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Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.

AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
edited May 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Right firstly this is noy a Poker Question, but I couldnt think of a better heading to put it in, plus the peoples opinion I'm interested swim in this tank.

As many people probably no I play live alot.  I also play roulette and blackjack at decent stakes also when games are slow.  The overall view is right that these two sidegames are favoured towards the house, but I do experiment with certain strategies every now and then.  Over the last few months I ran like a god at roulette, but its cooled to the point where I want to protect what I've gained overall.

So I started looking at BJ a little more seriously.  This came about after a drunken challenge where a friend bet me £100 that by following a certain pattern you couldnt lose, which I told him was bull, but I went a long with it.

The theory is simple and I'm sure there are many people that no alot more about it than I do.  The approach being that if you only bet a 1%ish stake of your overall "allowance" you cannot lose, as if dealer wins you double your bet:

£300.  Starting.  £2 bet.  Win x amount of concurrant hands.  Lose one, make bet £4.  Lose again, make bet £8 and so forth.  When you win, regardless of x2 increments you reset the balance to £2.  Other rules include no double downing/ splitting on 3x base value bets.  Occasionaly you'll hit BJ on the base value x (x) gaining extra value. 

It seems to just take focus and disilpline, similar tools to poker BR managment wise.  I've had some pretty decent results.  But some disatrous results also, when being way in profit, which feels worse than losing your origonal "allowance"

Again this might be something that most people know alot more than me about, just looking for glaring holes that I'm not aware of.

EDIT.  Also based upon playing one spot against the dealer, no other players to pull cards they shouldnt.
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Comments

  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    sounds like a martingale system of some sort. Under no circumstances do this imo. Think what happens when you lose 20 hands in a row (and you will eventually) Also you are basically risking big bets to turn a big loss into a $2 profit or something
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    sounds like a martingale system of some sort. Under no circumstances do this imo. Think what happens when you lose 20 hands in a row (and you will eventually) Also you are basically risking big bets to turn a big loss into a $2 profit or something
    Posted by grantorino

    Exactly.  This did happen on a couple of occasions this week, causing me to be putting in base value x12 , even had to move stakes to accvomadate once.

    But therein lies the issue.  As long as you have the meat behind you and can take the heat, it should balance.  But I do concurr fully in what you say, your betting an awful lot to win back that base value bet if you go on a bad run.  But there have been a number of times where I've been at base value x8 (£256) making blackjack. gaining the extra £130ish squid =ing 65 base stakes.  I'm going to take a few more trial runs at it in my casino, but most I know cap the bet at £100.

    Have done it for hours online starting at 2p just to say how it plays out.  But ultimately you'll always lose i guess.  Like most things I guess its about knowing when to cash in your chips.
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    Somebody else had mentioned martingale to me so looked through some websites.  This seemed to cover it in a nutshell.

    http://www.casinoanswers.com/betting-systems/what-is-the-martingale-betting-system.php
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited May 2011
    If it's properly random, not fixed, and you have a genuine 16/33 chance of being right, I don't see how the double up system can possibly fail.

    I tried it in the bookies years ago, of course at the time I didn't realise the machines are fixed.

    Is online blackjack/roulette fixed? - Not in a "it must be rigged" way, but is it genuinely rigged like a bandit? - Sky will admit it's rigged?

    Or not?
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    havent read the link, but I wouldnt touch this system . Certainly you need a bankroll way bigger than 100x minimum stake. The fact you get paid better than even when u hit blackjack helps a little

    How much do you win when you win 10 in a row? How much do you lose when you lose 10 ina row. When played perfectly blackjack is basically breakeven, you are prob not playing perfectly if you never split or double down.

    When you are in the hole for a large number of bets you end up putting a huge % of bankroll on an even money (at best) shot. The risks are far greater than the rewards
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  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited May 2011
    Under no circumstances use this system.  I cannot express strong enough warnings for it.  It's impossible to do live (most tables have an upper limit and you will hit it) and don't do it online or you'll risk losing thousands in the time of an ad break.  Don't do it.  Ever.
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  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited May 2011
    To put math into it:

    2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024.

