SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here----------> apply within

rancid

10 left
top four get entry to semi

I am chip leader

Really feel this is standard, no one folds here right
Only asking because I am chip leader but it's too early to nit up into the top four spots, yes/no ?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
welshy1	Small blind		400.00	400.00	4240.00
mmmchips	Big blind		800.00	1200.00	3945.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
rutherfo08	Fold
badboyardy	All-in		7045.00	8245.00	0.00
rancid	All-in		8290.00	16535.00	0.00
welshy1	Fold
mmmchips	Fold
rancid	Unmatched bet		1245.00	15290.00	1245.00
badboyardy	Show	A K
rancid	Show	Q Q
Flop
		9 4 Q
Turn
		K
River
		3
badboyardy	Win	Flush to the Ace	15290.00		15290.00

Jameskr

hand played itself just unlucky, he's shoving with worse a lot of the time imo

Talon

  Have read through the hand several times and though 90% of me says snap call there is still a part of me that can find a fold.

   The reasoning that leads me to this is the fact that you say you are chip leader but still have only 10 BB this means that every hand from this point onwards on both tables there will be an open shove from at least 1 spot. The aim in any satellite is survival not winning and with you being on the button this hand in the next 7 hands you will only have paid 1.5BB if you fold every hand(taking maximum time over every decision as well). This would leave you with 7-8BB (depending on any blind raises) during which time quite conceivable that 3 -5 players could have been eliminated. I also have a preference for shoving rather than calling, so i would rather go allin with 72o than call an allin with say 77, but that is just me.

  So as i said i am 90% calling in this spot but it is possible to fold but just not very easily. I know that without even seeing his hand that you are ahead of virtually all of his range for the shove and in good shape except against the the 2 hands you wouldnt want to see( which are 100-1 against either being out). You just got cold decked here and unfortunately that is the way poker can be at times.

Sky_Dave

I can certainly see the logic to Talon's thinking here, but I think I am calling about 98% of the time. I'd rather be moving in pre- than calling off in almost all situations (Gap Theory by Sklansky and all that jazz), but Q-Q is simply too big a hand to put down. 

Let's say villain is shoving with a range that looks something like....

ATs+

AJo+

66+

KQs

Q-Q's equity against that range is 65%, and that's against a VERY tight shoving range. 

You're a bit unlucky to be facing a 50/50 flip (when it could have easily been 70/30 vs say A-Jo) and even more unlucky to lose it. As Talon says though, that's the way poker can be sometimes.

UL and hope you run a bit better in the next one.

rancid

In Response to Re: SPT SAT TO THE SEMI QQ facing all in:

I can certainly see the logic to Talon's thinking here, but I think I am calling about 98% of the time. I'd rather be moving in pre- than calling off in almost all situations (Gap Theory by Sklansky and all that jazz), but Q-Q is simply too big a hand to put down.  Let's say villain is shoving with a range that looks something like.... ATs+ AJo+ 66+ KQs Q-Q's equity against that range is 65%, and that's against a VERY tight shoving range.  You're a bit unlucky to be facing a 50/50 flip (when it could have easily been 70/30 vs say A-Jo) and even more unlucky to lose it. As Talon says though, that's the way poker can be sometimes. UL and hope you run a bit better in the next one.
Posted by Sky_Dave

Think this is the most likely range TT+,AQs+,AQo+, which is about right and tight
I am 55% v this so......
Jamming this through ICMIZER with a custom config and it's telling me to fold :S
Not sure I am doing it right though!
Even if it does say fold because it's just not correct, in game it just feels right to call with QQ
If I was the shover then it states only shove with QQ/KK/AA

Dudeskin8

If it was 9 seats easy fold, but just 4 paid super quick snap call.

Mohican

Would love someone with ICM expertise to analyse this as I think it will say that in this spot and the chip equity you have,that it's a fold. As always, those who can prove me wrong are welcome to do so and are welcomed as I'm always willing to learn new stuff. Don't forget that in a sat like this and blinds creeping up quick and everyone with less than 10bb's, 3 or 4 bb's can be enough to have fold equity, so you have plenty of time.

rancid

In Response to Re: SPT SAT TO THE SEMI QQ facing all in:

Would love someone with ICM expertise to analyse this as I think it will say that in this spot and the chip equity you have,that it's a fold. As always, those who can prove me wrong are welcome to do so and are welcomed as I'm always willing to learn new stuff. Don't forget that in a sat like this and blinds creeping up quick and everyone with less than 10bb's, 3 or 4 bb's can be enough to have fold equity, so you have plenty of time.
Posted by Mohican

I hear ya, I tried running this through an icm gizmo but I have only limited experience - but it did say fold

If someone could run it through an icm then good ya ?

