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explain expected value.....

DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
edited June 2011 in The Poker Clinic

Talking to a mate who's just binked a sat.

It was a super turbo jobbie shovefest, with loads of all ins and flips etc etc etc.

Anyway, afterwards, I said he ran golden to get through that field with that structure. He disagreed, and claimed he'd "ran normal" as he rarely went in behind and had the best hand most of the time.

I tried explaining (badly) that everytime you win an all in confrontation where your opponent has equity in the hand (ie he isn't drawing dead) then you are running above expectation....

Is this correct?

If I get AA all in pre flop against 22 and I win, I'm running +ev? - right?

So to cash or even go deep in a tournament you MUST be running +ev?

Can anyone confirm what I'm saying is right, or even try and explain it better than me, because it's tilting me.

Thanx.
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  • MohicanMohican Member Posts: 1,435
    edited June 2011
    This cleared it up for me- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
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  • JohnConnorJohnConnor Member Posts: 1,160
    edited June 2011
    In Response to explain expected value.....:
    Talking to a mate who's just binked a sat. It was a super turbo jobbie shovefest, with loads of all ins and flips etc etc etc. Anyway, afterwards, I said he ran golden to get through that field with that structure. He disagreed, and claimed he'd "ran normal" as he rarely went in behind and had the best hand most of the time. I tried explaining (badly) that everytime you win an all in confrontation where your opponent has equity in the hand (ie he isn't drawing dead) then you are running above expectation.... Is this correct? If I get AA all in pre flop against 22 and I win, I'm running +ev? - right? So to cash or even go deep in a tournament you MUST be running +ev? Can anyone confirm what I'm saying is right, or even try and explain it better than me, because it's tilting me. Thanx.
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    This isn't what I thought to be fair. I thought expected value meant exactly that, what you expect to win in the long run. So in your example, he's running +EV if he wins 5/5 and neutral EV if he wins 4/5. Similarly if I play DYMs all day and win 10/20 flips I have run neutral EV, if I lose 12 and win 8 I have run slightly -EV etc...happy to be corrected here...
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited June 2011
    Maybe I should have stated in bolded bit above ^^^^ that I've run +ev for that individual hand.
    Yeh so if I get all the money in on the turn somehow with 98% equity and my hand holds up, I'm technically running +ev because I've won it 100% of the time, alb    eit over a sample of 1 hand and I should only win it 98% of the time?

    So if you take the following examples...

    AA v KK aipf, ...... I hold...

    AK v KQ aipf ..... I hold.....

    ATs v JQs aipf ...... I hold .....

    Top set v flush draw ai on the flop .... I hold......

    QQ v 88 aipf ...... I hold ......

    I've got it in good every time, but by holding every time I'm running well +ev?

    ---------------------------------------

    Then AA v 77 aipf and I lose....

    I must have run +ev overall on those hands, despite busting the tourny in a coup where I held 80% equity and suffered a pretty bad beat?


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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited June 2011

    ill admit to this mate being me btw.

    Johnconnor your arguement is the exact same one i held.

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    ill admit to this mate being me btw. Johnconnor your arguement is the exact same one i held.
    Posted by The_Don90
    Brag that you binked a sat imo ;)
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    In Response to Re: explain expected value..... : Brag that you binked a sat imo ;)
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    still one more to go sir.
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  • nmipeisnmipeis Member Posts: 43
    edited June 2011

    to make an example of expected value if u got all in with AA and get called by 22, both have £100 each and were in the blinds the total pot would be £200. because u have roughly 80% equity, in the long term u can expect to win an average of £160 (80% of £200) so effectively every time u win the pot for 200 total u have won more than you can expect long term and are therefore running above ev.

    as a single example this obv doesnt work to well, but this can be applied over lots of scenarios to create useful results.

    your friend obv ran above ev to win btw.

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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    to make an example of expected value if u got all in with AA and get called by 22, both have £100 each and were in the blinds the total pot would be £200. because u have roughly 80% equity, in the long term u can expect to win an average of £160 (80% of £200) so effectively every time u win the pot for 200 total u have won more than you can expect long term and are therefore running above ev. as a single example this obv doesnt work to well, but this can be applied over lots of scenarios to create useful results. your friend obv ran above ev to win btw.
    Posted by nmipeis
    actually i quadded iup by shoving several times without getting called. Every little helps ;)

    After the rebuy period ended i had 5BB and that was about the average. Which was crazy. i think i only had to show my cards 3 times after that, AA v 66 AIP, KQ v AT of short stack i isolated knowing even if i lost i was gaining chips as he had 0.5BB. I hit a Q. and final hand i had K9 on BB. Shorty shoved with less then a BB and me and SB just checked down i won with a flush to 9 i never seen what the others had. 

