I think James Hartigan has just proven why he is commentator for the EPT, PCA and Sky Poker amoungst other tournaments.
James i salute you sir!
I also applaud you giving us background information that was not seen on the telle. As you stated we see so few hands that are shown and so many people then think, oh thats how you play poker. I think you've proven here that, that is not always the case.
Thankyou James. This was pretty much the answer I was hoping for. I know you pick your words carefully in post production and there was such a duality there that I really wanted to hear your finer thoughts on it. I figured it was a loaded statement and am grateful for the thoughts behind it Grantorino and I have spoiken on this in PM, and I have to agree that his questions very clearly highlight the issues within this hand, so I really oughtn't to have been so grouchy. Grantorino wanted to discuss this hand in detail, now tha you've answered i'm happy to do so. My only real argument on the hand is Bijgaart has to bet for value vs a better A in this spot. Opener is mostly insignifivant, as he cant really call a raise and re raise after opening, so it just leaves Wil band BIJ. Wil def re raises Apic here so Bij re raising top 2 here is fine IMO as otherwise we give opener odds to call. Any paint turn really makes us question our hand. I 3 bet here everytime, yet I understand Grantorino's POV. We are only betting to call all in or folding/flatting behind. But Wil can be raising light enoughj here that a 3 bet means a healthy addition of chips approaching FT, without playing on furthar streets, When Wil 4betys when Bij is committed, a bluff really is in the super low end of his range with the 4 bet, plus I dont think he's playing Apic pre or post this way. So I dont think this hand can be put in a EV+ bracket, due to there being such a flood of info contained in the hand, being layered bets and live reads. This shouldnt be an auto stack off IMO, the way the action plays. I know Grantorino has strong online linss in regard to betting value/iinfo, but this is the exception that proves he rule that I tend to speak of. Based on the way the action plays, I think this is a very difficult, yet clear fold. But grantorino is right to highlight the points that he does. Posted by AMYBR
Again its not the fold in isolation I've an issue with, its the line of raise for value, then fold to a shove with a strong hand when villain flatting is very unlikely
The first bolded part is where I disagree, where is the value when he 3bets if hes folding to a shove?
The second bolded part is may be ok, but if this is your plan you may as well have 63o, and obv we are getting no value with top 2.
Tbf Im not sure the way the action panned out that there is much value to be had, the bet and raise in front means your hand is going to be viewed as very srong whether you flat or raise
In Response to Re: Question for Mr Hartigan on EPT Berlin. : Again its not the fold in isolation I've an issue with, its the line of raise for value, then fold to a shove with a strong hand when villain flatting is very unlikely The first bolded part is where I disagree, where is the value when he 3bets if hes folding to a shove? The second bolded part is may be ok, but if this is your plan you may as well have 63o, and obv we are getting no value with top 2. Tbf Im not sure the way the action panned out that there is much value to be had, the bet and raise in front means your hand is going to be viewed as very srong whether you flat or raise Have to go might post a little more on this later Posted by grantorino
In his mind when he 3 bets, he is never folding to a shove, he puts in 1/3rd for value as opposed to shoving at that time, when Wilinofski shoves he takes plenty of time, he puts himself through the ringer and he gets the tell from Wilinofski, he then cleverly takes more time before finally folding when he is sure he is beat.
Yes it is a -EV play but every play has to be taken on it's own merit, of course most players go bust there but they don't have the info that Joep had from playing for hours at a live table. It was a great fold due to the instincts gained from live reads, if this was online he goes broke!
It is similar to the read Moneymaker had at PCA broadcast a few weeks ago and Romanello also a few years back, surely you can't bracket it a -EV play if they constantly make the correct play.
Great response from James and top debate from AmyBR and Grantorino, have enjoyed your posts guys.
Your above post was exactly my intended argument solar, so I wont repeat it again.
I will add that if Wil has Apic here he likely re raises flop. So Bij is 3 betting (IMO) to extract value, force out opener and pick up the pot when Wil is 3 betting light, which he had a tendancy to be doing.
We are approaching FT at this point, as strong as Bij believes he is, I'm sure he's happy to pick up the pot then and there.
