NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned

AMYBR

Weird hand at NL200 sat deep last night.  Wondered what some of your guys take on it is, how you act on streets.

£1/2 cash, game been going for around 4 hours, winded down to 5 players, mostly regs (live).  I'm sat with around £640 opponent has £820.

5 handed, gets folded to me on the button.  I 'm dealt KdJd.  Make it £7 to go.  SB is super laggy in general, massively overbets draws and puts himself in bad spots, generally plays his hand, never opponents.  He quickly pops me to £26.  BB folds.  I call for £19 (sat deep inpos).  FWIW there hadnt been many 3 bets pre for awhile, so slightly wary, generally opponent doesnt have me dominated here though.

£54 in pot  Ks7dQc.  Opponent bets £40 confidently, in alot of ways I dont like my hand, I'm certainly not getting massively committed here with the 3 bet pre.  Opponent's range feels likeAA/QQ/AQ or under PP.  I think it through and have to call really, to see if he slows down at turn.

£134 in pot (£550 behind and am covered.  Ks7dQc   Kh.  Now I obviously have to feel like I have the best hand, but am still slightly wary of opponents range as he ponders and bets £95.  He seems very comfortable, i've played with this guy alot and am in a tricky spot.

1.  I know I am now tied to the hand
2.  Raise or call.
3.  Flat knowing he will fire big on river.

I am still mildly woried about opponents range here.  But now only worried about Q's over K's.  But in my gut I felt he had either AA/QQ or a hand like 99 here.  There are obviously few cards or reads I can pull out a fold to on river, but I am leaving that window open.  I flat behind, as this opponent WILL NOT slow down, so have best of both world on button.

£324 in pot £450 behind.  Opponent knows I'm strong here, myself being the only real TAG at table, he knows I must have at least a strong Q here.

Going to the river what direction are your thoughts flowing in?  Remembering this is a 3bet pot, being bet into OOP by a player who knows that your range is tight here, yet has still bet into you on two streets, even when the board nullifies a lot of hands and perceived strength, but also making it impossible to push a fellow deep stack off board when a K is certainly in their range, especially when opponent knows that I'm likely to bluff catch and manage the size of the pot from the button?

Thoughts welcome, but just to prempt slightly, with the context of hand and sat deep this shouldnt ever me a blind call to a big river bet IMO.

EDIT:  Not a blind call because if he does fire river  the only hand I can really beat is AA.  I've been taking alot of money off this guy week in and week out, he know I'm only playing a made hand at turn, so he only leads out beating me here I believe

BigBluster

I would be looking to get it all in. Sure, you'd hate AK, KQ, QQ or 77 but you'd love AA, AQ, JJ and many others. So far all you've done is a standard button raise, then called him down. You could do this with JT surely? Plus many other hands.

I find that no matter how much you grind a cash game, the whole night tends to get decided on a single hand like this (why I rarely play cash nowadays).

AMYBR

I wouldnt call at turn with 10J, he knows I'm not drawing here.  3bet pot, lead into through streets, paired board, auto much the 10J there, he knows this.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

I would be looking to get it all in. Sure, you'd hate AK, KQ, QQ or 77 but you'd love AA, AQ, JJ and many others. So far all you've done is a standard button raise, then called him down. You could do this with JT surely? Plus many other hands. I find that no matter how much you grind a cash game, the whole night tends to get decided on a single hand like this (why I rarely play cash nowadays).
Posted by BigBluster

This is the thing.  The first group of hands really should be the only hands he's barrell river with.  After being called on flop and turn opponent wouldnt bet AA/AQ/JJ type hands on river, likely not even turn.  But if he does have one of these calling down is the best line as mostly he wont slow down, but contrary to this I've been felting him over and over lately with nut hands, so he has become wary of getting to showdown with me.  With that in mind, there are very few hands I believe he'll fire river with, given history.

grantorino

I dont see how you can call pre if you are not happy to get money in on that board, unless he plays very straightforward postflop. I know you are deep but KJ is a horrible hand against a strong 3betting range

I prob call/call here, but you have a lot of reads. Assuming a blank river will he fire 3 times with AA,AQ? Does he 3bet KQ? Sometimes though people are more likely to get stuff like AQ in on turn than river. If I flat Im definitely shoving if he checks river

grantorino

Why do you think he doesnt bet AA,AQ on turn? That last post you made seems to contradict itself

