going for straight wins in my main acca for a while in the hope that I might find better value elsewhere whilst picking up a few winners. Sadly this hasn't been the case so I've gone back to basics for now.
QPR should be as close to a home banker as you'll get this weekend. Despite losing 2-0 at Millwall in midweek they're still top of the division 7 points clear of 2nd placed Swansea. They've been particularly strong at Loftus Road too losing only once in 18 games there so far. That midweek defeat aside Rangers have actually been in very good form (as you'd probably expect from a team who are top of the league) having previously been unbeaten in 10. In contrast Palace are at the wrong end of the table & as I've pointed out before this is largely down to their travel sickness. In 18 attempts so far they've managed a single win on the road whilst losing 14. They'll be in buoyant mood coming into this game having beaten promotion chasing Cardiff at Selhurst in midweek but I really can't see them getting any joy in West London.
Brighton are another side who are top of their division & again they've been super strong at home. In 16 league games at the Withdean so far they've yet to lose. In fact only 4 sides have managed to come away from there with anything & the last side to do so was Charlton back in December. They're back in form & have won their last 3 straight & have only lost once in their last 9 home & away in the league. Tranmere are another side struggling at the wrong end of the table & they won't be relishing their long trip South. To say they're in poor form at the moment would be a bit of an understatement as they're winless in their last 6, of which they've lost 4. Again, it's a small price on offer for a home win here but as part of an acca I don't think you can ignore it.
I tried really hard to talk myself out of backing Leyton Orient here but I couldn't. My biggest worry with them is that they've been in outstanding form since the beginning of November & surely it's gonna end sooner or later, right? Even still, the fact that they're unbeaten in 12 & have won their last 2 has persuaded me to keep faith with them here too. They face an Oldham side who have pretty much blown any chance they had of grabbing a play off spot in the last 6 weeks. Since the beginning of February the Latics have won just once in 9 & have lost 5 of their last 6 home & away. They've failed to score in their last 4 on the road too & Russell Slade's side should see them off in East London.
Had Dundee not been deducted 25 points they would lead the Scottish first division by 5 points. As it is they're in 7th spot but in no real danger of being relegated unless they collapse in a major way. They haven't lost a league game since the end of September & haven't lost at home all season. Tomorrow they host a Queen of the South side who are in poor form at the moment. They've only won once in their last 8 & have lost 3 of their last 5. They've already met Dundee twice this season & lost both of them & I fully expect that to become 3 tomorrow.
Just like Dundee, Livingston are THE team to back in the 2nd division this season, particularly when they're at home. In 13 games on their own patch so far they've yet to lose & have only drawn two as well, with the last of those draws coming way back in September. They've won their last 4 straight home & away & have won the last 9 at home. This weekend they entertain Peterhead who are rock bottom of the division without a single win on the road in 14 attempts so far. This will be Peterhead's 2nd visit to Livingston this season & it should also be their 2nd defeat there too.
Massive Long Shot Acca:
Bolton to beat Birmingham (A) @ 6/4
Man Utd to beat Arsenal (H) @ evens
Burnley to beat Millwall (H) @ 10/11
Forest to beat Doncaster (H) @ 8/13
Leeds/Ipswich - Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
Peterborough to beat Carlisle (H) @ 8/11
Chesterfield to beat Crewe (A) @ 6/4
Port Vale to beat Oxford (H) @ 11/10
Torquay/Shrewsbury - Both to Score @ 5/6
Raith to beat Partick (H) @ 5/6
These 10 potentially pay a monster 782/1 so only £1.40 staked for a possible return of nearly £1100!
Again, I've decided to make a slight change to my long shot too. Rather than picking 5 or 6 games that are odds against (yet have a chance on paper) I thought I'd go for shorter odds but a few more of them. It's still risky but that's why it's only really small stakes. These 10 have been chosen through a mixture of form & gut feelings.
Bolton are safe in the top flight for another season & whilst they've still got a chance of qualifying for Europe via the league they know the cup is probably their best chance. I doubt this game will be a classic but they're playing well & I fully expect Owen Coyle to put out a full strength side at St Andrews. In contrast Birmingham have already qualified for European competition next year thanks to their Carling cup win a couple of weeks ago. Right now though not only have they got more pressing concerns with retaining their top flight status but they've got massive injury problems too so it's gonna be a weakened side out there tomorrow through no choice of their own.
United are probably playing Arsenal at the right time now. They've still got a few injury problems of their own but there's more at stake here than a semi final spot. Getting the win at OT is likely to give them a psychological boost in their fight for the league title with Arsenal too. Arsenal were totally outplayed in Spain in midweek & it remains to be seen how they'll react to that. They're relying on Almunia again as he's their only fit keeper & it looks as though they'll be missing Fabregas again too. There's no doubt they've got plenty of talent in their squad but I think this game has come at the wrong time for them.
Millwall had a fantastic result in midweek beating league leaders QPR at home but it's a different story on their travels. They've only 3 wins from 18 this season & they go to Turf Moor where Burnley don't lose too many. Burnley have won their last 3 home & away & they haven't lost at home since December. They'll be made to work for the points but I think they'll take them.