    On the whole i took 3 double rebuys and my add on at the break (which gave me the total of 5BB). The rebuy period was all about really getting to the addon break with as many chips as possible. 5 min blinds arent forgiving in a 90 min rebuy period with a 6K double rebuy and 30K addon so it was very much a shovefest. 

    Tomorrows stage 2 sat (1 in 14 i think) is £108 entry 30 min blinds with 5K starting and no rebuys. So will be a far better tourny overall.  
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  • shipdchipsshipdchips Member Posts: 199
    edited June 2011
    Expected value is the amount of money a certain play expects to win or lose on avarage.

    +EV will win money over the long run

    -EV  will lose money over the long run

    The way it works

    Multiply the results of the possiable outcomes by their probabillity of happening, and then add all of them together.

    Coin flip

    A friend offers to pay you £1.50 every time he flips a coin and it lands Tails
    if it lands Heads you pay him £1.00

    Heads = Lose £1 probabillity of heads =0.50p
    Tails   = Win  £1.50 probabillity of Tails =0.50p

    EV = Heads outcome + Tails outcome

    = -£1 x 0.5 + £1.50 x 0.50
    = -0.5 + 0.75

    = £ 0.25p EV
     
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited June 2011
    I agree with JJ son here and was obvious it was don before he even posted lol

    every hand you win your running +ev as long as your not 100% fave which is rare :P
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited June 2011
    shipdchips explanation is pretty good. When people use terms like +EV they are usually referring to a single decision, to call or raise.

    But yeah doh your basically  correct if you get it in as a 60% favourite of whatever  and you win 5 times in a row doing this you are running good, as you should only win 3 even though you got your money in good each time
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  • pomfrittespomfrittes Member Posts: 2,981
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    This cleared it up for me- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
    Posted by Mohican

      LOL, yeh much clearer now m8.
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    In Response to Re: explain expected value..... : actually i quadded iup by shoving several times without getting called. Every little helps ;) After the rebuy period ended i had 5BB and that was about the average. Which was crazy. i think i only had to show my cards 3 times after that, AA v 66 AIP, KQ v AT of short stack i isolated knowing even if i lost i was gaining chips as he had 0.5BB. I hit a Q. and final hand i had K9 on BB. Shorty shoved with less then a BB and me and SB just checked down i won with a flush to 9 i never seen what the others had.  On the whole i took 3 double rebuys and my add on at the break (which gave me the total of 5BB). The rebuy period was all about really getting to the addon break with as many chips as possible. 5 min blinds arent forgiving in a 90 min rebuy period with a 6K double rebuy and 30K addon so it was very much a shovefest.  Tomorrows stage 2 sat (1 in 14 i think) is £108 entry 30 min blinds with 5K starting and no rebuys. So will be a far better tourny overall.  
    Posted by The_Don90
    How can you quad up without getting called MBN??

    this has turned into a brag post donald
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  • CodexCodex Member Posts: 211
    edited June 2011
    if u have ante's and high blinds relative to your stack size, just taking the blinds and ante's can double your stack - which sounds about right given 5bb was a normal stack
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  • CodexCodex Member Posts: 211
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    This cleared it up for me- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
    Posted by Mohican
    yeah this is a great little article than clarify some of the finer details for you, well worth a read


    essentially, if a move is +EV, if you do it everytime in the long run you make money, if its a -EV move, u might get away with it but overtime you lose

    this 'running +EV'  i've not heard before, but presumably means you have won more than should have from hands played at showdown
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  • CodexCodex Member Posts: 211
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    This cleared it up for me- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
    Posted by Mohican
    yeah this is a great little article than clarify some of the finer details for you, well worth a read


    essentially, if a move is +EV, if you do it everytime in the long run you make money, if its a -EV move, u might get away with it but overtime you lose

    this 'running +EV'  i've not heard before, but presumably means you have won more than should have from hands played at showdown
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  • delaney09delaney09 Member Posts: 1,145
    edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: explain expected value.....:
    In Response to Re: explain expected value..... : How can you quad up without getting called MBN?? this has turned into a brag post donald
    Posted by YOUNG_GUN

    easy when the blinds are going up quicker then your getting dealt hands haha bink that next stage don !!!!
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