After being called on flop and turn opponent wouldnt bet AA/AQ/JJ type hands on river, likely not even turn.  But if he does have one of these calling down is the best line as mostly he wont slow down

Im not sure what you are saying here

AMYBR

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

I dont see how you can call pre if you are not happy to get money in on that board, unless he plays very straightforward postflop.  Its just a question of what he's betting into me with, its very unlikely he's bluffing and he knows my range is going to be top notch when I call turn.  So if he does fire river, its unlikely I'm beating anything he bets with I know you are deep but KJ is a horrible hand against a strong 3betting range.  This is true, but its important to remember, we are now playing 5 handed, I have the button and opponent is deep and very very likely to make a big mistake in the hand.  So it is a profitable scenario here. I prob call/call here, but you have a lot of reads. Assuming a blank river will he fire 3 times with AA,AQ? Once I've called turn I believe he will only fire with a hand better than mine, I have been crushing him week in week out with nut hands aiotr at showdown, so he will be wary of my holdings Does he 3bet KQ? No, against me I think he'd rather keep the pot small pre oop.  Sometimes though people are more likely to get stuff like AQ in on turn than river. If I flat Im definitely shoving if he checks river.  I agree, if he checks river my concerns dissappear, but I think I was definately leaving a window open for hero fold on river, dependant on opponents betting action and vibe.
Posted by grantorino

AMYBR

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

Why do you think he doesnt bet AA,AQ on turn? That last post you made seems to contradict itself After being called on flop and turn opponent wouldnt bet AA/AQ/JJ type hands on river, likely not even turn.  But if he does have one of these calling down is the best line as mostly he wont slow down Im not sure what you are saying here
Posted by grantorino

Me and this opponent have history, as I mention in this thread.  He would be very wary of the turn K and be inclined to go into c/c mode I believe, especially as we are both sat over 300BB deep.  My range is top notch the majority of time, he is painfully aware of this, so I dont think he does bet AA/AQ at turn.

Yes there is the contradiction that you highlight, but am happy to keep the door open to both lines on river.  With a big pot on the line I dont have to definatevly make my mind up until I see him act on river, my though process being decided there, rather than at turn on this occassion.  So If I'm coolered, I have a window, if he's under estimated the strength of my hand (or overestimated his own) then he is doing the job of building the pot for me. EDIT:  Truly feel that any action he makes on river would help me make the correct decision.

Either way, I am controlling the size of the pot and pace.  Yes he has the betting lead, but on this occasion its more helpful than a hindrance (if I dont raise) as he's giving off a lot of information with his motion and sizings.

TommyD

As played and assuming as you say he will bet I'm looking to call on any non King or Queen river.  The only card to make me ponder is a jack because we are now huge but vulnerable to the KQ which I think turns up here a lot, but so does AK.  Essentially if I raise any river I might as well pick my king up and slap it on my forehead, no way should you be getting called by worse.

If you've made a misread and he doesn't bet the river I will be making a value bet but folding to a check/raise.  Probably.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

As played and assuming as you say he will bet I'm looking to call on any non King or Queen river. I'm not sure if you misread my holdings but a K gives be quads, a Q K's full for 2nd nuts? The only card to make me ponder is a jack because we are now huge but vulnerable to the KQ which I think turns up here a lot,   but so does AK. Agree  Essentially if I raise any river I might as well pick my king up and slap it on my forehead, no way should you be getting called by worse. If you've made a misread and he doesn't bet the river I will be making a value bet but folding to a check/raise.  Probably.  Yeah its a tricky one, with myself having only a pot sized bet left at river, I'd only be jamming, given how the action plays, as I cant bet half my remaining stack to get put in with a super sneaky check raise.  If he does check river I'm only jamming or checking back if my super weird vibe persists.  No real room for a value bet IMO.  Overall I think I'd lean towards the jam hoping AQ may cry call, but again depends what vibe i get.  I'll put up the river action later.  I mainly want to see peoples thoughts going to river to see if there was as much danger as I perceived in hand
Posted by TommyD

TommyD

I know the K gives you quads and the Q gives you the nut house on the river.  In these instances I'm raising on the river if he bets rather than flatting.  Sorry I didn't put it in but thought it was implied as it's the obvious route.

AMYBR

I figured thats what you must have meant, Me just being a plonker :P

TommyD

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

I figured thats what you must have meant, Me just being a plonker :P
Posted by AMYBR

nah, probably my fault.  End of a long week so I'm not quite on full capacity.