The lines you've highlighted Grantorino: 1st one, when he 3bets he's about 100% certain he has the best hand. Its only when the 4 bet puts him in he is forced to reassess his strength. This is one of the key differences between online and live play IMO. Bij is able to take all the time he needs to peel the hand back, look for information and listen to his gut. You pretty much are stacking off online without the added layer of info (as someone else said). He doesnt 3 bet with the intention of folding, am pretty sure he thinks its the end of the end. But your only getting played back at slim there, as selectively Laggy as Wil had been, a bluff or Apic really isnt going to be in his playbook that often. As i said before, this isnt about EV-/+, its simply about trying to make a critical decision in an important spot. I truly dont think he was ever calling, live read or not. No matter what Wil did, Bij was folding, down to the action. The live tell merely helped him along.
Think I pretty much answered your second highlighted part in there
Yeah JockBMW. I remember thinking the same thing you post as I heard Hartigan's commentary. I was tired but went to bed thinking "I must ask Mr. Hartigan about that in the morning". It being great that I was able to do so. Also great input on the Liv Million euro girl doc James. Very few people would be that frank in that spot, which made it very enjoyable
Your above post was exactly my intended argument solar, so I wont repeat it again. I will add that if Wil has Apic here he likely re raises flop. So Bij is 3 betting (IMO) to extract value, force out opener and pick up the pot when Wil is 3 betting light, which he had a tendancy to be doing. We are approaching FT at this point, as strong as Bij believes he is, I'm sure he's happy to pick up the pot then and there. The lines you've highlighted Grantorino: 1st one, when he 3bets he's about 100% certain he has the best hand. Its only when the 4 bet puts him in he is forced to reassess his strength. This is one of the key differences between online and live play IMO. Bij is able to take all the time he needs to peel the hand back, look for information and listen to his gut. You pretty much are stacking off online without the added layer of info (as someone else said). He doesnt 3 bet with the intention of folding, am pretty sure he thinks its the end of the end. But your only getting played back at slim there, as selectively Laggy as Wil had been, a bluff or Apic really isnt going to be in his playbook that often. As i said before, this isnt about EV-/+, its simply about trying to make a critical decision in an important spot. I truly dont think he was ever calling, live read or not. No matter what Wil did, Bij was folding, down to the action. The live tell merely helped him along. Think I pretty much answered your second highlighted part in there Yeah JockBMW. I remember thinking the same thing you post as I heard Hartigan's commentary. I was tired but went to bed thinking "I must ask Mr. Hartigan about that in the morning". It being great that I was able to do so. Also great input on the Liv Million euro girl doc James. Very few people would be that frank in that spot, which made it very enjoyable Posted by AMYBR
I can understand solarcarro's point about betting intending to call, getting a tell changing his mind and folding. And if you know how to pick up on body language tells etc and are good at it that sounds fine (Personally I wouldnt have that skill)
Answer these questions/points for me clearly, they relate to the parts I bolded in your post 1. How is he betting for value if he is folding to a 4bet (Im assuming he gets flatted close to never and if he does its prob as strong as 4betting anyway)
2. He should be assessing before he 3bets, what hands villain likely fold, what hands villain likely continues with. If he doesnt like his chances against continuing range he cant raise for value
And I dont get this its not about +EV stuff. If you think 3b/f is the most +EV move here go for it, otherwise go for something else. You can use all the info about this individual spot inc reads, live tells etc
Amybr, I'm not sure I even hate raise folding here that much cos if we flat its going to be tough get more action anyway and we prob give up 2 free cards while not increasing our chances of getting paid when ahead that much. It does turn the 4th nuts into a bluff though, and all we are doing is protecting our hand we are not getting any value.
In Response to Re: Question for Mr Hartigan on EPT Berlin. : I can understand solarcarro's point about betting intending to call, getting a tell changing his mind and folding. And if you know how to pick up on body language tells etc and are good at it that sounds fine (Personally I wouldnt have that skill) Answer these questions/points for me clearly, they relate to the parts I bolded in your post 1. How is he betting for value if he is folding to a 4bet (Im assuming he gets flatted close to never and if he does its prob as strong as 4betting anyway) 2. He should be assessing before he 3bets, what hands villain likely fold, what hands villain likely continues with. If he doesnt like his chances against continuing range he cant raise for value And I dont get this its not about +EV stuff. If you think 3b/f is the most +EV move here go for it, otherwise go for something else. You can use all the info about this individual spot inc reads, live tells etc Amybr, I'm not sure I even hate raise folding here that much cos if we flat its going to be tough get more action anyway and we prob give up 2 free cards while not increasing our chances of getting paid when ahead that much. It does turn the 4th nuts into a bluff though, and all we are doing is protecting our hand we are not getting any value. Posted by grantorino
It seems to me bud your using your long game EV+ head on overdrive here. Were talking about being very deep in a 800 seater, serious money being up for grabs. We can not play this hand in isolation, ignoring the signs around us. Yes we likely stack off in cash or early doors tournament, but with a firm grasp on players at table and dynamic we have to peep back the hand.
