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Play off finals weekend & CL Final too!
silentbob
Member Posts: 2,137
Hi peeps
As some may have noticed I've not really been around the forum much for the last couple of months for varying personal reasons but hopefully I'm through the worst of it now 
And so we come to the final action of the season. I never thought I'd say this cos I love the game & usually hate the close season but I'm actually really glad to see the back of this term. It's been an unhappy one for me on just about every level 
Play offs:
League 2 - Torquay @ 5/6
League 1 - Huddersfield @ 8/11
Championship - Reading @ 10/11
*NOTE - All prices are from the win outright market & NOT 90 minutes
In League 2 you could literally flip a coin to decide who to back. I really think it's that close. Both overcame difficult semi games with Torquay beating Shrewsbury 2-0 on aggregate & Stevenage overcoming Accrington 3-0 over both games. However there are two reasons why I'm backing Torquay here. Firstly they've tightened up a fair but defensively & they've certainly got goals in them. On paper they didn't have the greatest set of results in the run in but they certainly had the more difficult games. Secondly these two sides have met 6 times since 2007 when Torquay began their stint in the conference & the Gulls certainly have the better record with 4 wins & 2 draws. Like I say, it's gonna be tight & you could make decent arguments to back Stevenage too but based on the last two points I'll be backing the boys from the South West.
The League 1 final could be a belter for the neutral. Both sides have been fairly evenly matched in their meetings over the last couple of years with 1 draw & 2 wins apiece (all competitions). Huddersfield were my picks for the League 1 title back in August & had they not got off to a slow start they might have done it. You have to go back to December 28th for their last league defeat when they went down 4-1 at Southampton. Peterborough's biggest strength this season has been their ability to score goals. They were the top scorers in all four divisions this term with a whopping 106 in their goals for column. However, their biggest weakness is their defence. In League 1 only Bristol Rovers conceded more than Peterborough this term & they finished 3rd from bottom! In fact, in all four divisions there were only two other teams who conceded more league goals & avoided relegation (Doncaster & Barnet) & even then both sides avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth. Peterborough have also got a few injury worries & crucially 1st choice keeper Joe Lewis will miss out. Given Posh's defensive frailties along with Huddersfields scoring power it's for that reason I'll be backing the Terriers to make the jump up here.
Reading were my picks for the Championship title back in August & had they clicked a bit sooner than they did then I'm convinced they would've taken 2nd spot at the very least. Swansea may have done the double over the Royals in the league this term but that counts for absolutely nothing now. A case in point is when we won promotion via the play offs against Preston back in 2005. They also did the double over us that season but when it came to the important one we all know the outcome. Reading have been in the better form coming into the play offs with only 1 league defeat in their last 16 regular season games. You could also argue that they had the more difficult game in the semis against Cardiff, particularly when they only managed a draw in the 1st leg at home. Swansea won't be easy & will certainly fight for everything. They don't concede too many & had the 2nd best defensive record in the division behind champions QPR but they lost more games on the road than anyone else in the top 6 & it's for that reason I'll be backing Reading to return to the top flight after a 2 year absence. It should be a close game & certainly has the potential to go to extra time at least but I feel that Reading have a bit more fire power about them.
The treble pays a not too shabby 5/1 so well worth a pop.
Champions League Final - Man Utd Vs Barcelona
Will this be the classic we all hope for or a big damp squib? Like everyone else I'm hoping for the former.
Most people will be backing Barca here but only a fool would write off United & SAF. United will also have revenge in mind for 2009 when they lost this game 2-0 in Rome.
In case anyone hasn't seen it (unlikely), Sky have a fantastic promotion in place for this game too (imo). If either Lionel Messi OR Wayne Rooney score in 90 minutes, Sky will refund all losing goalscorer, correct score & scorecast bets! Obviously it's possible that neither player will score in 90 minutes but personally I think it's more likely that at least one of them (Messi) will grab a goal. Full information is in the link below.
With that in mind I think it's worth taking a look at some of the slightly riskier bets as they could well end up being a total freeroll. I haven't yet decided which one to back but here's a selection of what I quite like the look of.
Man Utd to win 2-1 @ 14/1
Barcelona to win 3-1 @ 16/1
Vidic to score in 90 minutes @ 7/1
Messi to score a hat trick @ 25/1
Both to score - Villa & Nani @ 14/1
1st Team goalscorer - Vidic @ 16/1
Scorecast - Giggs & Man Utd win 2-1 @ 130/1
Scorecast - Villa & Barcelona win 3-1 @ 70/1
Hernandez to score a brace @ 12/1
At the moment I think I'm leaning towards backing Villa & Nani both to score in 90 minutes although I might have a couple of smaller ones.
Good luck peeps. It's only a little over 2 months before it all starts again! Unless of course you're Fulham in which case you've got about a month!!
Comments
I had singles on Swansea, Huddersfield and Shrewsbury to get promoted. Put these 3 in a trixie too.
So could be a nice return if the Swans and Huddersfield go up.
Staked £35 if they all win I will get £107
Torquay Win (90mins) £15 @ 7/4
Man Utd v Barcelona Over 2.5 £15 @ 13/10
£10 on the Double @ 5.3/1
I really fancy Torquay's chances today especially as they are by far the better footballing team. The big pitch at Old Trafford should really suit them.