You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Weekend footy betting (15th/16th)
silentbob
Member Posts: 2,137
Thank God that’s another international break over with. We’re back to a full programme of games this weekend & with it the chance to try & find some decent value out there.
Three bets to begin with for me this weekend.
Main Acca:
Derby/Southampton – Both to Score @ 4/7
Middlesbrough to beat Millwall (H) @ 5/6
Crawley to beat Shrewsbury (H) @ 8/11
Torquay/Gillingham – Both to Score @ 8/13
These 4 pay a very appealing 7/1
Its 3rd Vs 1st at Pride Park tomorrow & it should be a very open game. Derby haven’t conceded too many on their own patch this term so far but Southampton play to win & never give up. The Rams have scored in every game at Pride Park so far & despite sitting top of the division, Southampton are vulnerable on the road. Their two league defeats this term have both come away from St Marys whilst they’ve conceded nearly as many as they’ve scored on the road too. I very nearly backed a home win here in my long shot cos 12/5 is a massive price for a Derby win but tbh I can’t really call this result.
Middlesbrough are currently in 2nd spot but like my boys they’ve struggled on home soil a bit this term. Although they’re unbeaten at the Riverside they’ve only won 1 of the 5 played there, drawing the other 4 (with the last two finishing 0-0 Vs Ipswich & Leicester). Millwall make the long trip to the North East tomorrow & they go into this game not only in poor form but also with the joint worst away record in the division. They’ve only one point from 5 away from the Den so far & have only picked up 2 points from their last 7 home or away. It appears they’ve forgotten how to score too as they’ve just a solitary goal in those 7 games. It about time Marvin Emnes found his shooting boots for Boro again & if he does this should be a comfortable win.
It’s 2nd Vs 4th at Broadfield where Crawley entertain fellow high flyers Shrewsbury. Crawley were superb at home last season losing only 2 from 23 there on their way to the conference title & they’ve carried that form over into this term. So far they’ve only lost once on home soil when Swindon won 3-0 a month ago. They’ve won the other 4 conceding only 2 goals along the way. They come into this game in superb form winning their last 4. Arguably it was Shrewsbury’s form on the road last season that cost them automatic promotion, dropping points in over half of them. Unfortunately for them they seem to have carried that form over into this season with 3 defeats & a draw away from Greenhous Meadow so far.
Along with Port Vale & AFC Wimbledon, Torquay are one of the great entertainers on home soil when it comes to goals this term. In the 6 games played at Plainmoor so far the paying punters have been treated to a total of 23 goals, averaging nearly 4 per game! They’ve only kept one clean sheet at home so far which came in a 3-0 win against Macclesfield at the beginning of September. They’ve both scored & conceded in each of the other 5 games. Gillingham have a similar record with goals this term only theirs have come on the road. With a total of 22 scored and conceded away from Priestfield so far it’s fair to say the Gills are vulnerable on their travels. In fact they’ve conceded in every game on the road so far. Both meetings last season finished 1-1 so recent history is also on our side.
Goals Acca:
Liverpool/Man Utd – Both to Score @ 4/6
Wigan/Bolton – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
Portsmouth/Barnsley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6
West Ham/Blackpool – Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
Brentford/Scunthorpe – Both to Score @ 4/6
Rochdale/Colchester – Both to Score @ 8/13
AFC Wimbledon/Crewe – Both to Score @ 4/6
These 7 potentially return a very juicy 36/1.
If there’s one thing United have shown they can this season its score goals. With 24 goals in 7 league games so far they’re averaging a little over 3 goals per game & even on the road it only just dips below 3 per game with 8 scored in 3 games. Being played at Anfield Liverpool are always gonna create chances. In fact they’ve scored at least twice in the last 3 meetings there.
Wigan & Bolton are two of the three sides I would love to see go down & at the moment it looks as though my wish may come true come next May. Both sides currently reside in the bottom 3 & are struggling to find any sort of form. Only 1 of the last 9 meetings between these two has produced more than 2 goals with 6 of those meetings either finishing 0-0 or 1-0. I doubt this’ll be a classic but if there’s money to be made then I’ll hold some interest.
Fratton Park is another place I don’t expect to see many goals tomorrow either. Both sides have struggled for goals so far & with both games finishing in 1-0 wins for the home sides last term I can’t see much to cheer on the South Coast tomorrow.
My boys have only kept 1 clean sheet at the Turrets of Doom so far this term & with Blackpool rolling into town tomorrow afternoon I’m not convinced we’ll improve on that. Thankfully we do have players who can score as well & I think this could be quite a high scoring game. Likewise Blackpool have only kept one clean sheet on the road so far which came on the opening day in a 1-0 win at Hull. It should be an open game & TBH I very nearly backed over 3.5 goals @ 7/4 but thought I’d play it a little safer.
