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Skill and luck in poker
hamster880
Member Posts: 142
Hi
I was reading a few articles on poker and if is should be classified with other gambling games (such as rollette or blackjack) or if it should be thought of as a pure skill game like chess.
I hear statistics ranging from 60% to 100% skill. I dont believe it is a pure game of skill (one article I read argued these lol). However, its seems to me that in the LONG RUN the skill factor becomes increasingly important.
I know this is a really difficult question to ask, but I was wondering how much skill vs luck do you think there is in poker. Do you think the skill level increases over time (i think most people would say yes to this)
Also, do think there is more skill involved in texas holem (no limit) than other forms.
Finally, it also seems to me the one of the most important (and hence skillful factors in poker), has nothing to do with the cards, or even how you play them - all pros need great bankroll managment skills. Do think the ability to manage your bankroll is the most skillful aspect to poker.
Just curious on peoples thoughts on this
Comments
I agree that your skill should come through the longer you play the game if your a winning player if thats what you mean?
Holdem you have to be very skilful IMO as there is more info out on this so there is not as much edge, other games are equally skillful but your average holdem player is alot better.
BRM is the most important skill i've only just started getting used to this and it affects how you play, also it takes into account variance which is key so is definately the most important if you dont want to go broke. for example give Phil Ivey £10 to play 1 tourney he will go broke most the time, instead if he played 30p-55p games he would have more chance to build it
Rather than give a random proportion of luck to skill like 80-20 or 70-30 i would take the question on differently.
In essence I might actually argue it is all skill, this is to say that in order to win in poker (and by win i mean over a huge sample size to consistently be a winning player) then you MUST have a skill edge.
The question in my opinion is not about 'luck V.s Skill', but instead VARIANCE V.s SKILL EDGE.
What is the ratio of Variance to Skill Edge???
In a cash game for example there are so many factors that effect your overall skill edge over a field.
A scenario where you might have very low variance and a huge skill edge e.g a 500big blind deep, 9handed cash game against beginners.
Basically i don't think luck in poker can be generalised and if you are looking for a conclusive figure you WILL be disappointed.. but to get an idea you need to estimate what effect variance has in the game your playing.
Long ramble..
Skill is a factor otherwise you will be all in pre every hand, obv a degree of luck is involved as you need to hit your cards alot of the time but the skill edge comes in on bet sizing pot controlling and betting players off hands your losing to.
tournaments in particular, some structures really dont lend themselves to 'skillful' play in that the blinds rise so fast correect play is to shove or fold very early on then it really comes down more to what cards you get or rather how your cards compare to the other cards held that hand
I would estimate in the short term, over a good few hundred cash hands or similar in a well structured tournament it would be about 60-70% skill 30-40% luck (total guess btw could be way off). But players often overestimate their skill edge imo
This is the same principle as the house hosting a roulette table. Over time, because the punters are constantly betting against the odds, they will make money.
However, this is only over a larger quota of hands. You do have to get lucky, or, rather, avoid being unlucky in each and every hand individually. After all, anyone can hit a miracle river card!
The odds however will look after you in the long run, you wont continue to get unlucky over time.
Trouble is, you have to have bank roll management skills to stop a bad run bankrupting you. Because everyone will hit a bad streak, just like a coin will hit 10 heads in a row if you throw it enough.
Impossible to quantify a percentage between skill and luck, but for certain there is a large element of skill.
Luck is a big factor as nobody wins a tourney without a bit of luck along the way and you have to win your races.
In contrast you will need more luck if your villian has the edge over you
Everyone is equally lucky, swings and roundabouts
Where skill is similar then variance will be applied )
To put a percentage on it I think it's more 10% luck - 90% skill
I don't think anyone can put a number on the luck factor, but luck certainly is a factor in the short term. That is where bankroll comes into it, Poker is about winning over time. You can be a great player but if you're playing higher than you should be for the money you have, then you risk going broke.
I also think guts play a huge part, calling for your stack with 2nd pair because you're 99% sure it's good or putting someone to the test for all their chips on a bluff when you know nothing else will win the pot.
skill and luck are a factor but just plain guts shouldn't be under-estimated either
Why you say that is there a similar strategy article??
Edit: just realised cos of my name..