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Folding AK pre: -EV long term?

DannyMcsDannyMcs Member Posts: 471
edited August 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Obviously I'm glad I mucked it but if I do this in this spot every time am I losing out on mucho dinero?

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
MIckeyB Small blind   £0.05 £0.05 £3.57
DannyMcs Big blind   £0.10 £0.15 £17.33
  Your hole cards
  • K
  • A
     
SHIPEMBOYS Call   £0.10 £0.25 £10.27
flame80 Fold        
V1 Call   £0.10 £0.35 £5.47
V2 Raise   £0.50 £0.85 £21.41
V3 All-in   £3.57 £4.42 £0.00
DannyMcs Fold        
SHIPEMBOYS Fold        
V1 Call   £3.52 £7.94 £1.95
V2
 Raise   £15.60 £23.54 £5.81
V1 All-in   £1.95 £25.49 £0.00
V2 Unmatched bet   £10.53 £14.96 £16.34
V3 Show
  • J
  • J
     
V1 Show
  • Q
  • A
     
V2 Show
  • 10
  • 10
     
Flop
   
  • 9
  • 5
  • Q
     
Turn
   
  • 10
     
River
   
  • 2
     
V2
 Win Three 10s £13.83   £30.17

I have no particular reads on V1 here, some post flops stuff but nothing relevant here really. V2 has been opening very few hands and usually showing down big pairs or AK, AQ, A9s up type hands. V3 has been nursing his short stack for 30 minutes, bleeding away but this is the first time he's shoved.

Obviously I'm not worried about V3 and will happily flip for that amount, but I had a strong sense it was going to get feisty...do I want to be in this pot or is it OK to not get involved?

Main reason I folded was I wasn't sure whether to flat or RR if I was going to get in it. If I RR and V2 james I put him on AA and have to fold. If I flat I'm basically praying for an A hi non-dangerous flop, but even then if it comes say AxJ or AxQ I'd be very nervous about the set or two pair, and don't think there'd be any controlling this pot once it got going.

What say you? Way too nitty for some I'm sure but all opinions welcome!


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Comments

  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited August 2011


    If there's a good chance that V2 will jam or 4b if you flat, then you can flat and snap off his shove...

    But I prefer just 4betting myself, you can even shove as u're only around 85xbb.

    I wouldn't be folding though ! shock horror ;)
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  • DannyMcsDannyMcs Member Posts: 471
    edited August 2011
    This is 10NL (moved down due to hooj bill/withdrawal), I'm on 173bbs.

    No surprises you get it in :) I probably would too if I was <100bbs, but with a decent profit so far and a villain mainly showing premiums who has me covered I really don't want to flip for it, assuming I'm even flipping.

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited August 2011
    ahhhhhhhhhhh I've done a YG and totally misread the hand. Sorry about that.

    I dunno then, playing deepstacked requires too much thought/skill for my mind. 

    I just find it hard to believe that anyone can have AA or KK when I have an ace and a king, so I wouldn't be folding. 

    I prob min 4bet/get it in. He can fold 77/88/99, probably TT and maybe JJ too. He could also spa zz with AQs maybe, but probs abit optimistic.

    either way, get it in and run good.
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  • DannyMcsDannyMcs Member Posts: 471
    edited August 2011
    Cheers JJ. Another 3-4 hours and a six pack and I'll probably be less risk averse :)
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  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited August 2011
    you're easily ahead of both of their ranges given that v2 is otb and v3 is shorting, easy shove imo
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: Folding AK pre: -EV long term?:
    you're easily ahead of both of their ranges given that v2 is otb and v3 is shorting, easy shove imo
    Posted by yb
    It's another 140xbb more to shove? - Would you never 4bet?

    Would u shove AA here also? 
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited August 2011
    I think you can profitably shove, but if you are called by V2 you are usually going to be a dog against his range. I certainly think this is going to be pretty thin given reads and I doubt folding is a big mistake
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  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: Folding AK pre: -EV long term?:
    In Response to Re: Folding AK pre: -EV long term? : It's another 140xbb more to shove? - Would you never 4bet? Would u shove AA here also? 
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    a min 4bet is going to be ~66 bb's, and I'd never be 4b/folding that big so I'd just shove.

    with AA it would depend on my image / what I thought of v2. I'd either be calling or shoving.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE Member Posts: 2,188
    edited August 2011
    since balancing at nl10 is 99% of the time useless, yb do you not think theres any credit in min4betting to look super duper strong and maybe get a hero fold from qq/ak?
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  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: Folding AK pre: -EV long term?:
    since balancing at nl10 is 99% of the time useless, yb do you not think theres any credit in min4betting to look super duper strong and maybe get a hero fold from qq/ak?
    Posted by LOL_RAISE
    idk, I think at 10 nl we have more fold equity if we shove in 170bbs than min 4betting. I think loads of weaker players would be much happier calling a min 4bet and seeing a flop with stuff like JJ/QQ than calling a shove. And it really sucks to play the flop oop if we miss.
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