    That's just ten hands.  Anyone who has played blackjack for any period of time know they can easily lose 10 hands in a row.  In fact the more likely scenario is that it'll take 13-14 hands or so and include 3-4 pushes.

    The above example totals 2046.  All to win 2.  And the next bet needs to be 2048.

    DO NOT USE THIS SYSTEM.  It's about as bad as the identical as the roulette system spammed around where they misuse maths to a level to make me vomit.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE Member Posts: 2,188
    edited May 2011
    you need an infinite bankroll to be able to do this.
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    How about having a large BR and being infinitely stupid?
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  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 6,300
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    sounds like a martingale system of some sort. Under no circumstances do this imo. Think what happens when you lose 20 hands in a row (and you will eventually) Also you are basically risking big bets to turn a big loss into a $2 profit or something
    Posted by grantorino
    Thats what i was thinking - I,ve tried it myself with roulette and seen 12+ black numbers come out in a row several times. (when i,ve been on red or just watching someone else)

    had a mate who was convinced this worked and it did for a while but always catches up with you

    I often thought of applying this system to DYM,s - as a fairly competent DYM player does anyone think this would work or what roll would you need , starting at £3 or £5 games?

    edit: If your into blackjack - have you tried blackjack tournaments on Willy Hills?
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes. : Thats what i was thinking - I,ve tried it myself with roulette and seen 12+ black numbers come out in a row several times. (when i,ve been on red or just watching someone else) had a mate who was convinced this worked and it did for a while but always catches up with you I often thought of applying this system to DYM,s - as a fairly competent DYM player does anyone think this would work or what roll would you need , starting at £3 or £5 games? edit: If your into blackjack - have you tried blackjack tournaments on Willy Hills?
    Posted by MP33
    You would need an infinite roll. Its the exact same theory as above, you will eventually lose loads in a row and be playing ahuge stakes DYM to recoup your losses to gain 3 dollars or something
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    Theres some good advice here and thankyou, particularly TommyD who i've discussed this with before.

    Anything I wager on is always based in probability/Math, I think thats the draw of NLHE.  I've never bet on a football match or race of any kind.  So when your talking of betting base x10 to win back a base amount, math wise it is just dumb.

    I am curious in general about it though so have put £5 on a site and am going to spend 30 minutes a day betting the minimum, 0.02p just to see how it fares.  A 0.4% stake, with a maximum loss of £5 seems managable :p

    Just want to run the theory, gamblers curiosity if you will
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  • N1CKN1CK Member Posts: 1,453
    edited May 2011
    some1 told me if you play roulette on odds/evens and keep doubling you bet+a bit you will never lose, so i started with  £1 just double my stake if i lost to break even lost 20 spins in a row down 1 million pounds, ok i never really lost 1 mil but it only takes 20 doubles lol
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    Amybr, come back on and lol at everyone when you are a supa rich balla from using a Martingale system to play blackjack. Amazing no one else has thought of it :)
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    If you read through the thread in this forum properly you'll see I never said anything like that.

    I was exploring the "strategy" acknowleding that its dumb overall.  But I have time to kill in casino's so like to find interesting things to do.
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  • N1CKN1CK Member Posts: 1,453
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    If you read through the thread in this forum properly you'll see I never said anything like that. I was exploring the "strategy" acknowleding that its dumb overall.  But I have time to kill in casino's so like to find interesting things to do.
    Posted by AMYBR
    run/play better
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    If you read through the thread in this forum properly you'll see I never said anything like that. I was exploring the "strategy" acknowleding that its dumb overall.  But I have time to kill in casino's so like to find interesting things to do.
    Posted by AMYBR
    lol, just kidding dude, its your money go for it
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes. : run/play better
    Posted by N1CK

    I shall try to remember this while waiting for MTT's t start and cash seats to open........................
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  • N1CKN1CK Member Posts: 1,453
    edited May 2011
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes.:
    In Response to Re: Not Poker, but BR/math similarities in sidegame. Interested in finding the holes. : I shall try to remember this while waiting for MTT's t start and cash seats to open........................
    Posted by AMYBR
    chill out dude lol
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