10nl Flop, what to do?

iBLUFF

First day back and i get this hand,  im loving the flop, but he bets pot into it which he only does with big hands, big draws, what should i do?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
ristop	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£3.01
iBLUFF	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£13.83
	Your hole cards	9 10
xx	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£22.78
4pat5	Raise		£0.40	£0.65	£17.45
sydowdkid	Fold
TTayseer	Fold
ristop	Call		£0.35	£1.00	£2.66
iBLUFF	Call		£0.30	£1.30	£13.53
xx	Raise		£1.50	£2.80	£21.28
4pat5	Call		£1.20	£4.00	£16.25
ristop	Fold
iBLUFF	Call		£1.20	£5.20	£12.33
Flop
		J K 4
iBLUFF	Check
xx	Bet		£5.20	£10.40	£16.08
4pat5	Fold
iBLUFF	??

lynx3ffect

fold to the first pre flop raise, fold to the second pre flop raise....but as you end up getting to the flop and floping about as good as you could hope for just stick it in

iBLUFF

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

fold to the first pre flop raise, fold to the second pre flop raise....but as you end up getting to the flop and floping about as good as you could hope for just stick it in
Posted by lynx3ffect

Hmm seems your both saying the same about pre flop.. i personally dont think it was too bad of a call ?

RandomRiv

I may call the first raise. But im folding to the UTG limp re-raise.
On the flop....like Lynx said It's as good as a flop you could of asked for.....im getting it shipped

AMYBR

as played set him in.  When calling a 3bet here what more did you want than a flsh draw and gut shot?

Dont get me wrong, your draws are probably redundant.  But as played thats the spot you've put self in.

Def fold pre though, always.

iBLUFF

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

I may call the first raise. But im folding to the UTG limp re-raise. On the flop....like Lynx said It's as good as a flop you could of asked for.....im getting it shipped
Posted by RandomRiv

Ah right, see thats lack of awareness by me. I only just saw now that he limped utg then re raised... If i saw that i obv fold pre as he basiclly plays with his cards face up (massive bets with massive hands etc)

iBLUFF

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

i wouldnt of called the rersie preflop but as played id be happy to get it all in here u got flush draw and gutshot str8 draw i think the villain has put a strong bet on flop here either has aa or ak so u are not in bad shape if u go all in its pretty much a coinflip no poiint calling the flop bet for me its all in or fold but i wouldnt of called the raise preflop 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

Nice one, i personally put him on AK so called, but yes he did have AA. This isnt a brag post btw was intrested in what people put him on.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
ristop	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£3.01
iBLUFF	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£13.83
	Your hole cards	9 10
xxxx	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£22.78
4pat5	Raise		£0.40	£0.65	£17.45
sydowdkid	Fold
TTayseer	Fold
ristop	Call		£0.35	£1.00	£2.66
iBLUFF	Call		£0.30	£1.30	£13.53
xxxx	Raise		£1.50	£2.80	£21.28
4pat5	Call		£1.20	£4.00	£16.25
ristop	Fold
iBLUFF	Call		£1.20	£5.20	£12.33
Flop
		J K 4
iBLUFF	Check
xxxx	Bet		£5.20	£10.40	£16.08
4pat5	Fold
iBLUFF	All-in		£12.33	£22.73	£0.00
xxxx	Call		£7.13	£29.86	£8.95
iBLUFF	Show	9 10
xxxx	Show	A A
Turn
		8
River
		6
iBLUFF	Win	Flush to the Jack	£28.46		£28.46

AMYBR

Not to be rude, but winning here is immaterial.

Your call of his utg limp then 3bet of table is uber spewy.

Have to get it in on that flop though, given stack/pot/OP bet.

Glad it worked out on this occassion   (your a slight fav on flop btw).

RandomRiv

favorite???
Thought AA was 63%

XYZMALCOLM

I think we are in aggreement that you should really have folded preflop but since you are here its all in. You are in good shape unless they have ak of clubs. They may have missed or have AJ and so may fold  to an all in bet. If you just call and miss the turn you will not have the odds to call the next bet. 

AMYBR

9 flush outs + 3Q's

12 outs 52.8%.

only in this hand though as all your outs are clean.

Lolraise tells me this changes based on 12+ outs but its pretty clear cut here.

