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What do you think about this?

DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
edited June 2011 in Poker Chat

Was talking to Don about how good he would have to run to win a 128 player heads up knockout tourny where the winner took all the prize pool. Nothing for 2nd.

The buy in is $2,20.
It's 1,500 chips, 10 min blinds, and just best of 1 single game.

Question

If Phil Ivey played 100 of these competitions, under some random username....How many would you expect him to win?
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Comments

  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8 Member Posts: 6,228
    edited June 2011
    Maybe 5 at best.
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  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited June 2011
    if you asked a bookie for odds on him winning this at these stakes.
    You would be very lucky to get 12/1 (1.5k starting stack)
    If it was 5k starting stack, I would like to see him win this 1/10
    With it at 1.5k 1 in 25 times.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,818
    edited June 2011
    the blinds are pretty good in these tbh, for all its a 1500 starting stack its a slow structure. Resetting for every round. I semi finaled one last week. although that was $5.50 with 64 runners. Felt pretty gutted as had a 5-1 chip lead and QQ v 55 and a set later i was cripped with a 10-1 chip dog. but guessing thats HU variance.

    Im not gona state an opinion here, as i think the odds given so far are possibly about right.
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  • dtm75dtm75 Member Posts: 263
    edited June 2011
    Need to win 7 in a row, right?  128=>64=>32=>16=>8=>4=>2=>1

    Phil Ivey, let's just say will win 75% of the HU games assuming he's 3 times superior than his average opponent.

    3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.1335 (4dp)

    So he's a 13% shot (for each tournament). He plays 100 and has approx 13 wins.  Would he win 3 out of 4 heads-up games against me (almost certainly 4) but what about a field full of Reds, DOHHHHH, Durr, Antonious, TK etc???

    Right, back to work...
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,818
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: What do you think about this?:
    Need to win 7 in a row, right?  128= />64=>32=>16=>8=>4=>2=>1 Phil Ivey, let's just say will win 75% of the HU games assuming he's 3 times superior than his average opponent. 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.1335 (4dp) So he's a 13% shot (for each tournament). He plays 100 and has approx 13 wins.  Would he win 3 out of 4 heads-up games against me (almost certainly 4) but what about a field full of Reds, DOHHHHH, Durr, Antonious, TK etc??? Right, back to work...
    Posted by dtm75
    That guy is terrible. even ive beat him HU more times than hes beat me. Complete fish.
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited June 2011
    i'd expect either to win around 5 but i completely agree and don although your a competent hu player :P you would need to run like usain bolt to win 1 of those but gl
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited June 2011

    Lol!!!

    He only went and won it!!!

    $258

    wp don!
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  • AcidMan27AcidMan27 Member Posts: 3,752
    edited June 2011
    Nice one Don.

    Now go and do well in the UKIPT.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,818
    edited June 2011
    256 JJ.

    Now shove this whole don wont win it in your piehole or face me HU. (actually im due a loss so dnt) but still. HEHEHEHEHEHE


    Epic feeling.
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited June 2011
    Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii run better donald :) wp matey
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,818
    edited June 2011
    ty guys.
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  • tapewormtapeworm Member Posts: 432
    edited June 2011
    congrats don!!
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  • billybootsbillyboots Member Posts: 1,197
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: What do you think about this?:
    256 JJ. Now shove this whole don wont win it in your piehole or face me HU. (actually im due a loss so dnt) but still. HEHEHEHEHEHE Epic feeling.
    Posted by The_Don90
    Way you go Don..............wp
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  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,123
    edited June 2011
    wp don and best of luck in the UKIPT
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