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Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it

Luke_JonesLuke_Jones Member Posts: 33
edited May 2011 in The Poker Clinic
  i have 10 spades 9 dimonds
flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs
2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand
one player has Q 8
the other has k 10 of hearts
...there is £40 in the middle
and they have both pushed £230 each
what would u do
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  • iBLUFFiBLUFF Member Posts: 1,244
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
      i have 10 spades 9 dimonds flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs 2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand one player has Q 8 the other has k 10 of hearts ... there is £40 in the middle and they have both pushed £230 each what would u do
    Posted by Luke_Jones
    i would fold but surely the hand would be void ? :)
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  • DrSharpDrSharp Member Posts: 1,213
    edited May 2011
    If i have the maths right, you fold.
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  • iBLUFFiBLUFF Member Posts: 1,244
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
    If i have the maths right, you fold.
    Posted by DrSharp
    yeh i think you do hes not even a 50/50 hes less than that (i think) lol
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive Member Posts: 839
    edited May 2011
    WTFFFFF 

    come on guys, you should know better than that!!

    You have the nuts on the board in holdem=SNAP CALL ANY BET

    It doesn't matter WHAT the action is, unless someone else turns over the nuts with redraw to better nuts, you HAVE to play! You're not a 50/50 to win, but you're not on a 50/50 money split- you're calling ~230 to win 460, and you are better than 33%. Off the top of my head, one player has 4 outs, the other has 12, so you're around 40% to win? Not sure on the absolute %s off the top of my head, think you're just over 40%.

    40%>33%. CALL.

     
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2011
    lol emmmm

    SNAP SNAP SNAP

    What more do you want lol you have flopped the nutz
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  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 6,300
    edited May 2011
    Its a shove and look away as long as you are playing within your BR. 

    like deuces said - your about 40% but your getting paid 2/1

    Ps - what happened? 
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  • RAB642RAB642 Member Posts: 417
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
      i have 10 spades 9 dimonds flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs 2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand one player has Q 8 the other has k 10 of hearts ... there is £40 in the middle and they have both pushed £230 each what would u do
    Posted by Luke_Jones
    snap call you are there to win, you already have the hand and they need to hit, you will win more than lose in this spot
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  • DrSharpDrSharp Member Posts: 1,213
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
    Its a shove and look away as long as you are playing within your BR.  like deuces said - your about 40% but your getting paid 2/1 Ps - what happened? 
    Posted by MP33
    Maths say your 40% so i originally said fold. MP33 rightly says the odds suggest you call.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
    In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it : Maths say your 40% so i originally said fold. MP33 rightly says the odds suggest you call.
    Posted by DrSharp

    You have to dodge some cards but hey if anyone folds in this spot then maybe they should stop playing poker :)
    The point is no one will ever fold this hand in this spot so really forget the odds/maths in hindsight.
    You have the nutz so why the **** will anyone fold :)

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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    lol at folding the nuts

     you dont need to be 50/50, if you want to fold here give up poker imo
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  • Luke_JonesLuke_Jones Member Posts: 33
    edited May 2011
    well no matter how much i worked it out i hated it but no way was i folding this i came 3rd in the hand flush was made on the turn Q8 made full house on river. looking it over ok i have THE NUTS on the flop but against the     2 pair and the straight flush draw if this hand was played 100 times i would like to see how many time's you would win
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  • salad24salad24 Member Posts: 275
    edited May 2011
    What happened? I am assuming you folded?
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  • salad24salad24 Member Posts: 275
    edited May 2011
    What happened? I am assuming you folded?
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive Member Posts: 839
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:
    well no matter how much i worked it out i hated it but no way was i folding this i came 3rd in the hand flush was made on the turn Q8 made full house on river. looking it over ok i have THE NUTS on the flop but against the     2 pair and the straight flush draw if this hand was played 100 times i would like to see how many time's you would win
    Posted by Luke_Jones
    that's why it's a mathematical % based decision. You're not a favourite to win it, but put it this way- you pay £230 every hand (that's an outlay of £23000 over 100 identical hands). Every time you lose, you lose that £230. Every time you win, you gain £690 (there's a little dead money involved too which makes it even more lucrative, but you can discard that for this purpose).

    40% means simply that- 40% of the time you'll win. 60% of the time you lose. So 40 times in 100 you win £690, 60 times in 100 you win nothing. Your outlay over 100 hands is £23000, and your expected return over 100 hands is £27600. That makes it what's called a +EV spot- which means calling will make you money long term, even though you're technically not a favourite to win the hand.

    Well done for making the call, and in future- always make the same play. Do that every time and you'll be successful in that spot at least.
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