Did I have to play this??

Unknown

Getting towards the bubble in last nights Orfordable (went out 14th) blinds were cranking up. Guy who pushed all in 1st had been playing quite tight, so I pretty much knew he had a top hand (in fact even typed in chat box "wish me luck!"). Question is should I have laid this down in order to get to cash? Blinds were getting pretty big so I had to make a move soon........

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
dodgydaz	Small blind		1000.00	1000.00	24455.00
weemallet	Big blind		2000.00	3000.00	14357.50
	Your hole cards	Q Q
goldon	Fold
chubby48uk	All-in		33310.00	36310.00	0.00
Barlicker	Fold
micky6chin	Fold
DAIBOOT	Fold
dodgydaz	All-in		24455.00	60765.00	0.00
weemallet	Fold
Flop
		2 5 8
Turn
		7
River
		K
dodgydaz	Show	Q Q
chubby48uk	Show	K K
chubby48uk	Win	Three Kings	60765.00		60765.00

Dudeskin8

You have 12 BB's at the start of this hand, if it was 10-handed still you might have had a small chance of getting to cash, but tbh QQ is so massive you can't fold. You were unlucky to see and overapir as your losing to 2 starting hands. 3rd strongest hand, you wouldn't be seeing better than that any time soon.

Also I played one of these a week ago had same situation, big stack min-raised, I pushed with JJ he had Aces, went out on Bubble even worse.

elsadog

AA KK QQ AKs .......shove your money in. You will lose sometimes but you will win overall. Every hand is a potential winner and loser so get your money in with the monsters.

acebarry10

Hi

I think you answered your own question when you said the other player had been playing quite tight, and suddenly goes all in should have set your alarm bells ringing, I dont think it is the case of folding into the money, its more of preseving your chips and waiting for a better opening.

That being said doesnt mean you may not have gone out in a better position, but if you still had chips left, you can still win it.

dodgydaz

That was exactly my thinking Barry....

On reflection I think its a fold, but having played for 3 and half hours and being completely card dead (best starting hand to this point 77) i thought now or never!

Having got through the blinds i think prob fold it try and pinch a few blinds and wait for a better spot.

PS. I hate calling all ins (unless v loose player) and very rarely do even with QQ
PPS. I cant log in to the forum gggrrrrr

elsadog

I would call this every time with QQ. Pre-bubble players make moves knowing that most will fold. On this occassion you were unlucky to walk into KK but he could have played that move with a lot less. I think you have to decide whether you want to win tournaments or cash. A double-up here would make you very strong for the finish and potentially a much higher finishing position. I think you played it right, negative thoughts will prevent you from doing the same next time around and you will lose out in the long run.

dodgydaz

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

I would call this every time with QQ. Pre-bubble players make moves knowing that most will fold. On this occassion you were unlucky to walk into KK but he could have played that move with a lot less. I think you have to decide whether you want to win tournaments or cash. A double-up here would make you very strong for the finish and potentially a much higher finishing position. I think you played it right, negative thoughts will prevent you from doing the same next time around and you will lose out in the long run.
Posted by elsadog

i also got a lot of greif at the table for this one early doors........ my pot odds were massive and i thought it was worth the gamble.... definately loose but is it really that bad??

dodgydaz	Small blind		30.00	30.00	5155.00
GETIN	Big blind		60.00	90.00	3620.00
	Your hole cards	J 10
meemee	Fold
scrumdown	Call		60.00	150.00	2645.00
philh888	Fold
Barlicker	Fold
galvo68	Call		60.00	210.00	3787.50
no1ocsfan	Call		60.00	270.00	5370.00
g0rd0n123	Call		60.00	330.00	11855.00
pod1	Call		60.00	390.00	6575.00
dodgydaz	Call		30.00	420.00	5125.00
GETIN	Check
Flop
		K 8 Q
dodgydaz	Check
GETIN	Bet		420.00	840.00	3200.00
scrumdown	Fold
galvo68	Raise		840.00	1680.00	2947.50
no1ocsfan	Call		840.00	2520.00	4530.00
g0rd0n123	Fold
pod1	Fold
dodgydaz	Call		840.00	3360.00	4285.00
GETIN	All-in		3200.00	6560.00	0.00
galvo68	All-in		2947.50	9507.50	0.00
no1ocsfan	Call		2947.50	12455.00	1582.50
dodgydaz	Call		2947.50	15402.50	1337.50
Turn
		10
dodgydaz	All-in		1337.50	16740.00	0.00
no1ocsfan	All-in		1582.50	18322.50	0.00
River
		A
dodgydaz	Show	J 10
GETIN	Muck	2 K
galvo68	Show	A K
no1ocsfan	Muck	10 K
no1ocsfan	Win	Two Pairs, Kings and 10s	245.00		245.00
dodgydaz	Win	Straight to the Ace	18077.50		18077.50

elsadog

JTs is as strong as any hand there. AKos is highly over rated. You needed to make a move some time soon and JTs is fine. There probably wouldn't have been any comments if you'd played an A rag and hit. High suited connectors are stronger than a lot of players think. Ignore the whingers and pat yourself on the back.

dodgydaz

thanks Elsa, I would make that play everytime and twice on Sundays lol. Fair play I wont hit sometimes and bust out, but if I got a chance to quad up on a 35-40% shot then Im there!!

acebarry10

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

JTs is as strong as any hand there. AKos is highly over rated. You needed to make a move some time soon and JTs is fine. There probably wouldn't have been any comments if you'd played an A rag and hit. High suited connectors are stronger than a lot of players think. Ignore the whingers and pat yourself on the back.
Posted by elsadog

Hi Elsa

You say JT sooted is as strong as any hand there? even though the AK off is best part of 60% fav to win the hand? though the pot odds were there, he was 40% dog for the hand meaning he is going to lose that pot 2 times out of three and therfore imo a losing play over time and had the best part of 86 BB,s so was in no danger.

elsadog

I agree with you Barry because what you say is right,but..........

