All Categories› The Poker Clinic

You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

Correct call?

percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
edited June 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Just a quick one, just wondering whether this is a profitable play in a 5.50$ 2R1A latter stages

doesn't really matter about PF, all you need to know is villain has 112K and i have 187K with blinds at 1k 2K, so we're both deep.
i hold 67 of spades and have called a raise
flop 3 spades, 5 diamonds, 9 spades
villain open shoves (LOL) 104K into a 21K pot, i gave myself 17 outs, and tbf i snap called, i put him on over pair and don't think i've ever called anything as quick in my life!
is this correct mathematically etc? didnt think i could fold as that was the flop i paid to hit, the result is pointless
· Share on Twitter

Comments

  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited June 2011
    15 outs by my count if he has an overpair, which is basically a flip. If he has spadedraw with 2 overs we are 2/1dog .Bare overs we are 2/1 favourite. I think you can call but I prob fold especially this deep and you prob have an advantage over field. A big part of the value of draws like this is fold equity against hands we beat/flip with and we have none here
    · Share on Twitter
  • BigBlusterBigBluster Member Posts: 1,075
    edited June 2011
    Mathematically (assuming he did have an overpair and not AsKs) you were about 56% so it was a correct call.

    However, the same mathematics also apply even if the villain had just a single chip more than you but in this scenario you must fold. Why give the villain a 44% chance of beating you when you could grind him down, whereby (assuming you're the better player) he'd only have maybe a 15% chance?
    This is fairly obvious (giving up a +ev play for a bigger +ev situation) but for some reason is hellishly complicated to poker players!
    · Share on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: Correct call?:
    Mathematically (assuming he did have an overpair and not AsKs) you were about 56% so it was a correct call. However, the same mathematics also apply even if the villain had just a single chip more than you but in this scenario you must fold. Why give the villain a 44% chance of beating you when you could grind him down, whereby (assuming you're the better player) he'd only have maybe a 15% chance? This is fairly obvious (giving up a +ev play for a bigger +ev situation) but for some reason is hellishly complicated to poker players!
    Posted by BigBluster
    If we should fold when villain has 44% chance to knock us out why should we call when he has 44% chance to take 2/3 of our stack?

    Why do you think we are 85% to beat any player in a tournament ?  I think that seriously overestimating anyone edge in a single tournament with this stack depth
    · Share on Twitter
  • BigBlusterBigBluster Member Posts: 1,075
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: Correct call?:
    In Response to Re: Correct call? : If we should fold when villain has 44% chance to knock us out why should we call when he has 44% chance to take 2/3 of our stack? Posted by grantorino
    Because we'd still have 38 bigs if we lost. This is a massive difference to tournament strategy.
    · Share on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: Correct call?:
    In Response to Re: Correct call? : Because we'd still have 38 bigs if we lost. This is a massive difference to tournament strategy.
    Posted by BigBluster
    fair enough, misread it thought we were left with a lot less if we lost
    · Share on Twitter
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,072
    edited June 2011
    yeah because of the fact you have 38 bigs if you lose, I would call
    · Share on Twitter
  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited June 2011
    ty for responses, i recovered from this and finished 5th so all is good! looking back maybe the fold was the correct decision, but i couldn't bring myself to do it after hitting the dream flop!  
    · Share on Twitter
Sign In or Register to comment.