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Weekend footy betting (20th/21st)
silentbob
Member Posts: 2,137
It the weekend again & time for another shot at taking some money off the bookies. I haven't managed to succeed at all so far this season but it's early days yet. I came close to a pay out last weekend but unfortunately Chelsea couldn't find a winner at the Britannia for me (& a shed load of others too I suspect).
Two bets to begin with for me for tomorrow although I'll probably add a both to score acca in the morning too.
Main Acca:
Sunderland/Newcastle - Both to score @ 10/11
Villa to beat Blackburn (H) @ 8/11
Reading to beat Barnsley (H) @ 4/7
Peterborough/Ipswich - Both to score @ 8/15
These 4 pay a very respectable 13/2 so well worth lumping a few quid on.
Since 2005 there have been 8 meetings between Sunderland & Newcastle & there's only been one clean sheet in all of those. Both sides are capable of scoring goals & despite Sunderlands weak forward line (imo) they've got a couple in midfield who can chip in as Seb Larsson showed at Anfield last week. Likewise Newcastle. They've had a difficult summer but they also have a few who know where the goal is, least of all Demba Ba. As ever I expect this to be a feisty affair & both will want early season bragging rights.
There probably won't be too many occasions where I back Villa this season but this was always gonna be one of them. They got a well earned point at Craven Cottage last weekend & Alex McLeish will be eager for a debut win at home to help get the fans onside. In the last 11 meetings between these two at Villa Park Villa have won 9, drawn 1 & lost only 1 in all competitions. In fact, their overall record against Rovers in that time ain't bad either. Home & away they've won 13, drawn 1 & lost 4 & 3 of those defeats came at Ewood Park. IMO Rovers are a side who could easily find themselves in real trouble this season. They've been awful since Steve Kean took over midway through last season & they got off to a bad start this time round too losing 2-1 at home to Wolves last weekend. Other than a leaky defence I just can't see where their goals are gonna come from on a regular basis. Jason Roberts has never exactly been prolific in the top flight & despite having a decent scoring record in Scotland, David Goodwillie is untried at this level. Rovers could surprise me & take something here but I think it's highly unlikely.
Reading very nearly made it back to the top flight last season but missed out when they lost to Swansea in the play off final. They've made a reasonable start to this campaign with 1 win, 1 draw & 1 defeat. They're usually strong at the Madjeski & despite drawing their opening game there with Millwall I expect them to get their first victory there against Barnsley. since they were relegated from the Prem back in 2008 they've met Barnsley 6 times in the league. Out of a possible 18 points they've taken 16 with 5 wins & 1 draw back in April 2009. Barnsley have made a terrible start to the season with just a single point on the board which came on the opening day at Forest. Since then they've lost home games against Southampton & Middlesbrough & were also dumped out of the league cup at the first hurdle at home to league 2 Morecambe. In their 4 games in all competitions so far they've only scored the 1 goal & even that was an own goal. It'll be a long trip back to Yorkshire for the Tykes tomorrow evening.
I said it last season & repeated it again this season. Peterborough are THE team to back in the both to score market. They've yet to keep a clean sheet in 4 attempts this season conceding 8 goals in 4 games so far. On the plus side, despite selling Craig Mackail-Smith they're still scoring goals for fun too with 9 in those 4 games. Ipswich have also started the season in a similar vein. They kept a clean sheet on the opening day when they beat Bristol City 3-0 at Ashton gate but have conceded in each of their 3 games since. They shipped 5 at home to Southampton in midweek so it's quite evident they've got defensive problems. The prices in the both to score markets are usually a lot closer then the 8/15 on offer here so that should speak volumes in itself.
Long Shot Acca:
Liverpool to beat Arsenal (A) @ 9/5
Swansea to bbeat Wigan (H) @ 11/10
Chelsea to win to nil (home to West Brom) @ evens!
MK Dons to beat Chesterfield (H) @ 8/11
AFC Wimbledon to beat Hereford (H) @ 8/11
Crawley to beat Torquay (A) @ 5/4
Stirling to beat Albion Rovers (H) @ 10/11
These 7 potentially pay a whopping 150/1!! Of course, there's a reason why it's 150/1 but every now & again these come in so only small stakes for a potentially big reward.
You have to go back to February 2000 since Liverpool last won away at Arsenal in a 1-0 victory. In the 13 games since they've managed 6 draws in all competitions. So on the face of it this long shot must be dead before it's even begun. Maybe. But then again it's not like they're never gonna win in North London ever again & now might just be that time as Arsenal seem ripe for the taking. They've lost Fabregas & it appears they're about to lose Nasri too. On top of that new boy Gervinho is suspended as is Alex Song whilst they have a further 6 first teamers injured or unfit. They looked nothing like the Arsenal of the last few years at Newcastle last week & whilst they managed a win against Udinese in the CL in midweek, Liverpool are a stronger side. They'll be disappointed not to have taken all 3 points at home to Sunderland last week so will be looking to make up lost ground here. Carroll is looking fitter & despite his awful penalty last week Suarez is still as deadly as ever. The new boys seem to be settling in well & all things considered this price is WAY too big to ignore.
