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now what?

pod1pod1 Member Posts: 4,377
edited November 2011 in The Poker Clinic
steelrodSmall blind £0.15£0.15£11.72
shawsokBig blind £0.30£0.45£29.31
 Your hole cards
  • 10
  • 10
   
dont_foldFold    
PERRAZICall £0.30£0.75£41.82
pod1Raise £0.90£1.65£37.22
westslay23Raise £3.30£4.95£36.91
steelrodCall £3.15£8.10£8.57
shawsokFold    
PERRAZICall £3.00£11.10£38.82
pod1Call £2.40£13.50£34.82
Flop
  
  • 7
  • 9
  • 10
   
steelrodCheck    
PERRAZICheck    
pod1Bet £6.75£20.25£28.07
westslay23Call £6.75£27.00£30.16
steelrodCall £6.75£33.75£1.82
PERRAZICall £6.75£40.50£32.07
Turn
  
  • J
   
steelrodCheck    
PERRAZICheck    
pod1Check    
westslay23All-in £30.16£70.66£0.00
steelrodAll-in £1.82£72.48£0.00
PERRAZICall £30.16£102.64£1.91

Comments

  • penguin7penguin7 Member Posts: 1,095
    edited October 2011
    Tricky spot. You must be behind but do you have the odds (and the bottle !) to put your £28 in?

    I think I would, but you know I dont play cash !
    May not have as many outs as you may think because JJ cant be ruled out.
  • pod1pod1 Member Posts: 4,377
    edited October 2011
    i need someone good at maths to work this out for me. the way i see it i got 10 outs to win and max 3 for a split and im getting 5to 1. (am i right so far?). scrub that i just put it in a poker calculator and its saying im  22% chance of winning and 2.82% of a split , worryingly it says im only getting 3.45:1. ffs i dont understand this??? help
  • huuuuumehuuuuume Member Posts: 569
    edited October 2011

    snap fold

    surely you realise wests in never shoving with a non nut hand here

  • PystermanPysterman Member Posts: 187
    edited October 2011
    You'd be paying £28 into a pot to win £130, which is about 22% so you need to win more than 22% of the time to make this a good call.

    I put this situation into a poker odds calculator and it says you win about 52% of the time here.

    However, the poker odds calculator will be running thousands of situations where your opponents are allocated RANDOM hands. It will NOT take into account the fact that these are hands that the opponents have been willing to stake a lot of money on. In other words, your opponents' hands cannot be considered completely random now since you have extra information. So, given the situation and the betting, there is a much greater chance you are behind here.

    Assuming you are behind, you have at most 10 outs, giving you a 22% of winning, making this a borderline call. However, as has been pointed out, you may well have less outs, if anyone else holds set for example.

    Of course, you may still actually be ahead here (though it looks unlikely) but up against 3 hands there would be plenty for your opponents to catch to beat you on the river (e.g. if someone holds a higher pocket pair).

    So... all things considered.. I would say this is a borderline call AT BEST. I would fold here (assuming I could work all that out in 15 seconds!).
  • pod1pod1 Member Posts: 4,377
    edited October 2011
    i agree its the time thing pysterman. huuume, i got westy on the 8 ob so i know im behind. , in all honesty had i jammed the flop it woulda took this problem away, dont know why i didnt. should i of jammed it and if i did was i jamming to protect ? god the more i look at this hand the more i hate it!

  • PystermanPysterman Member Posts: 187
    edited October 2011
    On such a wet flop against 3 hands I think I shove to protect.

    (Though, to be honest, in a 4-way pot, there would still be a good chance of everyone calling, especially if the first player calls.)
  • huuuuumehuuuuume Member Posts: 569
    edited October 2011
    dont forget to take into account how many blockers your opponents could have.  there could be a lot of 89 type hands that take away your paired board outs.

    its played fine imo...shoving flop is no good as you want action on all safe turn cards
  • davelufcdavelufc Member Posts: 1,374
    edited October 2011
    Just jam fella and  wait for a 7 or 9 or j on river lol.

    Hope you won hand.

    ps. I`m a gambler!!!
  • Batkin88Batkin88 Member Posts: 1,682
    edited October 2011
    as hit turn it's a fold, can westlay hold the 8 with the raise pre??? more likely AJ diamonds JJ or QQ you prob have all the outs you assume but still a very borderline call but with the call from Perrazi i would fold as i would put him on the 8 or more like 88
  • pod1pod1 Member Posts: 4,377
    edited November 2011
    folded in the end, just couldnt call the all in "knowing" i was behind with 1 to come. dumb a r ss river card as well lol!!
    steelrodSmall blind £0.15£0.15£11.72
    shawsokBig blind £0.30£0.45£29.31
     Your hole cards
    • 10
    • 10
       
    dont_foldFold    
    PERRAZICall £0.30£0.75£41.82
    pod1Raise £0.90£1.65£37.22
    westslay23Raise £3.30£4.95£36.91
    steelrodCall £3.15£8.10£8.57
    shawsokFold    
    PERRAZICall £3.00£11.10£38.82
    pod1Call £2.40£13.50£34.82
    Flop
      
    • 7
    • 9
    • 10
       
    steelrodCheck    
    PERRAZICheck    
    pod1Bet £6.75£20.25£28.07
    westslay23Call £6.75£27.00£30.16
    steelrodCall £6.75£33.75£1.82
    PERRAZICall £6.75£40.50£32.07
    Turn
      
    • J
       
    steelrodCheck    
    PERRAZICheck    
    pod1Check    
    westslay23All-in £30.16£70.66£0.00
    steelrodAll-in £1.82£72.48£0.00
    PERRAZICall £30.16£102.64£1.91
    pod1Fold    
    steelrodShow
    • 6
    • 6
       
    PERRAZIShow
    • J
    • 10
       
    westslay23Show
    • 9
    • 8
       
    River
      
    • 8
       
    steelrodWinStraight to the Jack£15.06 £15.06
    PERRAZIWinStraight to the Jack£42.89 £44.80
    westslay23WinStraight to the Jack£42.89 £42.89
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8 Member Posts: 6,228
    edited November 2011
    I think I prefer check raising flop especially after that pretty large 3bet pre, this allows you to get it in on flop when your a fave.

    As played have to fold.
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