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Midweek footy betting (15th/16th)
silentbob
Member Posts: 2,137
Once again the weekend showed me the good & the bad of late goals. A late goal apiece for Dundee & Leyton Orient saw me pick up a win on Saturday but a last minute equaliser for NEC saw my bet crash & burn yesterday afternoon.
However, with a few games this midweek (mostly Tuesday night) there's chances to win it all back with a bit of interest. For tomorrow night I've gone with 2 bets.
Main Acca:
Burnley to beat Coventry (H) @ 4/6
Peterborough to score 2+ @ evens
Accrington to beat Burton (H) @ evens
Dunfermline to beat Stirling (A) @ 4/9
These 4 pay a very tempting 17/2 so it's the usual tenner spent here
By their own admission Burnley never really got going at home to Millwall on Saturday, but even being below par I was a little surprised that they not only lost but lost so heavily. They're 4 points outside of the play offs & this game is one of the two that they have in hand over the sides above them. Despite Saturday's defeat they are playing well at the moment & that was their first defeat in 7. They have been strong a Turf Moor as well winning 10 & drawing 3 of the 17 played there. Only Swansea & QPR have won more at home this term (11 & 13 respectively) but they've also played more at home as well. Coventry parted company with Aidy Boothroyd today & in the modern game it's easy to see why. Just 1 win in their last 16 in the league has seen them slide dangerously close to the trap door into league 1 but I can't see an immediate change of fortunes here. They have drawn their last 2 on the road at Doncaster & Leicester but the Clarets know that maximum points here are a must if they're to have a chance of getting into the play off spots.
Peterborough are in great form at the moment having won 6 & drawn 1 in their last 7 games. They're still scoring goals for fun but crucially they appear to have plugged their leaky backline as they haven't conceded in their last 4 (scoring 15 themselves!). In all honesty I think they'll probably win at Hillsborough tomorrow night but I decided to go with a safer option for my main acca here as Wednesday are the sort of side who'll grab a result when you least expect it. Wednesday's current form (or rather lack of it) has seen them slip from promotion contenders to looking over their shoulders at the drop. They've only won twice in the league since the turn of the year & both of those have come on the road. They lost at home to Notts Co on Saturday who don't usually travel too well themselves & conceded 4 against bottom side Plymouth a couple of weeks back in a 4-2 defeat. As I said, I think it's highly likely that Peterborough will take the points here but Wednesday are capable of grabbing a result when you least expect.
I'm surprised that Accrington are not a shorter price than this. They've been strong at home all season with only 3 defeats in 15 so far (8 wins) & are generally in good form overall at the minute. They lost away at promotion chasing Gillingham on Saturday but that was only their 3rd defeat in the league in 2011 & the other 2 were also against promotion chasing sides (Rotherham away & Shrewsbury at home). Saturdays defeat was their first in 6 & they've won their last 3 at home. Burton are currently 3rd from bottom in the league & despite the fact they have 5 games in hand over the sides around them they'll be relying on getting results at home to pull them clear of any relegation worries. Their 3-2 win at Northampton at the beginning of the month was only their 2nd win on the road from 16 all season. They managed a point at rock bottom Stockport on Saturday in bore draw & I can't see them getting any joy from Accrington.
Dunfermline travel to bottom side Stirling & it's not too often you get a price this short on a visiting side. Stirling have won once at home all season & have picked up just 3 points from their last 14 home & away (all draws). Dunfermline have been a little indifferent themselves lately with 2 wins & 3 draws in their last 6 although they have won their last 2 on the road. They also have a fantastic record in this fixture in the last few years with only one defeat in the last 7 meetings & they've won the last 5. They've met twice so far this term with Dunfermline winning 3-0 at home in October & 5-1 away back in August.
Long Shot Acca:
Bayern/Inter - Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11
Man Utd/Marseille - Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11
Scunthorpe/Preston - Both to score @ 4/6
Ipswich/Watford - Both to score @ 4/6
Huddersfield to beat Brentford (A) @ 13/8
Peterborough to beat Sheff Weds (A) @ 13/8
Crewe/Southend - Both to score @ 4/6
These 7 potentially pay a massive 104/1 so only a quid at stake here.
Bayern take a 1-0 lead into this game & will want to preserve their away goal advantage. I've no doubt that they'll try & grab another goal themselves to kill off the tie but will be more concerned with keeping Inter at bay & the longer they manage that, the more likely they won't push too far forward themselves. They've met 5 times in recent times & none of those games produced more than 2 goals either.
United don't have the luxury of having an away goal to defend so will have to score themselves. They don't concede too many at OT & I fancy that once they get a goal then their priority will be to keep a clean sheet & try to sneak a 2nd on the counter as they do so well.
I wouldn't want to try & call a winner at Glanford Park but both sides are scoring at the moment. These two sides shared 5 goals between them at Deepdale back in October & 9 goals in the two meetings last season. Both sides will be going for the win which should lead to an open game & with 2 sides who have conceded nearly 130 goals in the league between them there should be a few more here.
Ipswich & Watford tend to produce entertaining games when they meet & only once in the last 6 meetings has either side failed to score (in fact it was a 0-0!). Watford have found their scoring boots again of late but they're always vulnerable to conceding & with Jimmy Bullard & Keiron Dyer in the middle for Ipswich they've got routes to goal themselves.
Huddersfield are in really good form of late & they've even started picking up wins on the road against the sides they should be beating which has been enough to push them into the 2nd automatic promotion spot. They travel to a Brentford side who are inconsistent at best but they're always capable of getting a result. However given the fact that Huddersfield haven't been beaten in the league since the end of December this price is way too big to ignore.
Likewise Peterborough. They come into this game on the back of 6 wins & a draw & as I touched upon earlier they seem to have fixed their leaky defence. They beat Wednesday 5-3 at London Road at the beginning of February & considering they're scoring for fun at the moment they should take the points in Yorkshire too. The only reason I haven't included this in my main bet is simply because Wednesday are capable of springing a result when you least expect it.
Crewe & Southend are two sides who concede almost as many as they score & between them they've scored 114 league goals so far. Southend have managed only one clean sheet in their last 15 (against Barnet) whilst Crewe are just as bad with only one clean sheet in their last 13 (against league leaders Chesterfield on Saturday)
Good luck if you're having a go
Jay
Comments
Was going to have a £20 trebble but dont fancy that much tonight so had a few over 2.5 bets and both teams to score
achill
ps. i've just looked at this and realised i mean't to put macclesfield/lincoln down for over 2.5, obviously wasn't concentrating when putting bet on.
Well lets hope it turns out for the best.
edit haha if only i had put all the other bets on wrong for tonight.
Now I just have to hope he doesn't come on so the bet won't stand.
It's a freeroll so it's just a bit of fun