Your Questions then. 1) Betting for value. With a opening bet and raise from a semi spewbox, how do you play top 2? Do you flat pricing in opener with wide holdings? Do you fold? No on both. Do we want to play oop 3 handed and a filler or action killer to hit the turn? No. Is it likely that Wil raises with Apic there, yes. Does opener have to be at the utter top of his range to jam a cold 3 bet? yes. So when he bets, he is betting pure value, with a side order of protection, vs a semi spewy wil and cbetting opener. His bet is for value until he is 4bet. Wil has been playing wide open enough and is stacked enough to call or 5bet with Apic or combo club draw. As I said, when he c/r 3 bets he is doubtless that he has the best hand, but not wanting to continue in the hand oop 3 handed approaching FT, which flatting would have resulted in. 3bet folding would have been furthest from his mind, but you cant simply ignore the 4bet. Wil knows Baj doesnt have a 1pr hand, but also knows he's pretty much committed. Bij knows that Wil knows this. This is a big factor of the fold IMO.
2) Where alot of what you say in this question makes sense in general, I have to disagree in this spot. Am sure Bij assessed prior to 3 bet, but wil has been playing so wide and raising light, plus flatting A's pre, he has to juice up the pot. Yes its as much about protection as value here, but pot has inflated to a degree that risking letting one come off is not a good option, plus as you say, unlikely and significant action on later streets from hands he's 3bet called by. Approaching FT this pot is well worth having without and tricky moves on later streets or risk association
I would never really follow a line of 3bet f either. But they are sat deep enogh here for Bij to KNOW he's beat and put his hand down. He knows instinctively that he's on the wrong side of a cooler the second the 4 bet goes in. So why stack off? It would have been an awful call IMO the way the action plays.
What I mean by not being an EV spot is that you cant club this hand in with a general rule of thumb poker. This stacked this deep I think it would be appaling to stack off when the 4bet goes in. You cant simply apply the best in long run mentality with this much on the line and this much informaton. Theres no point doing whats best in this spot over 1000000 hands when your read is so strong, backed up by the info.
He is not betting for value if he doesnt think worse continues. Hes only 50BB deep also I think? Correct me if wrong. I know thats not bad in a tourney but its not exactly hugely deep esp with antes in play. If I have stacks wrong it changes everything obv
"His bet is for value until he is 4bet" value from what? what worse hands continue?
Im not argueing about whats the best line for him to take, I dont know much about both players perceived ranges. What I am saying is that he cant 3bet for value if he is folding to a 4bet (unless he gets flatted a lot, but that seems highly unlikely with these stacks)
If I have stacks completely wrong a lot of this doesnt apply
As i said, value but a healthy slice of protection.
You dont think Wil has the potential to spew or get creative with AK/Q there? He cant 3bet preparing to lead fold, c/f turn . Cant really flat behind wil's raise. Wil easily holds Apic so flatting top two behind, going three to turn is needlessly risky. Bij being sure he has best hand bets for value vs Apic and protects against the out draw., but mostly is happy to pick up pot there. I understand exactly what your saying, he is betting for perceived value there, never thinking he cant continue, hoping to be called or jammed on by the big A that raised opener by semi Lag. Wil potentially easily mis plays Ak or turns a AcJc into a 5bet semi bluff jam. Its ok to reassess in this spot imo.
But as I have always stated, you cannot just ignore the information available. He likely intended to 3bet call furthar action, but this doesnt mean you should ignore your instincts. Often your gut knows more than you do.
villain can have worse when he 3bets. That doesnt mean hero can vbet
when you want to bet or raise for value the question you ask is what range raises or calls your bet? If you are not ahead of the range villain continues with you cannot bet for value. In this case as flatting seems really unlikely bij cant bet for value unless he is happy to call against villains shoving range.