Forest have gone off the rails a little bit recently & are winless in their last 5 but they'll see this game as the perfect way to reignite their promotion push. Hull became the first side to take maximum points from the City Ground this season last weekend but I don't expect to see a repeat this time. Donny are shipping goals at an alarming rate particularly on the road. They've only won 4 from 18 on their travels so far & have the worst defensive away record in the division having conceded 41 goals. Last weekend saw them ship 5 at Leeds so it doesn't look good for them.
I was gonna back Leeds for the win at home to Ipswich but decided to take what I think is a safer option instead in backing the overs market. Ipswich showed last weekend that they're capable of springing a minor surprise on the road when they won at Cardiff. They've got goals in them particularly if Jimmy Bullard is passed fit to play. Likewise Leeds can also score & they're averaging nearly 2 goals per game this season. Their weakness though is their backline & they have the joint worst home defensive record in the league with 31 conceded in 18 at Elland Road (only bottom side Preston have conceded as many at home).
Unfortunately for us punters Darren Ferguson seems to have fixed Peterborough's leaky defence so backing both sides to score is no longer an automatic pick for accumulators. They've won 5 of their last 6 & have kept a clean sheet in their last 3. Carlisle gave leaders Brighton a scare at the Withdean last weekend & ended up losing 4-3 in the end so they've got goals in them. However they've lost their fair share on the road & a trip to Cambridgeshire has come at the wrong time as Peterborough are bang in form.
Chesterfield are another side in form right now & the only reason I can think they're this big a price is because they're the visiting team. They've won 5 & lost 1 of their last 6 & have won the last 3 straight scoring 9 goals in the process. They go to a Crewe side who are really out of form at the moment. They've only won 1 of their last 8 (at home to struggling Burton) & 6 of the other 7 have ended in defeat. It might be worth including this game in a both to score acca as they are capable of scoring themselves but they're leaking a lot more goals than they're scoring right now.
Port Vale seem to have found their feet again after a bad run over Christmas & new year that threatened to derail their promotion push. They're unbeaten in their last 3 (winning 2) & have only lost once in their last 8. Oxford had been looking a decent shout for a play off push themselves but they've hit bad form at the wrong time. They're still not far off the play off spots but they come into this game on the back of 3 straight defeats & they won't fancy a trip to a resurgent Vale side.
Both Torquay & Shrewsbury like to score goals & the last 3 meetings have seen them both score at least once each. Torquay have scored in their last 13 in the league at Plainmoor whilst only 2nd placed Bury have kept a clean sheet against Shrewsbury in their last 7 on the road.
As I touched upon earlier, technically Dundee should be leading the Scottish 1st division but thanks to their 15 point deduction Raith are in pole position. However as they've gained more points than anyone else they clearly deserve to be there & this weekend should see them at least maintain their lead when they host a Partick side who don't travel well. In 12 attempts so far Partick have only managed 1 win on the road. Partick have already visited Stark's Park once this season & came away on the wrong end of a 4-0 defeat on that occasion. Raith come into this game with 4 wins in their last 6 & their 2 defeats in that sequence both came against Dundee.
Good luck if you're having a go this weekend. I may add one or two more tomorrow & as ever I'll post them up here if I do.
Jay
Comments
Saturdays selections, permed as 7 timers, 8 timers and an accumulator.
Bit nervous about QPR now as I noticed silentbob has backed them ;0)
Peterborough v Carlisle
Crewe v Chesterfield
Torquay v Shrewsbury
£5 acca pays £144.21
QPR -1 against Crystal Palace
Hull and Coventry both to score
Burnley to beat Millwall or ( Man utd to beat Arsenal )
£1 on a ten team accumulator returns £125 - although livingston has been postponed so that match is void!
N Forest
Burnley
QPR
Leeds
Swansea
Brighton
Peterborough
Huddersfield
Livingston
Cardiff
Next is a long shot at over 320/1 so also stuck a quid on!
Charlton
Huddersfield
Bournemouth - Southampton - Draw
Man united - Arsenal - Draw
QPR
Portsmouth
Swansea
finally this one at 9/1 - put £4 on
Leeds - Ipswich - Over 2.5 goals
York
QPR
Brighton
Peterborough - Carlise - C Mackail-Smith to score anytime
good luck to everyone having a bet this weekend!
Forrest
Qpr
Leyton Orient
Peterborugh
York
All strong fancies, all at home, all playing well, all playing poor teams
and
Man United
Qpr
Brighton
Chesterfield
Crawley
Raith
Livingston
Arbroath
Not Much thoguht itno this bet every team leads there league (except crawly but they have around 100 games in ahdn and will be top).
And whats your team up to?! poor result today, got my team away next saturday ;-)
Our game was awful today, we are hopeless at the minute. Gary Johnson is deffo the man to turn it around though.
Next sat, so your team is Bradford then?(off the top of my head) I went to that game last season when it was the anniversary of the Valley Parade fire. It was a shame that game was spoilt by some of the mindless Bradford fans who taunted us after the game. Especially as most of us donated money before the game.
Good to see that Bradford came down hard on it though and identified most of the trouble makers.
We don't have a chance next week. Most of our players don't have any bottle.
I wouldn't rule out a Northampton win on Saturday, i know your out of form but whenever a team goes on a run of defeats, were usually the one to end it..hope not though!
I won't be going on sat, we are even worse away from home. Il take a 0-0 now.