RandomRiv

When you said he was favorite, I thought wow is he. Checked it on odds calc from another forum and it come up 63% fav for AA. I swapped hole cards round so player 1 had AA and player 2 had T9s and it come back AA is 53% lol. Think I'll stop using that calc.
Now I know why im so bad lol

XYZMALCOLM

Hi, Just seen the actually hand so you were spot on. I think its about around 48% so yes a coin flip.

RandomRiv

I know if he had an open ended str8 flush he is favorite to an overpair but Amybr saying he was favortie with a flush and GSD made me wanna look it up.

AMYBR

Really is a beneficial tool.

When you have pokersoftware to do it for you I find it can disguise dangerous spots.

Knowing your clean outs/dirty outs, redundant draws and bad two pairs etc in combination to agression factors and boards is far better than being told them.  It kind of shuts the thinking element down for me.

Make a habit of running the numbers.  It gets very easy very quickly.

So much so that you store a range of %'s without having to even do the math.

To make correct bet sizing and to call bets on draws we really need this skill.

grantorino

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

9 flush outs + 3Q's 12 outs 52.8%. only in this hand though as all your outs are clean. Lolraise tells me this changes based on 12+ outs but its pretty clear cut here.
Posted by AMYBR

Where does that figure come from?. Seems pretty high. Rule of 4 gives 48%, I would think we are slightly worse in reality even if all outs clean

While being able to work out your odds is an important skill, pokerstove is excellent for calculating against a range of hands and takes account of dirty outs etc. Im not saying not to work them out yourself,you should and need to be able to, but pokerstove gives exact equities and, for me anyway , sometimes gives significantly different result than when I run rough mental calcs. Its a useful tool to run, as an extra to, not a replacement for your own calcs

As to the hand its kinda a meh spot in that he never folds, but flushdraw + gutshot in a 3bet pot, get it in. Pre is pretty dodgy though

AMYBR

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do? : Where does that figure come from?. Seems pretty high. Rule of 4 gives 48%, I would think we are slightly worse in reality even if all outs clean While being able to work out your odds is an important skill, pokerstove is excellent for calculating against a range of hands and takes account of dirty outs etc. Im not saying not to work them out yourself,you should and need to be able to, but pokerstove gives exact equities and, for me anyway , sometimes gives significantly different result than when I run rough mental calcs. Its a useful tool to run, as an extra to, not a replacement for your own calcs As to the hand its kinda a meh spot in that he never folds, but flushdraw + gutshot in a 3bet pot, get it in. Pre is pretty dodgy though
Posted by grantorino

Its slightly higher than the rule of thumb as the rule of thumb is just that, a blunt tool.

Change the 2% for 2.2% and you'll be in more accurate territory.

grantorino

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do? : Its slightly higher than the rule of thumb as the rule of thumb is just that, a blunt tool. Change the 2% for 2.2% and you'll be in more accurate territory.
Posted by AMYBR

2.2 is for one street, its still 4 for 2 streets afaik, open to correction though. Think that 4 drops slightly when number of outs is big (10+?). Not entirely sure on all that, doubt we are a favourite with 12 outs though

AMYBR

12+ I believe

For once I'd be interested for you to prove me wrong grantorino.  Rather than the burden of proof being on everyone but you.

grantorino

In Response to Re: 10nl Flop, what to do?:

12+ I believe For once I'd be interested for you to prove me wrong grantorino.  Rather than the burden of proof being on everyone but you.
Posted by AMYBR

Easy dude, just saying what I think to be the odds. Im not going to be able to prove anything they are just learned odds for me, I havent calculated them myself. I read somewhere before about the odds dropping when number of outs became bigger, cant remember it exactly. Pokerstove seems to back this up

Just dug out Phil Gordons little green book. It recommends using rules of 2 and 4 for approximation (although I have definitely seen that 2.2 figure somewhere as well), says it breaks down after over 15 outs, again think I've seen a smaller number of outs somewhere. It also publishes exact odds for numbers of outs , gives 12 as 46.7%. This seems a little weird to me because I would have thought it would depend on redraws

I'm not saying either that book or pokerstove are fully correct. My posts are just stating what I thought odds are, from figures I use. Nothing more. Could well be wrong