The only info I can see him getting after he 3bets is a tell from villain. He has already decided how he fares against his 4betting range. Sure he can think back thru hand but he had the same info before he 3bet
I have never in any of my posts said to ignore any of the info. You never should live, online or whereever
He may want to bet here for other reasons, I accept that as its an unusual and tricky spot
Again this falls into the table dynamic. As Wil has been playing a 3bet for value here is standard and better than the two alternatives. Your talking about this hand as though reading the theory in a book bud, there is more to poker than dogmatically adhering to lines.
There are plenty of hands wil continues with and spew 5 bet jams. It just so happens in this instance he has the nuts and opponents instincts are tuned to see it. So EV wise the fold is TECHNICALLY bad, but thats part of what makes it so great. In that Bij has to overide his decision making process.
Comments
I think James Hartigan has just proven why he is commentator for the EPT, PCA and Sky Poker amoungst other tournaments.
James i salute you sir!
I also applaud you giving us background information that was not seen on the telle. As you stated we see so few hands that are shown and so many people then think, oh thats how you play poker. I think you've proven here that, that is not always the case.
Now enough sucking up lol.
The first bolded part is where I disagree, where is the value when he 3bets if hes folding to a shove?
The second bolded part is may be ok, but if this is your plan you may as well have 63o, and obv we are getting no value with top 2.
Tbf Im not sure the way the action panned out that there is much value to be had, the bet and raise in front means your hand is going to be viewed as very srong whether you flat or raise
Have to go might post a little more on this later
Yes it is a -EV play but every play has to be taken on it's own merit, of course most players go bust there but they don't have the info that Joep had from playing for hours at a live table. It was a great fold due to the instincts gained from live reads, if this was online he goes broke!
It is similar to the read Moneymaker had at PCA broadcast a few weeks ago and Romanello also a few years back, surely you can't bracket it a -EV play if they constantly make the correct play.
Great response from James and top debate from AmyBR and Grantorino, have enjoyed your posts guys.
Dave
I will add that if Wil has Apic here he likely re raises flop. So Bij is 3 betting (IMO) to extract value, force out opener and pick up the pot when Wil is 3 betting light, which he had a tendancy to be doing.
We are approaching FT at this point, as strong as Bij believes he is, I'm sure he's happy to pick up the pot then and there.
The lines you've highlighted Grantorino: 1st one, when he 3bets he's about 100% certain he has the best hand. Its only when the 4 bet puts him in he is forced to reassess his strength. This is one of the key differences between online and live play IMO. Bij is able to take all the time he needs to peel the hand back, look for information and listen to his gut. You pretty much are stacking off online without the added layer of info (as someone else said). He doesnt 3 bet with the intention of folding, am pretty sure he thinks its the end of the end. But your only getting played back at slim there, as selectively Laggy as Wil had been, a bluff or Apic really isnt going to be in his playbook that often. As i said before, this isnt about EV-/+, its simply about trying to make a critical decision in an important spot. I truly dont think he was ever calling, live read or not. No matter what Wil did, Bij was folding, down to the action. The live tell merely helped him along.
Think I pretty much answered your second highlighted part in there
Yeah JockBMW. I remember thinking the same thing you post as I heard Hartigan's commentary. I was tired but went to bed thinking "I must ask Mr. Hartigan about that in the morning". It being great that I was able to do so. Also great input on the Liv Million euro girl doc James. Very few people would be that frank in that spot, which made it very enjoyable
Answer these questions/points for me clearly, they relate to the parts I bolded in your post
1. How is he betting for value if he is folding to a 4bet (Im assuming he gets flatted close to never and if he does its prob as strong as 4betting anyway)
2. He should be assessing before he 3bets, what hands villain likely fold, what hands villain likely continues with. If he doesnt like his chances against continuing range he cant raise for value
And I dont get this its not about +EV stuff. If you think 3b/f is the most +EV move here go for it, otherwise go for something else. You can use all the info about this individual spot inc reads, live tells etc
Amybr, I'm not sure I even hate raise folding here that much cos if we flat its going to be tough get more action anyway and we prob give up 2 free cards while not increasing our chances of getting paid when ahead that much. It does turn the 4th nuts into a bluff though, and all we are doing is protecting our hand we are not getting any value.
Your Questions then.