If Swansea are to survive this season then they know that it's these sort of games that will do it for them. If they manage to take any points off the big boys home or away then they can be considered bonus points. They have to be beating the sides that are likely to be down the bottom with them & Wigan are certainly one of those sides. Being their first game at home the place is gonna be rocking & in Danny Graham, Scott Sinclair & Leroy Lita they're more than capable of getting the points here. Wigan have been flirting with the drop for the last few years now & with the loss of some key players this summer this could be the year they fall through the trapdoor. They'll be relying on Hugo Rodallega for a lot of their goals & if he's unfit or out of form then they're in trouble. They nearly stole all 3 points at home to Norwich last weekend but tbh I think it would've been harsh on Norwich if they had've done.
Since West Brom were first promoted to the top flight back in 2002 they've played Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on 5 occasions. Not only have they lost all 5 but they've yet to score a goal there. In fact, Peter Odemwingie's goal at the Hawthorns back in April was the first goal they'd scored against Chelsea in 4 games. West Brom have improved under the guidance of Roy Hodgson so I doubt they'll get a 6-0 spanking like last season, but I can't see them improving their record there either which makes the evens on offer here a seriously huge price.
MK Dons were strong at home last season & it was one of the main reasons they made it into the play offs. They stumbled there on the opening day this time round managing a 2-2 draw with Hartlepool but they should take maximum points from newly promoted Chesterfield tomorrow. They come into this game on the back of two wins on the road against Exeter & Yeovil so will want to build on that. Since winning promotion Chesterfield have stumbled at the start of this season. They've yet to win a game & despite a really good record at home last season they've only take a single point from the two games there this term thanks to a late injury time equaliser against Stevenage last weekend. If they're to survive this season then they'll need to win their home games as I can't see them having much joy on the road.
In their 3 games since promotion from the conference AFC Wimbledon have given a really good account of themselves. They were unlucky to lose their opening game at home to Bristol Rovers after battling back to 2-2 from 2-0 down only to lose to a penalty 5 minutes from time. They've won both of their games since against Dagenham & Plymouth with both victories coming on the road. They entertain Hereford tomorrow & they should really carry that fine form on to take the points. I said at the start of the season that Hereford will have a real fight on their hands to stay in the league this year & so far they're proving me right. Although it's still early days they prop up the division with 3 defeats from 3, 8 goals conceded & not a single goal scored. They were poor on the road last season & imo the best they can hope for this weekend is to get something in their goals for column.
Newly promoted Crawley were the pre season favourites to win this division & so far they've made a good start in trying to achieve that. Only an injury time equaliser prevented them from getting an opening day win at Port Vale but since that 2-2 draw they've won both their other 2 games 2-0 & 3-0 at home to Macclesfield & Southend. Away from home they are a risky pick but they've had the better of their battles with Torquay over the last couple of years. Other than their first ever meeting in the conference back in November 2007 when Torquay won 3-2, Crawley have won the 4 meetings since with 3 of them coming at Plainmoor (including last season's 1-0 win in the FA Cup). It won't be easy for them as Torquay have proved me wrong a bit so far this term but you're not gonna get a price this big on Crawley for the vast majority of their league games this season & as part of a long shot this must be included.
I don't usually bet too much on Scottish football but this looked like a cracking bit of value & well worthy of inclusion here. Stirling have got off to a cracking start to the season winning both their games including a 5-1 victory away to Dumbarton last time out. Albion have won 1 & lost 1 so far but there are two things that really stood out for me. Firstly Albion's defeat came on the road at Arbroath where they lost 6-2. Secondly you have to go back to April 2003 for the last time Albion beat Stirling. Since then they've met 6 times in all competitions & Stirling have win 5 of them.
Good luck if you're having a go peeps. I'll post up any more bets I do in the morning
Jay
Comments
villa
everton
brighton
derby
reading
away gamble 5e accum pays 270
wigan
cardiff
leicester
sheff utd
done both accums for half-time result also for 2e each 80e and 208e
correct score bookies basher
bristol city 2-2
hull city 1-1
southampton 2-1
carisle 1-1
mk dons 2-1
10 # 10c trebles
5 # 10c 4fold
1 # 50c accum = 16bets cost 2euro pays out on 3 correct,4 nice return and 5 bingo!!!!!!!!!
some day it will come in gl all with bets
Big problem is scoring and will be all season in open play. Gone for Bristol City intead.
You don't have an A3 sized printer!
going for over 40 booking points on the spread for west ham/leeds think it will be a highly charged game with a volatile atmosphere.