In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call? : IF VILLIAN ALWAYS HAS A SET HERE A SHOVE IS MINUS EV, IF WE ALWAYS GET IT IN AS A 40% DOG THEN IN THE LONG RUN WE LOSE MONEY... Posted by NColley
A) Never said shove.
Why are we assuming opponent ALWAYS has set?, would be silly.
C) We are not a 40% dog. 8 hearts 6 straightners 14 outs 2.2 x 14 x 2 = 61% Even shaving 2 outs off gives us a slight edge @ 51%.
We need to look at the hand realistically. We raise UTG, flop the world and then look to lose the Minimum? Are we really going to be giving up if we miss turn.......Sigh...
In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call? : A) Never said shove. Why are we assuming opponent ALWAYS has set?, would be silly. C) We are not a 40% dog. 8 hearts 6 straightners 14 outs 2.2 x 14 x 2 = 61% Even shaving 2 outs off gives us a slight edge @ 51%. We need to look at the hand realistically. We raise UTG, flop the world and then look to lose the Minimum? Are we really going to be giving up if we miss turn.......Sigh... Posted by AMYBR
Look at crazyben/huuume's posts, 2 players both say this guy only has a set here.. huuuume says this guy never raises a FD/1 pair or 2 pair.
50% you say?
--- 5,940 games 0.080 secs 74,250 games/sec
Board: 5h Ah 4c Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.202% 40.20% 00.00% 2388 0.00 { 7h6h } Hand 1: 59.798% 59.80% 00.00% 3552 0.00 { 55-44 }
What's our equity if you build in AK/2 pair hands? Making 1 pair isn't gonna be good anyway, does it improve 'that much' if we take away his re-draw? Even a better flush draw aint a great result for us? Posted by DOHHHHHHH
Don't think we are better off even versus btm of range - AK (think 45/55) - obviously versus bluff we golden but....._) Someone do the stove bit :S
edit: colley done it ) Think range is too wide - only AK seems resonable to raise here
Well I'm kinda chuffed this post has opened up such a debate. My most popular thread by far...
Seems the decision here really boils down to our basest tendencies, the more nit like take the less aggressive line, the aggro guys would go shove with it...No denying that its a -EV move though...PokerStove never tells fibs.
Be nice if I could post a hand where I actually win and get a similar response
Just for arguments sake we lead call flop with the world draw.
We generate a pot of £28.11 with effective stack of £53 back going to turn.
What are we doing @ turn when brick hits? (We obv arent folding flop). Are we c/c ing to c/f river when given direct odds? Or are we dredging along with 50% less equity when he bets £19 - 22? Or given implied odds are we going to call a larger bet regardless?
This is my issue with the hand, not oppo FE when we shove flop. It will be our own tendancy to flat another street regardless on a brick, or struggle to get value on a ridic obv board on turn/river.
Just for arguments sake we lead call flop with the world draw. We generate a pot of £28.11 with effective stack of £53 back going to turn. What are we doing @ turn when brick hits? (We obv arent folding flop). Are we c/c ing to c/f river when given direct odds? Or are we dredging along with 50% less equity when he bets £19 - 22? Or given implied odds are we going to call a larger bet regardless? This is my issue with the hand, not oppo FE when we shove flop. It will be our own tendancy to flat another street regardless on a brick, or struggle to get value on a ridic obv board on turn/river. Posted by AMYBR
normally i am happy with the shove on the flop. if i was the villain in the hand you would a shove would be 100% correct
the points myself and ben are making are completely villain dependent because we have played thousands of hands with him and he is never folding and never losing in this spot.
all points made are completely relevant in most situations....just not against this villain. his range is so polarised that it changes our thinking on the hand and despite having a huge draw we still arent favourite to win the hand
Comments
C) We are not a 40% dog. 8 hearts 6 straightners 14 outs 2.2 x 14 x 2 = 61% Even shaving 2 outs off gives us a slight edge @ 51%.
We need to look at the hand realistically. We raise UTG, flop the world and then look to lose the Minimum? Are we really going to be giving up if we miss turn.......Sigh...
In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:
Look at crazyben/huuume's posts, 2 players both say this guy only has a set here.. huuuume says this guy never raises a FD/1 pair or 2 pair.50% you say?
---
5,940 games 0.080 secs 74,250 games/sec
Board: 5h Ah 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.202% 40.20% 00.00% 2388 0.00 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 59.798% 59.80% 00.00% 3552 0.00 { 55-44 }
---
Depends on your read on oppo, could be raising a range of hands but without reads you have to say top of range – set = -EV
If oppo is only raising here with top of range then it’s vey easy for us to play this hand versus this oppo
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44,550 games 0.001 secs 44,550,000 games/sec
Board: 5c 4h Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.928% 49.93% 00.00% 22243 0.00 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 50.072% 50.07% 00.00% 22307 0.00 { 55-44, AKs, A5s-A4s, 54s, AKo, A5o-A4o, 54o }
---
Someone do the stove bit :S
edit: colley done it ) Think range is too wide - only AK seems resonable to raise here
Seems the decision here really boils down to our basest tendencies, the more nit like take the less aggressive line, the aggro guys would go shove with it...No denying that its a -EV move though...PokerStove never tells fibs.
Be nice if I could post a hand where I actually win and get a similar response
Pretty sure that the 50nl regs would be saying something similar to what they did 'this guy always has a set here'
we prob dont have fe in this spot
We generate a pot of £28.11 with effective stack of £53 back going to turn.
What are we doing @ turn when brick hits? (We obv arent folding flop). Are we c/c ing to c/f river when given direct odds? Or are we dredging along with 50% less equity when he bets £19 - 22? Or given implied odds are we going to call a larger bet regardless?
This is my issue with the hand, not oppo FE when we shove flop. It will be our own tendancy to flat another street regardless on a brick, or struggle to get value on a ridic obv board on turn/river.
Sir, I concur.
If we miss, then we miss )
the points myself and ben are making are completely villain dependent because we have played thousands of hands with him and he is never folding and never losing in this spot.
all points made are completely relevant in most situations....just not against this villain. his range is so polarised that it changes our thinking on the hand and despite having a huge draw we still arent favourite to win the hand