1) Betting for value. With a opening bet and raise from a semi spewbox, how do you play top 2? Do you flat pricing in opener with wide holdings? Do you fold? No on both. Do we want to play oop 3 handed and a filler or action killer to hit the turn? No. Is it likely that Wil raises with Apic there, yes. Does opener have to be at the utter top of his range to jam a cold 3 bet? yes. So when he bets, he is betting pure value, with a side order of protection, vs a semi spewy wil and cbetting opener. His bet is for value until he is 4bet. Wil has been playing wide open enough and is stacked enough to call or 5bet with Apic or combo club draw. As I said, when he c/r 3 bets he is doubtless that he has the best hand, but not wanting to continue in the hand oop 3 handed approaching FT, which flatting would have resulted in. 3bet folding would have been furthest from his mind, but you cant simply ignore the 4bet. Wil knows Baj doesnt have a 1pr hand, but also knows he's pretty much committed. Bij knows that Wil knows this. This is a big factor of the fold IMO.
2) Where alot of what you say in this question makes sense in general, I have to disagree in this spot. Am sure Bij assessed prior to 3 bet, but wil has been playing so wide and raising light, plus flatting A's pre, he has to juice up the pot. Yes its as much about protection as value here, but pot has inflated to a degree that risking letting one come off is not a good option, plus as you say, unlikely and significant action on later streets from hands he's 3bet called by. Approaching FT this pot is well worth having without and tricky moves on later streets or risk association
I would never really follow a line of 3bet f either. But they are sat deep enogh here for Bij to KNOW he's beat and put his hand down. He knows instinctively that he's on the wrong side of a cooler the second the 4 bet goes in. So why stack off? It would have been an awful call IMO the way the action plays.
What I mean by not being an EV spot is that you cant club this hand in with a general rule of thumb poker. This stacked this deep I think it would be appaling to stack off when the 4bet goes in. You cant simply apply the best in long run mentality with this much on the line and this much informaton. Theres no point doing whats best in this spot over 1000000 hands when your read is so strong, backed up by the info.
I agree do what is best for this individual hand.
He is not betting for value if he doesnt think worse continues. Hes only 50BB deep also I think? Correct me if wrong. I know thats not bad in a tourney but its not exactly hugely deep esp with antes in play. If I have stacks wrong it changes everything obv
"His bet is for value until he is 4bet" value from what? what worse hands continue?
Im not argueing about whats the best line for him to take, I dont know much about both players perceived ranges. What I am saying is that he cant 3bet for value if he is folding to a 4bet (unless he gets flatted a lot, but that seems highly unlikely with these stacks)
If I have stacks completely wrong a lot of this doesnt apply
You dont think Wil has the potential to spew or get creative with AK/Q there? He cant 3bet preparing to lead fold, c/f turn . Cant really flat behind wil's raise. Wil easily holds Apic so flatting top two behind, going three to turn is needlessly risky. Bij being sure he has best hand bets for value vs Apic and protects against the out draw., but mostly is happy to pick up pot there. I understand exactly what your saying, he is betting for perceived value there, never thinking he cant continue, hoping to be called or jammed on by the big A that raised opener by semi Lag. Wil potentially easily mis plays Ak or turns a AcJc into a 5bet semi bluff jam. Its ok to reassess in this spot imo.
But as I have always stated, you cannot just ignore the information available. He likely intended to 3bet call furthar action, but this doesnt mean you should ignore your instincts. Often your gut knows more than you do.
villain can have worse when he 3bets. That doesnt mean hero can vbet
when you want to bet or raise for value the question you ask is what range raises or calls your bet? If you are not ahead of the range villain continues with you cannot bet for value. In this case as flatting seems really unlikely bij cant bet for value unless he is happy to call against villains shoving range.
The only info I can see him getting after he 3bets is a tell from villain. He has already decided how he fares against his 4betting range. Sure he can think back thru hand but he had the same info before he 3bet
I have never in any of my posts said to ignore any of the info. You never should live, online or whereever
He may want to bet here for other reasons, I accept that as its an unusual and tricky spot
There are plenty of hands wil continues with and spew 5 bet jams. It just so happens in this instance he has the nuts and opponents instincts are tuned to see it. So EV wise the fold is TECHNICALLY bad, but thats part of what makes it so great. In that Bij has to overide his decision making process.