AK is 61% favourite pre-flop. However post flop that drops to 40% and on the turn AK is only 15% favourite. You can analyse that further with the KT player but I see no point in odds analysis of a hand after the fact. You can't determine the odds before the fact as you don't know what the other players hold. You can make an educated guess at your opponents cards to decide whether to continue in a hand but you won't know the odds. What needs to be considered when deciding whether to continue is far more complex than that. The damage likely to your stack should you continue, your stack relative to the other players not just the blinds. The number of outs you have. The recent table history. What point in the tournament is this occuring. AND.........do you feel lucky?

Don't underestimate the last one as it can be the most powerful tool you have in deciding whether to continue.

dodgydaz

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

I agree with you Barry because what you say is right,but.......... AK is 61% favourite pre-flop. However post flop that drops to 40% and on the turn AK is only 15% favourite. You can analyse that further with the KT player but I see no point in odds analysis of a hand after the fact. You can't determine the odds before the fact as you don't know what the other players hold. You can make an educated guess at your opponents cards to decide whether to continue in a hand but you won't know the odds. What needs to be considered when deciding whether to continue is far more complex than that. The damage likely to your stack should you continue, your stack relative to the other players not just the blinds. The number of outs you have. The recent table history. What point in the tournament is this occuring. AND.........do you feel lucky? Don't underestimate the last one as it can be the most powerful tool you have in deciding whether to continue.
Posted by elsadog

To be honest Elsa I wasnt that bothered about what they held, if I hit an Ace or Nine then I had the nuts and was adding 14k to my stack if i didnt i was out. Definately a gamble as I knew I wasnt a favourite, but I thought the reward was worth the risk...........

dodgydaz

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

I agree with you Barry because what you say is right,but.......... AK is 61% favourite pre-flop. However post flop that drops to 40% and on the turn AK is only 15% favourite. You can analyse that further with the KT player but I see no point in odds analysis of a hand after the fact. You can't determine the odds before the fact as you don't know what the other players hold. You can make an educated guess at your opponents cards to decide whether to continue in a hand but you won't know the odds. What needs to be considered when deciding whether to continue is far more complex than that. The damage likely to your stack should you continue, your stack relative to the other players not just the blinds. The number of outs you have. The recent table history. What point in the tournament is this occuring. AND.........do you feel lucky? Don't underestimate the last one as it can be the most powerful tool you have in deciding whether to continue.
Posted by elsadog

To be honest Elsa I wasnt that bothered about what they held, if I hit an Ace or Nine then I had the nuts and was adding 14k to my stack if i didnt i was out. Definately a gamble as I knew I wasnt a favourite, but I thought the reward was worth the risk...........

elsadog

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this?? : To be honest Elsa I wasnt that bothered about what they held, if I hit an Ace or Nine then I had the nuts and was adding 14k to my stack if i didnt i was out. Definately a gamble as I knew I wasnt a favourite, but I thought the reward was worth the risk...........
Posted by dodgydaz

My point exactly. at that point if you consider it time to make a move you have to take your opportunities. If it means you go out then so be it. If that cripples your roll then your playing far too higher stakes. If not then an educated gamble is the way to the line.

This is not everyones way I know that, most prefer to wait for rock solid chances but when and if they come the rewards are often not so great. If I am short stacked the hand I want is one with 3 or 4 players all with good hands against my 89 suited or similar. Yes I will lose a high percentage but the rewards on the ones I win make up for it IMO.

dodgydaz

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this?? : My point exactly. at that point if you consider it time to make a move you have to take your opportunities. If it means you go out then so be it. If that cripples your roll then your playing far too higher stakes. If not then an educated gamble is the way to the line. This is not everyones way I know that, most prefer to wait for rock solid chances but when and if they come the rewards are often not so great. If I am short stacked the hand I want is one with 3 or 4 players all with good hands against my 89 suited or similar. Yes I will lose a high percentage but the rewards on the ones I win make up for it IMO.
Posted by elsadog

Horses for courses then (or greyhounds if your bennydip). I guess a lot depends on what kind of player you are and if you have the gamble in you. Having played a number of deepies and not getting any cards it coulda been a hundred hands before i had another opportunity like that and id prob of had less chips to work with hence the play.

dodgydaz

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this??:

In Response to Re: Did I have to play this?? : My point exactly. at that point if you consider it time to make a move you have to take your opportunities. If it means you go out then so be it. If that cripples your roll then your playing far too higher stakes. If not then an educated gamble is the way to the line. This is not everyones way I know that, most prefer to wait for rock solid chances but when and if they come the rewards are often not so great. If I am short stacked the hand I want is one with 3 or 4 players all with good hands against my 89 suited or similar. Yes I will lose a high percentage but the rewards on the ones I win make up for it IMO.
Posted by elsadog

Horses for courses then (or greyhounds if your bennydip). I guess a lot depends on what kind of player you are and if you have the gamble in you. Having played a number of deepies and not getting any cards it coulda been a hundred hands before i had another opportunity like that and id prob of had less chips to work with hence the play.