need some maths tutoring i think. But inparticlar here

The_Don90

Right this table has been very tight. Ive basically widened up my range for NL4 opening lots in posision tbh without much resisitance. Then this hand crops up. Obv im sitting deepish. And im folding if im only 100BB deep fwiw. However with these little extra implied odds + posision + im closing the action. Can i flat and assess the flop? 

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
2puds	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£10.37
zappa12	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£4.75
	Your hole cards	4 4
trueguns	Call		£0.04	£0.10	£4.04
The_Don90	Raise		£0.20	£0.30	£5.66
MAW1990	Fold
2puds	Raise		£0.82	£1.12	£9.55
zappa12	Fold
trueguns	Call		£0.80	£1.92	£3.24
The_Don90	????

 

PiAnOpLaYa

you flop a set 1/8 so would need to stack both villains to make this +ev

Sometimes you will hit a set and still lose so therefore i think its a fold

Lambert180

That's got to be a definite fold.

Dudeskin8

I'd think limping a long would be better here at NL4.

You say table has been very tight if this is the case simply click the stand button and move to a looser table .

Lambert180

Yeah i mean I definitely don't open fold, I limp to the first limp but deffo a fold once you've been raised

DrSharp

Fold. I like one of the villains to haveat least 20x the amount i have to put in to make it profitable over time. You hit a set approx one in 7.5 flops but villains need to have much more than 7.5x the betsize for you to call as you never win the guys stack EVERYTIME you hit so if the villain has at least 20x the amount needed to put in to setmine, the times you do stack your opponent makes up for the times you dont and it makes it a more profitable move over time!

jugglegeek

As pointed out earlier you have around 12% chance of hitting a set. So assuming that you stack your opponent every single time you flop a set you need them to have roughly 8 1/3 times what the price is to call the three bet.

However we poker players also use common sense and we also know that a set doesn't guarentee you victory in the hand. nor does it mean that you will get all their money.

Against terrible players who can't fold pocket aces no matter how you play at them and however scary the board is then I work it out that you need the effective stack (after all pre flop action is finished) to be 10 times the price to call. Another safe assumption is that you are only going to stack one player.

Against tight players you really need them to pick up a piece of it too and they are also more likely to fold an over pair (which makes up most of their 3-bet range) if the board is scary or you are raising them.

It's 64p to go and the thoretical maximum you can win is around £10 but more relistically it's around £5 - £6 depending on who you stack.

Therefore you don't have the correct implied odds to call the 3-bet. If it was say a small 3-bet to say 56p then it is 36p to call and you can almost justify it. But really there aren't many times you can call a 3-bet with a small pocket pair and make it profitable over time.

grantorino

mostly covered above, you are only about 7.5/1 to flop a set. So if you call the 64p you need to win ~4.80 when you hit.  There is 1.92 in pot so you need to win another 2.90 postflop to make it profitable. As stated though you wont always win when you hit and people wont put in enough money on every flop. Generally a figure often quoted as a guide is you need 15/1 implied odds. However this needs to be adjusted to opponents. At 4NL where 3betting ranges are tight and villains are likely to go broke lighter postflop, you prob need villains to be less deep as you get their stack more often

rancid

Fold

tbh Don you can happily flat in EP with low-mid prs because your raise is only getting callers and no flop your going to like c-betting on so just set mine 100%. In this example you raise and get 3 bet you have to fold, where as if you just flat you can happily call a raise. You know at NL4 they will stack with TPGK so set mining is hugely profitbale and frankly they are golden.

If you are raising IP then 3x is fine to play position and I would say always raise late un opened, no point raising ep me finks. The only late position being long term profitable at NL4 is the btn btw )