To summarise I'm looking to get to show down.  I think if he checks you can B/F a small value bet unless you feel he is capable of turning whatever hand he has into a river bluff.  If this is the case I would just check behind to avoid the headache.  I don't think I'm ever folding if he leads the river though.

AMYBR

Definately not capable of turning his hand into a bluff bud.  If he was to be weak, the jam would likely be best line on river against this particular opponent as he gets pot stuck pretty easy.  He knows I can easily turn my hand into a bluff there so likely would call off stack with AQ, as he's not huge on folding.

It turned out odd, J hits the river, so I mprove to K's over J's, but I'm still bringing along my read throughout the hand, being open to the potenial it might not be good enough. 

Opponent Insta jams with no thought process, no study, so I find it hard to believe I'm not winning.  If he did have Q's here I think he would have spent some time constructing a bet. I never felt like he had KQ in the slightest with the pre flop 3bet, only really leaving a bad jam with A's, or I've just sucked out hugely AK.

I call, he smugly flips AKs, I meekly flip the rivered boat.  I never felt like I was winning and I cant decide if I would have got away on a brick river.  I'd like to think that I would, as my spider sense had been tingling the whole way through, the concerns in this thread running through my mind during.

I just dont think I could put him on a hand that I was beating (especially given our history) if he had emptied the clip on a river brick.  This was the point of the post.

I really do think I'd of folded river, I think....  maybe 75/25.  Plenty of indicators that you not holding the winning hand at turn.

About time I sucked out on someone though
I dont think it ought to be an auto stack on river though, you?

grantorino

amybr, can I just try clarify your thoughts during this hand?

pre, his range is strong but I am ip and deep

flop, not too sure where I stand but flopped top pair so worth a call

turn, really dont like it when he fires again as I think he checks AA etc here, but not sure Im beat so call, think Im prob beat if he bets blank river, but want to see can I pick up tells

would this be a rough idea of what you were thinking?

You seem to have a crystal clear read your beat if he fires river, so I think its fine to go with it. If so should you maybe fold turn, if your not sure he bets worse and you are unlikely to improve? Or can you get enough of a tell from him from his river action to make the call worthwhile

The "spidey sense" aspect is hard to comment on on a forum obv. Im still not sure about pre though, will he make that many mistakes if he doesnt bet AA etc on turn

AMYBR

In Response to Re: NL200 line check, sat deep and mildly concerned:

amybr, can I just try clarify your thoughts during this hand? pre, his range is strong but I am ip and deep Pre the though process isnt that formulated here and it doesnt need to be. The only way I'm going to lose a significant amount of money is a pure cooler.  His hand strength isnt a huge concern here.  I'm not playing against a particularly skilled player who is likely to be hard to handle.  I am happy to peel off a 3bet flop here, not expecting much, but definately have enough of an edge over opponent to make this approach thoroughly profitable.  His hand is mainly immaterial.  I have position on a player who often totally misplays his hand post but is stacked.   flop, not too sure where I stand but flopped top pair so worth a call In honesty I felt I was behind on flop, but flopping TP HU and folding to one barrel is not the greatest idea longterm.  Mainly calling to see what action opponent takes at turn, often hand will be good, but also can get creative on later street where appropriate.  But also opponent bets alot of flops here, infact pretty much all with a huge range of holdings, many I'm beating. turn, really dont like it when he fires again as I think he checks AA etc here, but not sure Im beat so call, No turn I have to believe I'm ahead, if not likely stacking off in any case.  So If am ahead raising serves no purpose as opponent definately barrels river but folds to a raise.  If behind, its a much easier fold on river than turn, based upon knowing likely hands bet at river vs opponents perception of my range.  I think there is the potential to be beat the way the hand has played, being mindful of this going to river cheaply.  Opponent gives up many hands on river after I've called turn, so only really barrels if I'm beat, but cheap showdown when he gives up (or vb river myself). think Im prob beat if he bets blank river, but want to see can I pick up tells would this be a rough idea of what you were thinking? Pretty much, based upon solid knowledge of opponents tendancies.  He just isnt going to fire into me again there with a hand weaker than mine after I've called turn.  If he bets blank river I just cant see a hand that I'm beating the way the action plays.  You seem to have a crystal clear read your beat if he fires river, so I think its fine to go with it. If so should you maybe fold turn, if your not sure he bets worse and you are unlikely to improve? Or can you get enough of a tell from him from his river action to make the call worthwhile.  Folding turn was a consideration in hand as I thought his hand strength on this occasion could easily have been Q's.  Folding here was definately on my mind as I'm pretty tied to the pot on river.  I can fold if I work it through, but its going to be hard.  In many ways this was a bad call.  But yes, I would have gleamed the extra layer of info from any action he makes on river.  Being a large source of tells plus simply his ability to find a bet, because he would not empty the clip light.  Definately wasnt calling to improve.  He still has the potential to bet AQ/AA/99 here so I need to get to the river for final decision.  I dont think he would bet them, but he definately has the potential to do so. The "spidey sense" aspect is hard to comment on on a forum obv. Im still not sure about pre though, will he make that many mistakes if he doesnt bet AA etc on turn.  5 handed cash KdJd on button vs a mostly spewbox who you can control is always a good thing.  Only very very rarely will the hand get away from me.  If it was against someone who is going to make my life difficult post, I likely fold.  But the vast majority of the time I will be coercing the pot.  With respect, you cant just dogmatically stick to EV, playing poker  on a paint by numbers basis.  If you have an edge over someone there is nothing wrong with getting in there and leading them around by the nose.  Most often this hand will never get to showdown, there is no real risk here.  I will simply give away the minimum if I know I cant win the pot, yet maximise gains by controlling the pot and action vs this player type.  In many ways the holdings are immaterial.  Opponent just isnt skilled enough to cause me to put significant money in bad, his play being very polarised and straightforward, bet sizes often revealing his holdings.  His mistakes are more aligned with getting pot stuck and over committing + clearly missing then firing regardless.  Even in a spot where I'm that strong I dont essential pay him off on river.
Posted by grantorino