Brentford have started their campaign well & currently sit in 8th place just 2 points off the play off spots. However they do have a tendency to leak goals & ultimately that may cost them a play off spot come May. Like Peterborough last season Scunthorpe seem to be the ones to back in the both to score market this year. In 12 league games they’ve only failed to score once (in a 1-0 defeat at Rochdale) whilst they’ve conceded at least once in all 12.
Rochdale are always a good bet for a goal or two at Spotland with only Carlisle preventing them from getting at least one there so far this term. However they’re always likely to concede as well & with Colchester in town tomorrow that outcome seems even more likely. So far Colchester have failed to score on the road only once this term when they lost 3-0 at Sheffield United.
AFC Wimbledon currently sit in 3rd spot in league 2 & whilst they may be winning games Terry Brown must be concerned with their leaky defence. They’ve yet to keep a clean sheet at Kingsmeadow this term although on the flip side to that they’ve only failed to score once in the 7 games there in all competitions. Crewe have certainly been more potent on home soil than on the road so far but they have improved & have only failed to score once in their last 8 in all competitions. They’ll have a good go when they make the trip South tomorrow & even if they fail to go home with any points they should at least add to their goals for column.
Big Long Shot Acca:
Man Utd to beat Liverpool (A) @ 7/5
Wigan/Bolton – DRAW @ 9/4
Barnsley to win or draw (away to Portsmouth) @ 4/5
Leyton Orient to beat Bury (H) @ evens
Charlton to beat Stevenage (A) @ 6/4
Preston to beat Walsall (A) @ 11/10
These 6 potentially return a bookie bashing 146/1 so only small stakes here.
United have lost on their last 3 visits to Anfield but with 6 wins & a draw in their opening 7 games this price is simply too big to ignore. United have a pretty much full strength squad to choose from & you kinda get the feeling that a certain Mr Rooney will go into this game with a point to prove & that could prove to be a match winner.
As I touched on earlier, Wigan & Bolton don’t exactly have a history of producing the most exciting games & with both sides struggling so far I think another stalemate is likely. 4 of their last 5 league meetings have finished all square & it’ll be a braver man than me to back a winner here.
Last term I wouldn’t have backed Barnsley on the road with someone else’s money let alone my own, but this term they’ve been picking up results. They’re unbeaten in 5 away from Oakwell so far albeit 4 of those have finished all square. Portsmouth come into this game on the back of 4 defeats in their last 5 & now find themselves managerless after Steve Cotterill left for Forest today. The 4/5 on offer in the double chance market here is cracking value imo.
I said it last week & I can only say it again this week. Orient are finally starting to get the results that their performances are deserving & with Bury making the long trip to East London tomorrow they’ll fancy their chances of getting a third straight win. In fairness Bury come into this game in decent form themselves with 3 wins & a draw in their last 3 but 4 of those points came at Gigg Lane & prior to this mini run they’d lost 7 in a row in all competitions.
Sooner or later Charlton are gonna lose a league game & my fear is that this could possibly be it. So if that’s the case why would I still back them here? Two reasons really. Firstly you simply can’t ignore the fact that they are unbeaten in the league this term & they travel to a Stevenage side who have really lost their way this term having lost their last 4 in the league. Secondly, taking all that into account this price is simply too big to ignore, especially if you’re including it as part of a long shot.
Preston are another side who have started well & currently sit in 5th spot 6 points off the top. However they do have two games in hand over all the sides above them. This is another game that has real potential to kill a few accas this weekend particularly when you take into account they lost their last league outing away at Leyton Orient. However, when you take into account Walsall’s failure to win any of their last 7 league games (4 defeats & 3 draws) this is another price that can’t be ignored.
Good luck if you’re having a go this weekend.
Jay
Comments
Correct Scores
Manchester City v Aston VillaManchester City 3-1 @ 10/1Newcastle v TottenhamTottenham 2-1 @ 8/1Chelsea v EvertonChelsea 2-0 @ 5/1Liverpool v Manchester UtdManchester Utd 2-1 @ 8/1good luck all
Also Barnsley are overpriced @ 4.20 away to Pompy. I will post my bets tomorrow in my thread
Liverpool 2.90
Man City 1.33
Norwich 2.20
Blackburn 4.50
Stoke 2.10
Chelsea 1.33
20 £1 trebles (pays £243.08)
£1 Accumalator (pays £107.18)
Lets hope I have some beginners luck!
£5 EW at 9-2
Tottenham and Bolton £4 double
Wolves 11/4 and Spurs 6/4 .8/1 DOUBLE