£5,60 SAT 20 runners top 4 get seat (1 in 5)
There's 10 left

jugglegeek

I too think it's a difficult fold. You don't show the other players' stacks but I'd wager that he is 2nd in chips. With 8-9 BBs his range is going to be pretty tight and the idea is to eliminate the small stacks, not go to war with the big stacks.

In his possition with the chip leader to his left the range you give him TT+ and AQ+ is about right I think. You say you are 55% against this with QQ which happens to be pretty much your odds against exactly what he has (53.7% for the record). How happy are you when he shows AK?

Think I would struggle to fold here though but that's why I don't play DYMs or sats.

I wonder what are the odds of you qualifying if you were to have left the computer just before this hand and went to the shops for a pint of milk and came back?

potattoooo

i think id call this 1 pretty quick tbh

jimifloyd

In Response to SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here----------> apply within:

10 left top four get entry to semi I am chip leader Really feel this is standard, no one folds here right Only asking because I am chip leader but it's too early to nit up into the top four spots, yes/no ? Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance welshy1 Small blind   400.00 400.00 4240.00 mmmchips Big blind   800.00 1200.00 3945.00   Your hole cards Q Q       rutherfo08 Fold         badboyardy All-in   7045.00 8245.00 0.00 rancid All-in   8290.00 16535.00 0.00 welshy1 Fold         mmmchips Fold         rancid Unmatched bet   1245.00 15290.00 1245.00 badboyardy Show A K       rancid Show Q Q       Flop     9 4 Q       Turn     K       River     3       badboyardy Win Flush to the Ace 15290.00   15290.00
Posted by rancid

You can only work with the info you have so......

At the time of the descision you have to open the lobby and get the stack sizes of all 10 players,then put the players from the second table into your calculations by making them inactive players in your senario eg make them all folded players from UTG to the player rutherfo08 then plug in OP range,your hand and top 4 prize pool 25%.

rancid

In Response to Re: SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here----------> apply within:

In Response to SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here---------- /> apply within : You can only work with the info you have so...... At the time of the descision you have to open the lobby and get the stack sizes of all 10 players,then put the players from the second table into your calculations by making them inactive players in your senario eg make them all folded players from UTG to the player rutherfo08 then plug in OP range,your hand and top 4 prize pool 25%.
Posted by jimifloyd

cheers, wondered if I should be doing this

thanks

from what I remeber from the stack sizes it says FOLD, only call with AA/KK if shoving range is TT+,AQ+, which is 5% of range
I have only entered rough stack sizes but it's near enough from having the lobby open during the latter stages

oppo assigned shoving range below is neutral EV
44+,A8s+,A9o+,KQs

Intresting, but does it still make it a bad call even though it's -EV

jimifloyd

In Response to Re: SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here----------> apply within:

In Response to Re: SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here---------- /> apply within : cheers, wondered if I should be doing this thanks from what I remeber from the stack sizes it says FOLD , only call with AA/KK if shoving range is TT+,AQ+, which is 5% of range I have only entered rough stack sizes but it's near enough from having the lobby open during the latter stages oppo assigned shoving range below is neutral EV 44+,A8s+,A9o+,KQs Intresting, but does it still make it a bad call even though it's -EV
Posted by rancid

Like i said its a post game reviewing tool and you got as close to the calling range as you could possibly be, so i think the call was fine,i still call BTW your too far away from the payout and have 10 bbs .

YOUNG_GUN

you have 10bigs with 6 more ppl left to bust easy call here UL

rancid

In Response to Re: SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here----------> apply within:

In Response to Re: SPT SAT - ICM Expert required here---------- /> apply within : Like i said its a post game reviewing tool and you got as close to the calling range as you could possibly be, so i think the call was fine,i still call BTW your too far away from the payout and have 10 bbs .
Posted by jimifloyd

cheers jimi/YG

That was my thinking aswel, can't pass QQ here no matter the icm thingy tells me )
10 left all between 3-10 bigs - SHOVE FEST