grantorino

I havent time to get into all that now but I vote that you are only allowed reply in one sentence answers from now on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Will get back to it later

AMYBR

am sure you will.......................

grantorino

first, I dont mind anything you did in this hand

pre is obv fine if you can play him like he has his cards face up. The only thing I will say is you are going to need to push him off hands a lot cos KJ doesnt fare well against a tight 3bet range. But it sounds like you can do this so it looks good

flop I dont think anything other than a call makes any sense

turn is where you confuse me, it seems in one sentence like you are saying he always barrells river with his entire turn betting range, in another it sounds like you think he only bets river with hands better than yours. Is it possible to give me a range you think bets turn , and the part of this range that bets river (from what you know when he bets turn, I realise its a grey area, saying stuff like he bets AQ sometimes but not always is fine) If you feel you will get more info from him by the way he bets or his river sizing thats part of the info you use in your decision

AMYBR

This is ist, the only range I can see him betting given history is a hand crushing me.  Equally however, his true to form game there really holds the potential to be 99/AQ/AA.  Its the fact that I have been putting a hurt on him so frequently for stacks that has to make me believa that against me especially, his game must be evolving, as he just ist that stupid. 

He hates my call at turn with all but AK/QQ/KQ as he knows he's beat otherwise (as he has reasonable knowledge of my hand strength there).  So once I have called turn his range has to be super thin to value bet river.

But this does translate back to turn as he know a K is clearly in my range after flatting flop.  Most hands that probe the flop AQ/AA/99 enter c/c mode against me oop given history and depth of stack.  Opponent knows I'm likely to exercise PC there.

I had a strong read at turn, just based on familiarity of play.  His betting motion and seeming confidence.  But my knowledge of his his OVERALL game cant dismiss that he could be alot weaker than I fear.  But again equally, if you've been felting someone lots, you have to begin to feel like they are learning from their mistakes (which I think he is).  The main knowledge he has gained is the likelyhood strength of my holding at showdown +calling through streets.

It really was an either or situation, where any river action would have helped more clearly define opponents hand.  My gut felt I was behind, but overall knowledge of player doesnt always make it so.  But the waters would definately clear on river.

Obviously if this hand is played online I get to the river about 100% sure I'm ahead.

grantorino

Once again do you think AA,AQ bet the turn (Im assuming everything that beats you does)?
If they bet turn and you flat do they bet blank river?
Does he ever bluff turn?

Im just not so sure why you arent making most of your mind up as to what you intend to do on river before you act on turn.  Obv if he gives you some read from his betting, body language etc that might change your mind.

From the way you are describing this it looks to me like a call turn/fold to non K, J river bet (obv bet if he checks) or even a turn fold. 

btw if you give an online opponent anything like these ranges you are nowhere close to 100% ahead